Only a day after the action on Mr Ruto was executed, Mr Kalonzo and Mr Uhuru separately put up notices in the Press to dispel the notion that they were reluctant to join and support the ‘Yes’ camp.
In what to some is tantamount to a public pledge of loyalty to the President, Uhuru took out a personal full page advert to declare that he would vote ‘Yes’, while Kalonzo wrote a prime page commentary declaring: "To avoid doubt, let it be known that I support the Draft… and eventual promulgation of the of a new constitution…"
Kibaki caught his lieutenants by surprise — and contrary to their expectations — when he dropped Ruto from the plum Agriculture Ministry on Wednesday, and replaced him with Aldai MP Sally Kosgey, an ally of Prime Minister Raila Odinga. Ruto was relegated to the less glamorous Ministry for Higher Education, Dr Kosgey’s former station.
Ruto’s right hand man, Belgut MP Charles Keter, was also dropped as Assistant Minister for Energy and replaced with another Raila loyalist, Kipkelion MP Magerer Langat.
Oblique warning
Many had missed an oblique warning by President Kibaki just hours before Ruto’s relegation to the Ministry for Higher Education on Wednesday.
In his Kiswahili remarks after reading his official speech at the National Cohesion and Reconciliation Elders’ Conference at the Bomas of Kenya, Nairobi, the President warned politicians steering the ‘No’ campaign thus: "Wewe huwezi kujiendeleza kwa style hiyo…lakini utajiendeleza kwa kufanya kazi na mimi (you may not advance yourself in that fashion but you can make progress by working with me)".
The veiled threat is now being seen as a warning shot to his ministers to toe the line or face the consequences. Former Cabinet minister Mukhisa Kituyi reckons that Uhuru and Kalonzo have lost the political war.
"The two are wasting political capital by giving conditional support to the Proposed Constitution… The PNU package is more pronounced in the draft than the ODM package. ODM wanted a parliamentary system and strong regions, while PNU wanted a presidential system and counties without regions. PNU was the chief proponent of fair representation, which has been captured in the Draft.
"But it is PM Raila Odinga who has given the document unequivocal support and saved the day, while Kalonzo and Uhuru are dragging their feet and giving conditions. They won the technical battle, but have lost the political war," said Dr Kituyi.
And Dr Carrey Francis Onyango, the deputy director at the Centre for Multi-Party Democracy (CMD), said: "The action against Ruto was a subtle message, a warning to the KKK Alliance.
"By cracking the whip, the President is sending a message that he will not allow anyone to stand between him and the legacy he wishes to leave behind… Even the PM has said that Kenya must move to the next level, even if the people do not get all they wanted in the draft. One cannot please all the people all the time," Onyango said.
In the political circles, Kibaki’s move hit like thunderbolt, coming exactly one month after his first born son, Jimmy, went to the North Rift to publicly declare that the President had a lot of confidence in Ruto’s hard work and vision.
Jimmy declared Ruto his father’s "best performing minister" on March 21 and April 21, Kibaki moved him from the Agriculture docket. "Ruto is one of the best performing ministers who should be rewarded, not sacked," Jimmy had said when he presided over a fundraiser at Turesia Girls Boarding School in Keiyo South.
The big question then remains — what has transpired between that period and now? Just what informed Kibaki’s decision and why did he act at this critical moment in the calendar of the constitution making process?
Kibaki rarely ever demands that people toe the line, and has tolerated numerous characters that have called him names but remained in Government.
Ruto’s demotion was the second time in three years that President Kibaki had disregarded his close lieutenants and taken bold decisions against their expectations, or even advice.
In 2008, the President went ahead to embrace the formation of the Grand Coalition Government with his fiercest opponent, Raila, against vicious opposition from his PNU aides, among them the VP, Uhuru, Environment Minister John Michuki and former Justice Minister Martha Karua.
Sweet potato
All of them believed that Kibaki had won, and advised Raila to take up his position as the leader of the Official Opposition in Parliament.
At one point, Michuki wondered publicly: "Can power be shared like a sweet potato?"
Then, Kibaki wanted to stop post-election violence that threatened to snowball into a civil war.
This time around, and in spite of serious reservations against some provisions in the Proposed Constitution, the President seems to have opted to send a strong signal that he and the PM were committed to the ‘Yes’ campaign, the last chance he has to salvage a decent legacy, and the KKK (Kalenjin, Kikuyu, and Kamba Alliance) trio would stand in his way at their own peril.
Since the Proposed Constitution was passed by Parliament, Uhuru and Kalonzo had adopted ambivalent positions, neither saying ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, but publicly expressing sympathy with the Eldoret North MP who has emerged as the most vocal proponent of the No side.
Uhuru had last week issued a statement saying he would neither campaign for the ‘Yes’ nor the ‘No’ side, a position that left many baffled coming as it did after President Kibaki and Raila had hit the road on the ‘Yes’ campaign.
On his side, the VP too had remained ambivalent, never coming out to state what he thought was good or bad about the Draft.
While pundits agree that Uhuru and Kalonzo had personal grudges against the PM over his role in shooting down of their presidential bids in 2002 and 2007, they had been caught in the dilemma of either keeping off or opposing the ‘Yes’ campaign, thereby undermining both the President and the PM, or signing in and ‘risk’ accelerating the PM’s momentum as the face of the ‘Yes’ campaign towards 2012.
A source close to PNU circles said the VP and DPM Uhuru had little choice but to bite the bullet and support the President in the ‘Yes’ vote.
"When push comes to shove, the President has done what he needs to do, and sided with the Prime Minister if that advances his interests. Kenyans respect retired President Moi for agreeing to hand over power peacefully and ensuring a peaceful transition. President Kibaki’s legacy is hinged on the delivery of a new constitution.
"The energy and resolve he has shown suggests he may not care whatever Kalonzo or Uhuru thinks of the PM, they either toe the line or they may have to find something else to do," said the source who sought anonymity.
Cherang’any MP Joshua Kutuny, however, said the President still had a soft spot for Ruto as he had stopped short of what the PM may have desired.
"The PM wanted Ruto sacked, Henry Kosgey to take over Agriculture, Prof Margaret Kamar to take over from Dr Sally Kosgey, who was in turn supposed to take over from Henry Kosgey at Industrialisation. However, the President evidently had other ideas and our enemies did not win," he said.
"They (Kalonzo and Uhuru) dread the PM running away as the face of the new constitution, and they may wish to stop that.
"Unfortunately, in the minds of Kenyans, the PM has been more consistent and vocal in demands for reforms and new constitution for many years than them. It would be difficult for anyone to take that away from him," observes Kenya National Human Rights Vice Chair, Mr Hassan Omar.
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