PM RAILA ODINGA: He is perhaps the biggest winner from the naming of the six key suspects, now said to be "bound for The Hague". In one move, the ICC process has crippled the presidential ambitions of two key figures from the team which is set to oppose him in the 2012 presidential race. It is reasonable to assume that any political leaders who now have The Hague to worry about, are not likely to be very effective in helping organise the anti-Raila forces. Staying out of jail tends to be a fulltime occupation when faced with accusations of "crimes against humanity" before an international tribunal. And while the accused are thus engaged, their regional political rivals will be busy making inroads into their core support groups. In this context, Gideon Moi's recent 'takeover' of Kanu is particularly serendipitous - the long-anticipated return of the Moi dynasty to the centre of Rift Valley politics is now more plausible, with Ruto having so much on his plate. And in Central province, presidential hopefuls Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth now have a clear road along which to pursue their ambitions, with reputed frontrunner from that region, Uhuru Kenyatta, being otherwise engaged.
VP KALONZO MUSYOKA: Up to now, it has been argued that the proposed 'KKK' political alliance which brought together Kalonzo, Uhuru and Ruto, faced an intractable problem when it came to deciding which one of them would in due course run against Raila in the 2012 presidential race. But now, with the release of Ocampo's list of suspects, the decision seems to have been made in favour of Kalonzo. On the one hand, Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto will now - more than ever - be determined to keep Raila out of State House. And on the other hand, given the pace at which the ICC works, it is not likely that they will be free to engage in an intense and protracted grassroots political campaign anytime soon. The best they can do is to throw their weight behind their political ally, Kalonzo Musyoka, a man for whom the Ocampo list must come as an undisguised blessing, even though that is the last thing he would ever admit to.
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