NAIROBI; KENYA: Two of the country’s most popular political vehicles, the Jubilee coalition and the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), have revised their projections of victory after assessing the outcome of the just-ended voter registration.
Going by these revised projections, Jubilee Alliance candidate Uhuru Kenyatta predicts that he will beat his strongest challenger Raila Odinga by eight percentage points, while CORD claims its flag bearer will secure eight of the 14 million based on the final number of listed voters announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission when the registration ended on December 18.
In a document titled, A Report on the Analysis of the Registered Voters and the Predictions thereof, voter registration has formed the basis of determining which regions of the country the Jubilee has prioritised to bring in the vote.
This comes just days after CORD released a statement predicting that its flag bearer Raila Odinga would secure eight million votes from the 14 million registered voters with at least 29 Gubernatorial seats going to parties associated with this grouping.
The CORD statement signed by Cabinet ministers Mutula Kilonzo, Anyang’ Nyong’o and MP David Eseli, indicated that CORD was well positioned to win 29 senate seats, 160 seats in Parliament, in addition to getting representation from 30 women’s representatives.
“We expect, given the level of support for our various parties, to win the presidential election with more than eight million votes, at least 160 parliamentary seats, and 29 seats each for governorships and the Senate.
Projections
CORD will also win more than 30 women seats and gain the majority in more than 31 county assemblies,” read part of the statement.
However, Speaking to The Standard On Saturday by phone, Jubilee member and Dujis MP Aden Duale said: “Based on the new voter register, and based on our projections because the data is clear, and not forgetting past strengths, we are telling our competitors that 34 counties will be taken by Jubilee without any doubt.”
However, analysis based on the latest popularity survey by independent opinion pollsters Ipsos Synovate in different regions of the country indicate that CORD could take 26 counties with Jubilee coalition scooping 21, although at least seven counties can swing either way.
The Jubilee Alliance has segmented the country into three zones – stronghold counties, swing vote counties and hostile counties.
However, CORD hopes to sweep all the counties within former Nyanza Province, Rift Valley except the Kalenjin-dominated regions, Coast Province, North Eastern, Western and Lower Eastern.
Strongholds
According to the document, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has been allocated between 58 per cent and 90 per cent support in counties Jubilee believe is in its strongholds.
They include Uhuru’s home turf Kiambu (90 per cent), Muranga (90 per cent), Nyandarua (90 per cent), Nyeri (90 per cent), Kirinyaga (90 per cent), Meru (85 per cent), Tharaka (85 per cent), Embu (85 per cent), Laikipia (80 per cent), Nakuru (80 per cent), Isiolo (60 per cent), Kajiado (65 per cent), Marsabit (50 per cent), Wajir (58 per cent), and Mandera (58 per cent).
Similarly, Uhuru has been allocated between 40 per cent and 80 per cent support in counties where Eldoret North MP, the deputy prime minister’s running mate William Ruto is considered to enjoy considerable support.
They include Uasin Gishu (80 per cent), Elgeyo Marakwet (80 per cent), Nandi (80 per cent), Baringo (80 per cent), Bomet (80 per cent), Kericho (80 per cent), Turkana (48 per cent), Samburu (40 per cent), Narok (55 per cent), West Pokot (65 per cent), and Garissa (58 per cent).
The report gives the CORD alliance between 80 and 99 per cent in Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice- President Kalonzo Musyoka’s backyards and 80 per cent in western Kenya.
Jubilee lists CORD’s stronghold counties as Migori, Siaya, Homa Bay and Kisumu (99 per cent each), Kitui, Machakos, Makueni (94 per cent each), Vihiga, Kakamega (80 per cent each), Busia (99 per cent) and Trans Nzoia (70 per cent).
Whereas Jubilee coalition, according to the document, can only manage one per cent in Kisumu, Migori, Homa Bay and Siaya counties, it hopes to score between 30 and 52 per cent in the swing counties of Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Kisii, Nyamira, Tana River and Taita Taveta. CORD, the Jubilee report predicts will score between 45 and 65 per cent in the same areas.
Threshold
Interestingly, only Nairobi has more than half a million-registered voters in regions identified as battlegrounds.
In fact, the latest Ipsos Synovate polls indicated that both coalitions are neck to neck at 45 per cent in popularity in the Kenyan capital.
According to the Ipsos survey, a close contest is expected in Eastern Province where the coalitions popularity is tied at 44 per cent.
Other battleground where both coalitions are likely to face off includes West Pokot, Nairobi, Narok and also Baringo County because of the presence of former ruling party Kanu.
Some counties, though crucial in meeting the mandatory threshold 25 per cent support in at least 24 counties, have recorded as little as 51,380 (Lamu) in the number of registered voters.
Speaking to The Standard On Saturday, Prime Minister Raila Odinga presidential secretariat Director of Political Affairs Ngunjiri Wambugu said the 29 county seats would be won in counties that have traditionally supported the premier.
“Basically, the idea is to get the maximum votes we can possibly get in all the 47 counties. That is what ODM Mashinani campaign is about. But the 29 seats we hope to win in the senate are from areas that have traditionally supported our presidential candidate, he said
The latest Ipsos Synovate survey released on December 14 further indicated that 47 per cent of respondents were comfortable within the CORD grouping, 41 per cent supported the Jubilee Alliance while another 12 per cent were undecided.
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