The Raila factor

The Raila factor

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Updated 2 hrs 48 mins ago

By STANDARD TEAM
The gas pedal of Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s political vehicle is pressed to the floorboard but the road to State House is bumpy, unpredictable and thorny.

As he makes what many perceive to be his last stab for Presidency, albeit with four of his fiercest critics plotting how to stop him, Raila by his words and actionis sending out one message: He will fight to the bitter end and is leaving nothing to chance.

Barring any changes to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission March 4, 2013 date for the national exercise, it is just eight months to election, and therefore the race is getting hotter and the contenders more determined to make the best of the time left.

Raila, who still leads in opinion polls no doubt faces the stiffest opposition, especially given the four other key contenders have serious grudges against him, this week launched his campaign website.

He also hosted last night a Sh100, 000 a plate dinner-cum-fundraiser. And, this weekend he has a long campaign programme in the Rift Valley, where he is taking the battle to the doorsteps of Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

Apart from Ruto, the other three contenders who have misgivings about their past dealings with Raila, and whose actions in the coming months may determine if it is one of them who would be at State House or they would all lose to Raila are Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi, and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

For the time being, the four are campaigning separately for themselves and their own parties, but even in this set-up, Ruto, Uhuru and sometimes Kalonzo maintain they are forging an alliance within which they hope to produce a joint or compromise presidential candidate.

Very likely this is the G7 Alliance, which for the last few months Kalonzo has stayed away from, likely because of the suspicion Ruto and Uhuru, along with some of their allies, hold that he is an opportunist waiting to reap from the possible derailment from running by International Criminal Court.

But this may no longer be an issue, not only because Ruto and Kalonzo shared a platform recently, but also because ICC prosecution did not resist the bid to have the cases tried in after March elections. The Judges are yet to rule on the matter.

Force a run-off
But two interesting developments among the politicians perceived to be keen on all running to force a run-off against Raila, after which they would back the one closest to the PM whether as number one or two, have drawn national attention.

First, it is Uhuru’s search for an alliance with Mudavadi, capped by the elders he sent to him in May in Kakamega, and growing pressure in his Central backyard to work with Mudavadi, who was his running mate in 2002. This has not gone down well with Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa, who is now building a new political home.

Also believed to have been stunned by this move, was Ruto, whose supporters were baffled by the mild reception and low attention he was accorded during Uhuru’s launch of The National Alliance in May.
It was shortly after this that Ruto, too, had a private meeting with Mudavadi, against the backdrop of unverified claims he had also been in secret talks with Raila, brokered by a former top State House official during the Kanu regime.

Secondly, because it now looks more likely ICC would not stop Ruto and Uhuru from running, the duo’s game plan said to have been anchored onto picking of a ‘compromise’ candidate, seems to have lost premium. This is probably why the two politicians are busy building their different parties – TNA and United Republican Party.

But because of the bitter circumstances in which the four parted with Raila, it is expected that they would campaign as much for themselves as they would against Raila, who remains their most formidable opponent.

This is what underpins the ‘Raila Factor’ in the coming elections, and at the same time could determine if the four leaders would finally team up under one party to fight the PM.

Interestingly, all the four politicians were first with Raila when his National Development Party joined the Jogoo party in 2002.

When former President Moi handpicked Uhuru to be the ruling party presidential candidate, Raila led the walkout. The exit had such big names as the then immediate former VP, George Saitoti, Kalonzo, Joseph Kamotho, and for a short time, Mudavadi himself.

Betrayal
They all joined Raila’s Liberal Democratic Party, which later merged with President Kibaki’s National Alliance of Kenya, to form the National Rainbow Coalition. The Coalition whitewashed Kanu in the 2002 December elections.

Left behind in Kanu, alongside Uhuru and Mudavadi, was Ruto, who was Kanu director of elections. The Eldoret North MP, however, teamed up with Raila in 2007, but started edging away shortly after the power-sharing deal was signed.

Following differences with President Kibaki from 2003 over his betrayal of a MoU signed with the Raila side, culminating in the showdown in 2005 referendum, Raila and Kalonzo were kicked out of the Cabinet, and were soon in one political camp with Uhuru. Mudavadi was not on the political radar then, apparently still smattering by his humiliating defeat following his belated return to Kanu.

However, though Uhuru and Kalonzo later abandoned Raila, Kenyatta to back Kibaki, and Kalonzo to run on his own party from which the Raila group had been forced to abandon, history brought all of them, including Mudavadi who in 2007 returned to Raila’s fold, under the quarrelsome Grand Coalition Government.

It is from this forced ‘marriage’, that the five politicians, alongside retiring President Kibaki, may determine the pace and direction of the General Election. 

They will be walking out to either face one among them, or break into pairs to fight for the ultimate prize – State House.