Poll: Uhuru is Raila's main challenger

By Mutinda Mwanzia 
An opinion poll has shown how the political landscape is shaping up a year before the General Election; with indication Prime Minister Raila Odinga is likely to be President if elections were held today.
The mid-year opinion poll released Friday by Strategic Research and Public Relations showed that Raila enjoys most support as the preferred presidential aspirant, followed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.
Raila polled 42.6 per cent against Uhuru’s 21.4 per cent, followed by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka at 9.5 per cent. Other presidential hopefuls, William Ruto polled 8.3 per cent followed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.
Raila polled 42.6 per cent against Uhuru’s 21.4 per cent, followed by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka at 9.5 per cent. Other presidential hopefuls, William Ruto polled 8.3 per cent followed by Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua with 7.8 per cent. Musalia Mudavadi, Eugene Wamalwa, Peter Kenneth, George Saitoti and Charity Ngilu polled 2.8, 2.1, 1.9, 0.8 and 0.6 per cent.
Most of the presidential aspirants got their highest support from the home counties.
Yesterday, Strategic Chief Executive Officer Caesar Handa said the opinion poll was conducted in 35 counties, through a face-to-face-administered questionnaire.
Raila got huge support in Nyanza at 80.9 per cent followed by North Eastern, Coast, and Nairobi at 66.7, 61.6 and 47.9 per cent. The PM got the lowest ratings in Central, Eastern, and Rift Valley at 14.2, 21.0 and 32.6 per cent.
Uhuru got his main support in Central and Nairobi at 58.3 and 25.2 per cent.
Main support
Kalonzo, who trailed Raila and Uhuru in the polls, was most popular in Eastern at 32.8 per cent.
The opinion poll showed that in a straight contest involving two candidates, Raila would still beat the camp that has sought to form a coalition against him. In a straight contest between Raila and Uhuru, the PM would garner 51.2 per cent against the DPM’s 42.6 per cent.
"Raila would win over Uhuru by a slight margin," said Handa.
The survey showed that if Raila and Uhuru were to contest against each other for president, the PM would get most of his support from Nyanza and Western at 88 and 73 per cent. Uhuru’s main support would mostly be in Central and Eastern at 82 and 64 percent.
The poll showed that in a straight contest between Raila and Ruto, the PM would garner 54.8 per cent of the polls against Ruto’s 36 per cent, while between Raila and Kalonzo, the PM would garner 53.8 per cent against the VP’s 38 per cent.
The poll showed that in a straight contest between Raila and Wamalwa, the PM would garner 59.5 per cent of the votes against Wamalwa’s 30.4 per cent. If Raila contested against Karua, the PM would garner 51.3 per cent against Karua’s 38.8 per cent.
The poll also showed that a presidential race between Mudavadi and Uhuru, the Finance minister would garner 50.6 per cent against Mudavadi’s 38.5.
Handa said that the poll showed that Uhuru was Raila’s most serious rival in the presidential race.
If a straight contest was held between Ruto and Mudavadi, the Eldoret North MP would garner 44.3 per cent against Mudavadi’s 43.4 per cent.
On party popularity, the pollsters said that 45.3 per cent of those interviewed rooted for ODM while PNU, ODM –Kenya, and Kanu were rated at 23.5, seven and 5.2 per cent.
The poll also showed that 49. 6 per cent of those interviewed said they would not re-elect their MPs.
"Only 24 per cent of Kenyans say they are very likely to vote back their MPs," said Handa.
He added that the dissatisfaction among voters with their MPs was due to their reluctance to pay taxes and failure to show commitment in the implementation of the Constitution.
On the G7 alliance that revolves around Uhuru, Ruto, Kalonzo and Wamalwa, 57 per cent of those interviewed said they did not believe the alliance would work.
Only 40 per cent believed the alliance would work and they were willing to support. The alliance according to the poll enjoyed its main support in Central and Rift Valley at 65 and 54 per cent.
On the preferred presidential candidate for the alliance, Uhuru emerged top with 46 per cent, followed by Ruto, Kalonzo and Wamalwa at 22.5, 16 and 5.9 per cent.
Meanwhile, 40 per cent of those interviewed termed the enactment of the new Constitution as its biggest success.
The poll showed that the Government achieved a 25 per cent approval for constructing roads, while it polled 13 and 8 per cent for free secondary education and bursaries for poor students and fighting corruption and impunity, respectively.
Handa, said North Eastern province showed the greatest level of satisfaction with the new Constitution at 73 per cent.
Nairobi, Central and Eastern provinces showed the highest satisfaction with the Government in the construction of roads at 41, 36 and 31 per cent respectively.
Those interviewed said the Government biggest failure since the last elections was failure to tame the rising cost of goods and services.
24.6 per cent of those interviewed felt that the State had failed to effectively fight corruption, with 15.2 per cent saying it had failed to resettle IDPs. The Government was also faulted for failing to fight insecurity, tribalism and unemployment.