RAO

By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, April 3 2010 at 15:40

Every Kenyan knows that Prime Minister Raila Odinga is the centre of gravity of the country’s politics. He is at the top of the news every day. When he sneezes, his political opponents catch a cold.

If Mr Odinga goes left, his opponents head right. If he says that Mt Kenya is in Central Province, his detractors find a way to argue that the famous landscape is in Nyanza.

Mr Odinga possesses such dominant political mystique that he should, by now, have become president.

But yet the son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, the doyen of Kenya’s opposition politics, remains an outsider looking in. Is it a family curse, or will Mr Odinga finally get to the mountain top in 2012?

No other senior political figure has laboured more tirelessly, or borne the brunt of state repression, more intensely than Mr Odinga.

The man has more than paid his dues in the quest for reform. Even so, the spoils of the state have time and again gone to lesser mortals who have played it safe.

In 1997 and 2007, Mr Odinga toiled valiantly in the vineyards of presidential elections only to come out empty.

But he believes that he was robbed in 2007. However, that is now water under the proverbial bridge. The question is whether Kenyans will recognise Mr Odinga’s character, sacrifice, and leadership acumen to hand him the keys to the State House in 2012.

My crystal ball tells me that Mr Odinga has a tough slog ahead. He is a prince — by virtue of his pedigree — but he is an outsider-insider.

He “should” belong to the cabal of the traditional ruling elite, but he doesn’t. His Achilles’ heel is his innate proclivity to reform the conservative Kenyan state and “spread the wealth’’.

The anchors of Kenya’s conservative ruling elite — the Kenyattas, the Mois, and the Kibakis, and their political and biological children — have sworn to keep him in the political wilderness.

The conservative heir apparents to the throne — Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Ministers William Ruto, Uhuru Kenyatta and George Saitoti — are determined to cut off Mr Odinga at the knees.

If you doubt me, just look at the kitchen sink approach of the PNU or PDM — take your pick! The conservative ruling cabal — which believes it “owns” the state — is throwing everything at Mr Odinga in the hope that something will stick.

It has even deployed political minnows and novices against him. That’s why Jimmy Kibaki, a prince not known for the alacrity of his political mind, feels compelled to launch attacks against Mr Odinga under the guise of Simama Kenya.

You can be sure that Mr Jimmy Kibaki will attempt to step into his father’s shoes in Othaya in 2012 to perpetuate the legacy of conservatism in Kenya.

The big question is whether Kenyans have seen through the charade of the ruling conservatives and are prepared to give an outsider a chance.

Mr Odinga is not a complete outsider. He is rather an insider-outsider. He is an insider by class and pedigree, but an outsider by political history and ideology.

He carries the “baggage” of political populism and the legacy of struggle for reform.

This is what makes him unpalatable to conservatives. The “filthy” rich believe that Mr Odinga will not safeguard their vested interests.

They are deathly scared of land reform, genuine investigations into human rights abuses and economic crimes. If I were Mr Odinga, I would be most concerned about the tribalisation of the 2012 elections.

Mr Odinga will have a nearly impossible task if the PDM folks manage to stick together under the KKK alliance. A solid tribal coalition of the Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin would be difficult to beat.

Mr Odinga would then only have the Luo and the Luhya to rely on, and it is not clear he could count on the solid backing of the Luhya.

That’s why he must change the basis for the 2012 elections from “tribe” to “policies”. Mr Odinga will likely lose the election if he runs as the head of a tribal coalition.

He must run as the nominee of a “Kenyan” political party that is concerned with the welfare of Kenyans.

It remains to be seen whether the big egos of Mr Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Mr Saitoti can agree who among them will be the flag bearer.

Mr Kenyatta poses obvious risks because Kenyans may be unwilling to vote for a Kikuyu after Mr Kibaki. Mr Saitoti, who doubles as a Kikuyu-Maasai, would be intriguing, but is a dour campaigner and personality.

Mr Ruto, the most junior among this group, is the riskiest because of allegations linking him to the post-election violence and his polarising character.

Mr Musyoka may be their best bet, but he lacks political gravitas to go toe to toe with Mr Odinga.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC