2012 could be the year of our turning point in history and sanity in politics

Barrack Muluka

After the stroke of midnight, tonight, we shall usher in a significant year, 2012. It is a year that could make us, or break us. We collectively hold the key, as the Kenyan nation. Whether we use it for our shared national good or ruin depends on whether we have taken any lessons from our past, or not.

As I wrote last week, I expect us to welcome the New Year with pomp and circumstance. It should almost be as if it was the acceptable year of the Lord that the Biblical Prophet Isaiah spoke of in the early postdiluvian era. As stated earlier, it should almost seem as if times have their own natural gravitas.

They have natural flow and energy that should bring us good things with little or no effort on our part. Lady Margaret Thatcher, formerly Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, often lampooned our expectations in Africa. She would say that we like things that require effort, but we are unwilling toinvest in the effort.

Prof Chinua Achebe calls it the culture of the cargo cult. That is to say that we expect a benevolent ship of plenty to dock at our harbour of hope. That is why it would seem normal to scream away the passing year, while ushering in the new one, without thinking that it will require effort on our part to make the New Year memorable.

As a student of history, I have often been reminded of the expression "a turning point in history." It is a notion that was made famous by such historians as CBE Seaman and Trevelyan, who focused significantly on the often-traumatic transformation of Europe from the Congress of Vienna in 1814 to the Treaty of Versailles in 1918.

The significant issue is that every so often there comes a moment and events that could turn a people’s history. But quite often, too, history fails to turn. History is therefore replete with turning points where history failed to turn. This is because history does not just turn itself. It is turned.

The year 2012 is an epochal year, a turning point, for the Kenyan nation. Whether history turns or not depends solidly on us – the Kenyan people. Away from concerns about the Ocampo Six, whose fate shall meet a significant moment in the next two or so weeks, we have defining elections this year. It is not so significant that the elections will come in August or in December.

In point of fact, the elections could very well come in December without the need to change the Constitution. Hopefully the courts shall soon rest this matter and we shall not need to spend so much energy on it.

But I digress. The point is that we are on the brink of history making elections. We are set to have two retired presidents in the civilian population with our fourth president in power. But will this change things for the better? In a sense this is in itself a gain, something to celebrate. We are establishing the tradition of democratic succession.

But we need to go beyond that. We need to put in place leadership that builds on the gains that we have made under the Kibaki presidency. It is a presidency under which the democratic space has expanded, while the national economy has also grown. Both the hard and soft infrastructure has improved while justice and governance institutions are on the mend.

However, that is just about as far as it goes. In human indices terms, poverty has grown apace. If the economy has been growing hand in glove with poverty, it is clear that the rich have got richer while the poor have got poorer. President Kibaki’s economic growth is therefore not viable, not sustainable. It is bound to implode.

This presidency has often been accused of cronyism and many other negative isms. It borders on injudicious and unhygienic use of state power. The John Githongo idiom "it is our turn to eat" will keep on coming up, wherever the Kibaki era is discussed in future. It is an unfortunate slur on this presidency. But it is also the reality.

So who will be our next president? Is his or her office going to be another gravy train full of homeboys and home girls? The political formations that we have so far seen in the dying year have not been inspiring at all. We still talk in terms of tribal voting blocs and blocks. We think in terms of politicians with deep pockets. This combination indicates that we are not yet ready to turn our history. If, as before, the competition shall be between tribal parties, each one with a tribal kingpin whom the whole tribe must fear and worship, then our history shall not turn. Put very simply, salvation for the Kenyan nation lies in looking beyond a handful of top politicians who are essentially tribal brands.

Raila Odinga is a top tribal brand. William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka arrive on the ballot paper with the marks and aroma of top tribal brands. They will need to work very hard in the coming months to shake off this image and the substance beneath it. If they do not, then our history will miss the turning point that is 2012.

But the bigger challenge rests with the voter. If you are going to vote for him or her just because of tribal affiliation and money, then brace up for more difficult years ahead. It is Albert Einstein who has been credited with saying that insanity is when you keep doing the same thing the same way and expecting different results.

Hopefully the year 2012 could be the year of Kenya’s sanity. This is provided that we do it differently this time. If we are not ready to change, then we scream "happy new year" in vain. Here, therefore, is wishing you a happy new year. God bless.

　

The writer is a publishing editor and media consultant