Rivals gang up to stop Raila

By Oscar Obonyo
Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s quest for president faces one of the toughest hurdles thanks to renewed efforts by high-level political rivals to frustrate his ambition.
While the latest developments involving his peace mission in Cote d’Ivoire, the shuttle diplomacy by Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka to lobby African countries to defer the ICC process, and the controversial nomination to plum judicial offices appear isolated, ODM insiders claim they are part of an orchestrated plot to frustrate their leader.
So critical is the strategy that, at the risk of being branded a diplomatic joke, Kenya displayed dirty factional politics across the continent, and at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, over the PM’s mediation in West Africa, and the ICC question.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga with ODM members after a National Executive Council meeting at Orange House recently. Photo: Mbugua Kibera/Standard

In the Ethiopian capital, a DVD was played to the audience that included heads of state, showing gory scenes that followed the announcement of disputed 2007 presidential election results.
The selectively edited video clip by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials entitled, Restorative or Retributive Justice: When fighting Iimpunity Becomes Endorsement of Impunity, shows the PM as the one who set Kenya up into flames.
(See separate story).
The battles at the international front were buttressed by President Kibaki’s nomination of four individuals to key judicial offices. While the PM’s allies have termed the move suspicious, the VP told Parliament the President needed to convince his contemporaries in Addis Ababa that "something was being done locally to strengthen the Judiciary".
Separately, PNU views the developments as political competition. It maintains it is in its interest to vanquish an opponent. The opponent, according to Secretary for Legal Affairs George Nyamweya, continues to "disrespect our party leader and has made it difficult for the President to execute his policies".
The timing of threats by two PNU legislators, Jamleck Kamau (Kigumo) and Jeremiah Kioni, to persuade the party to convene a National Delegates Conference for members to endorse pulling out of the coalition is part of the scheme.
Raila recently lost the support of former Industrialisation Minister Henry Kosgey, and Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei, who have since joined forces with William Ruto. Ruto and Kosgey are facing corruption charges in court.
Asked by The Standard On Sunday whether the Kamau-Kioni move was part of the PNU strategy to force an early election, party spokesman, Moses Kuria, said: "The guy is down and there can never be a better opportunity."
Already, ODM seems to be alive to the move. While addressing a rally in Nairobi this week, Immigration Minister Otieno Kajwang’ asked his audience to "warm up". This is in apparent preparation of presidential polls, which Kajwang’ said, might be held anytime soon.
KEY SCHEMERS
"You have seen them everywhere outside the country trying to undo the PM’s efforts and mission, and even heard them mention they want to pull out of Government. I think they want to push us into polls any minute," he said.
ODM insiders say an elaborate strategy is already in place and its key schemers are the President, Vice-President, Deputy Prime Minister, Uhuru Kenyatta, and Ruto.
Some Orange party legislators, say Raila is the sole unifying factor among his foes, and the alleged schemes are meant to stop him from becoming President.
"PNU is worried about a possible Raila presidency. They fear he could haul everyone, including the President, to The Hague," one MP said.
The Standard on Sunday has reliably established the subject of fresh elections was discussed during the ODM parliamentary group meeting on Thursday.
The feeling among members was that the Kibaki appointments had little to do with ICC, but everything to do with Kibaki succession.
Members also thought calls for early elections was a smart move meant to have some of the ICC suspects, particularly Uhuru, in Government either as President or Vice-President should ICC grant a one-year deferral. That, they said, would partially block ICC from dragging into the dock sitting president or those who would have left office.
Threats of impeachment on Speaker of National Assembly, Kenneth Marende, have also persuaded the ODM wing PNU is keen on installing a "friendly individual" as Speaker to help them execute their plot.
ODM MPs also vowed to oppose any possible schemes by the President to fill the electoral body with his cronies as he did in 2007.
Reacting to ODM’s position, Nyamweya accuses party leaders of malice: "ODM does not want to deal with the matter of the Ocampo Six and that is why they are indifferent to deferral. They simply want to fix the six because this is competition."
Separately, Cherengany MP Joshua Kuttuny attributes ODM’s woes to a leadership unwilling to dialogue.
PM himself is the problem "The truth be told, the PM himself is the problem. He has made it so hard to reunite with his foes. On the other hand PNU has opened up its doors for rival ODM MPs and even dissenters from within," he told The Standard on Sunday.
Kuttuny said the political plot against Raila is "only natural" because he has chosen to isolate himself. Besides, the MP says Raila is politically stronger and, therefore, a common enemy of those with presidential ambitions.
Amid the current storm, the PM asked the media to help tone down political temperatures. Speaking to editors at KICC on Wednesday morning, he appealed to journalists to share his strong feelings that the country must pause for a moment and take stock.
But the political scheming and intrigues could intensify ahead of the expected ruling by ICC on the Ocampo Six, and in the run-up to General Election, due next year.
Over the last two decades Raila, who has played an active role in elective politics, has attracted as many admirers as enemies. With favourable current opinion poll ratings, he has become an obvious target of attack among competitors.
But over and above that, he has personal long-standing grudges with the Kibaki-Kalonzo-Uhuru-Ruto axis. PNU operatives maintain he has soiled the President’s name and humiliated him several times during the tumultuous reign of the Tenth Parliament.
To Kalonzo, there is the unfinished 2007 business where the PM "elbowed" the VP out of the original Orange party, and went on to inherit ‘his’ Rift Valley core support.
For Uhuru and Ruto, it is payback time for the man who frustrated the pair in the 2002 General Election by leading a walk out of Kanu. Uhuru was then a Kanu presidential candidate.