Uhuru camps lock horns

By Gakuu Mathenge
A scramble for the ownership of Uhuru Kenyatta’s brand name is causing anxiety and divisions in the Kibaki succession wars.
Two camps have emerged, each seeking to grab a piece of Uhuru’s name, either as candidate or a kingmaker.
One features diehard Uhuru supporters who want the scion of the founding president to roll out his own campaign, arguing his association with PNU is bogging him down. They say PNU has many old guard and tainted leaders who are adding little value to his quest for presidency.
Sources say Uhuru will officially "announce his intention to run" for president on July 30 in Gatanga. Nationwide tours and rallies would then follow. But it is not clear if Uhuru would also name a political party, or would stick with Kanu and the PNU Alliance. The other group, mainly composed of ‘Kibakists’ is pushing for a ‘consensus’ candidate from joint nominations, involving PNU crown princes under the PNU Alliance.
They are Vice-President, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru, George Saitoti, and Eldoret North MP, William Ruto. Mr Ruto is also ODM deputy party leader.
The political differences between the two camps exploded this week when the head of Uhuru’s secretariat in Lovington, Alfred Gitonga, and PNU strategist, Peter Kagwanja, exchanged hostile text messages accusing each other of "putting Uhuru’s strategy at risk". The vicious battle also featured senior civil servants, among them a Permanent Secretary.
Rivalries between traditional Kibaki supporters, and Uhuru diehards have come out, each seeking to elbow the other in the battle of who gets ahead in the Kibaki succession plot.
The opinion poll by Strategic Research and Public Relations released on Friday found that Uhuru is Prime Minister Raila’s strongest challenger. This could intensify the scramble for Uhuru in the pro-Kibaki camp.
About 12 months to the next General Election, they are yet to agree on a strategy for the contest.
The Lavington group favour a run-off option where all regional kingpins and party leaders run in the first round, hoping no one wins the legal threshold of 51 per cent in 24 counties to be declared winner. This would make a second round necessary, hoping Uhuru emerges first or runner-up to qualify for second round.
However, the PNU mainstream that coalesces around President Kibaki favours a strategy like what the National Rainbow Coalition used in 2002.
"A run-off will take us back to 1997, where all party leaders ran in their regions, but former President Moi emerged winner with a minority vote," Minister for Energy, Kiraitu Murungi, says.
"In the light of violence sparked by run-offs in Ivory Coast, Guinea Bissau and Zimbabwe, this is not a viable option for Kenya. It is also foolhardy to imagine you can forge a winning coalition in a month, having failed to do so in five years," PNU strategist, Kagwanja says.
Boardroom anointmentKagwanja adds: "Those pushing for Uhuru to dump PNU Alliance are stuck in 2002 mindset of candidates being anointed in boardrooms and imposed on voters. They want Uhuru to own a party where he would not be challenged. I believe wise counsel would prevail," says Kagwanja.
But Uhuru supporters think the PNU Alliance joint strategy is dead, and there is no magic that could bring Uhuru, Kalonzo, Saitoti, and Ruto under one roof for joint nominations.
"Talking joint nominations is delusion. The supporters of this route only do so with the hope of being endorsed. Uhuru, Kalonzo and Raila failed to apply it in 2007 in ODM; it won’t work. We should be honest and let all aspirants find running mates and run. Let the people decide," Uhuru’s associate and Kanu national organising secretary, Justin Muturi, says.
Uhuru’s think-tank in Lavington is said to be jittery over invasion of traditional Kibaki blocs in central Kenya and PNU-leaning regions by internal forces.
Internal forces include Planning Assistant Minister, Peter Kenneth, and Narc-Kenya leader, Martha Karua. The two have declared intentions to vie for president. They are viewed as chopping away Uhuru’s political supremacy in central Kenya.
The Lavington group is seeing Safina leader Paul Muite, who was on Friday endorsed by his party to run for president, as part of the internal forces challenging Uhuru.
Apart from Karua, Kenneth and Muite, the Lavington group points at the inroads being made by UDM, and ODM around Mt Kenya, Coast, and North Eastern as cause for alarm.
They say Uhuru needs an independent party machine to sell himself outside PNU, to have the same advantage Kalonzo, Ruto and Raila enjoy. Although Uhuru is Kanu chairman, he is not in control of the party. There has been talk of him acquiring a party or forming one if Kanu clash over recruitment is not resolved.
But PNU Alliance’s game plan is to approach presidential and General Election as a formation, under a joint candidate.
The alliance also seeks to rope in Ruto, the de facto leader of UDM, and New Ford-Kenya and Saboti MP, Eugene Wamalwa.
Small parties"Time is not on our side. But whichever party he runs on, Uhuru welcomes competition and is willing to back whoever wins," said ally, Kigumo MP, Jamleck Kamau.
But Kinangop MP and convener of the Small Parties Forum, affiliates of PNU, David Ngugi, cautions: "Winning PNU nominations is not enough if we pick a candidate who flops at the ballot box. We must look for a candidate who has national appeal."On Saturday the PNU Alliance think tank, under the G7 umbrella, meet in a Naivasha hotel to fine tune nomination rules ahead of kicking off recruitment and election campaigns, next month. But Kanu organising secretary, J B Muturi, who is a member of the panel, had told The Standard On Sunday he wouldn’t attend the meeting.
"There is hypocrisy. People talk of joint nominations while promoting their parties. These are old tricks of using boardroom tactics of picking candidates.
"Uhuru is a brand. Kenyans know him, and what he stands for. We should let the people decide," said Muturi.
But the alliance chairman Titus Ibui said the alliance was soldiering on and had established negotiations with UDM.
"We have held intensive consultations with them and we keep them updated," Ibui said.
The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) shadow is also hanging over Uhuru’s head. His supporters hope ICC judges would not confirm crimes against humanity charges filed against him by Prosecutor Moreno Ocampo.
Pundits say either way ICC goes; Uhuru would be a critical player – as a candidate, running mate, kingmaker, or a spoiler.