President Uhuru Kenyatta takes the oath of office as First Lady Margaret (R) holds a bible during the official swearing-in ceremony being led by then Chief Registrar Gladys Shollei at Kasarani Stadium. Photo/REUTERS.
In four years, Kenyans will vote to either keep or boot out Uhuru Kenyatta as their Commander-in-Chief. With alarm bells already sounded, party politics and realignments in TNA, ODM and URP are fueling a heightened state of treacherous wheeler-dealing that is sending the President’s handlers into a state of hyperactivity.
Going by recent political movements, Uhuru’s men have every reason to be concerned. Since taking office, his presidency has had to deal with one goof after another. From the Westgate Mall terror saga to the botched suppressive media he is battling a lot of negative publicity.
Recent attacks on the Judiciary and new fears surrounding the tendering process for the standard railway gauge project have only served to strengthen public opinion that he is not doing enough to make his government accountable to the wishes of the people.
But perhaps the most discomforting is the prevailing perception among the Kalenjin that in Uhuru's government, there is no promise of fairness. The Kalenjin are also well aware that Uhuru needs them and that without their vote, his dream for re-election immediately becomes shaky.
This level of unpredictability with the Kalenjin, real or hypothetical, leaves Uhuru very unstable. His opponents including Raila are on the sidelines, waiting to share in the spoils. The question therefore, is how Uhuru will navigate these hard times in order to retain his seat come 2017.
While detractors may start the party early, I, on the other hand, would urge caution! Raila and company must particularly tread carefully. Uhuru might appear unsteady, but it would be foolish for anybody to imagine that he will be a pushover come 2017.
For a start, he is a very powerful President. After successfully managing to put the ICC case behind him, Uhuru has shown that he is anchored by a tactful advisory team. Coupled with the benefits of incumbency and the unwavering support from Gema, he starts as the clear front-runner in 2017.
The stakes in 2017 are also likely to be extremely high. After the rude-awakening orchestrated by the 2013 general elections, the experimental attitude that presidential aspirants adopted towards the constitution 2010 will fizzle out.
This means potential candidates like Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, Eugene Wamalwa, and Evans Kidero are likely to seek out coalition agreements with the ‘Big Two’ and in the process, are likely to offer Uhuru a lifeline in the event of a fallout with Ruto.
However, it is Ruto’s erratic political maneuvers that makes it nearly impossible for Uhuru to accurately project the dynamics of the 2017 race. Like Raila Odinga, Uhuru’s game-plan will rest on events that are dependent on Ruto’s moves. Any third party alliances will similarly depend on this. After all is said and done, several scenarios could play out as follows:
Scenario 1: UhuRuto remain united in 2017. This marriage has been characterised by a lot of infighting already. Naysayers, particularly those in ODM, continue to pray for this marriage to fail.
But like every other couple, Ruto and Uhuru seem to be experiencing normal marital disagreements that could be handled amicably by the two coalition partners.
A united Jubilee in 2017 is Uhuru’s dream. Though distant, it is his best guarantee for re-election and I believe his lieutenants are more aware of this than anything else. This remains Plan A for Uhuru’s men.
Scenario 2: Ruto runs for president, backs Raila in the 2nd round. Should Ruto continue in his current trajectory; however, we should expect him to run for president in 2017.
This would immediately get us a three-horse race. The ramifications of this decision will be a major political earthquake that would immediately put Uhuru’s presidency in real danger.
A three-horse race would most probably result in a second-round of voting. In the very unlikely event that Ruto chooses to throw his weight behind Raila Odinga at this stage, it would complicate things for the son of Jomo.
Despite the availability of both Mudavadi and Kalonzo as part of Plan B, a Ruto-Raila coalition in 2017 would most probably kick Uhuru out of office.
Scenario 3: Ruto runs for president, backs Uhuru in the 2nd Round. While a Ruto-Uhuru ticket in scenario 1 would provide a typical electoral contest comparable to the 2013 vote, scenario 3 would result in an Uhuru landslide win comparable only to the 2002 win in which Kibaki won resoundingly against Uhuru. It would leave Raila vanquished.
Like in scenario 2, this scenario not only relies on Ruto’s strategic game-plan for 2022, it also relies on Ruto’s unexpected gesture of kindness and acts of pure political altruism.
Scenario 4: Raila does not run, supports Uhuru Kenyatta. This scenario, though unimaginable, remains very possible. Ruto’s alleged influence on ODM’s internal matters, though unproven, has left Raila petrified.
Also, the former Prime Minister does not seem amused by reports that Ruto is making steady forays into areas traditionally perceived to be his strongholds. Should Ruto succeed in winning a respectable chunk of the Western and the Coastal vote, he could leave Raila seriously weakened.
A resurgent Ruto would automatically become an enemy of both Raila and Uhuru and depending on events, could drive both Raila and Uhuru into a political union. Such a union, though unthinkable, could be the only way out for the two political giants.
We are bound to witness many political realignments that will heavily tilt the dynamics of the 2017 contest. Either way, I think Uhuru should be relatively comfortable as he ponders his re-election plans.
Willis Alala is a Development Analyst at New York University.
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