Prime Minister Raila Odinga with Musalia Mudavadi and William Ruto after the Orange Democratic Party elections at the Bomas of Kenya in Nairobi in the past. on Thursday. Opinion poll results released by Strategic Research last Friday show Prime Minister Raila Odinga leading the pack with 42 per cent approval, followed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta at 21 per cent. PHOTO/STEPHEN MUDIARI
By EMEKA-MAYAKA GEKARA, gmayaka@ke.natiomedia.com
Posted Saturday, July 16 2011 at 20:25
Posted Saturday, July 16 2011 at 20:25
Article 138(4) of the new Constitution will separate wannabes from serious presidential contenders.
The Article says: A candidate shall be declared elected as President if the candidate receives more than half of all the votes cast in the election; and at least twenty-five per cent of the votes cast in each of more than half of the counties.
Realistically, it is highly unlikely that a single candidate can reach the Article 138 threshold,” said Safina leader Paul Muite.
Opinion poll results released by Strategic Research last Friday show Prime Minister Raila Odinga leading the pack with 42 per cent approval, followed by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta at 21 per cent.
Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is third with 9.5 per cent support followed by Eldoret North MP William Ruto with 8.3 per cent. Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua trails the pack with 7.8 per cent.
On paper, the poll suggests that if the election was held today, Mr Odinga would beat the three G7 Alliance rivals.
But can Mr Odinga hit the Article 138(4) threshold in a straight contest?
Given Kenya’s highly tribalised political environment, it would be a tough call. His victory will largely depend on the number of counties he can deliver outside his Nyanza stronghold of six counties and Nairobi, which is his base.
The poll would also be significantly determined by who he picks as the running mate. The post of Deputy President is the only carrot to dangle.
The PM must fill the vacuum left after Mr Ruto bolted with the Kalenjin counties which supported him in the last election. This leaves him with the Maasai and Turkana counties.
His support in North Eastern region of Mandera, Garissa and Wajir counties has also waned considerably.
Today, the Luhya nation of four counties remains the largest voting bloc behind Mr Odinga after the Luo. And there lies the other headache.
Most opinion polls show that the Odinga-Mudavadi ticket is the most formidable but the presidency would be said to be a “Western Kenya affair”. But can the PM cut Mr Mudavadi loose and still retain the Luhya vote? It is likely that one of the G7 kingpins, probably Mr Kenyatta, would invite Mr Mudavadi or Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa to seduce the Luhya vote.
Narc-K chairperson Martha Karua, Water minister Charity Ngilu and assistant minister Peter Kenneth have been suggested for running mates. Ms Karua would most certainly excite the women voters but she has made it clear that she will run for nothing other than the presidency.
Two, Ms Karua and Mr Kenneth are considered political lightweights by the Central Kenya political elite which supports Mr Kenyatta.
With Mrs Ngilu on the ticket, Mr Odinga would have endeared himself to womenfolk and the much-needed Eastern bloc which is drifting away. Further, it would be a counter-move should the G7 Alliance abandon or pick Mr Musyoka.
With Mrs Ngilu on the ticket, Mr Odinga would have endeared himself to womenfolk and the much-needed Eastern bloc which is drifting away. Further, it would be a counter-move should the G7 Alliance abandon or pick Mr Musyoka.
The strategy of the G7 alliance is that should Mr Odinga emerge top in the first run, then they will gang up against him in the second round. This strategy has its challenges.
One, there will be no critical seats to share because Mr Odinga’s opponent, say Mr Kenyatta, would not replace his running mate to accommodate more interests.
Two, there is no assurance that the supporters of the losing candidates in the Alliance will not shift support to Mr Odinga.
Moreover, the Friday opinion shows that a majority of Kenyans have little faith that the Alliance would last until 2012.
Then there is the matter of the International Criminal Court.
Then there is the matter of the International Criminal Court.
If the ICC confirms cases against Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, the ground will be prepared for a battle between Mr Odinga and probably Mr Musyoka. Can the VP stand Mr Odinga’s juggernaut? One thing is not in doubt. The 2012 election will be a do or die for the PM.
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