After months of shadow boxing, the referendum on the proposed constitution may provide the first electoral battle between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Agriculture minister William Ruto.
Mr Odinga supports the draft, while Mr Ruto has announced his opposition to the proposed constitution, arguing it should be amended before the referendum.
Rift Valley Province will be a key battleground in the contest.
Mr Odinga was in Mr Ruto’s political base in Eldoret on Saturday as he continued his tour of the North Rift with an aim to retain support in the region where he received substantial backing in the last General Election.
Fairly popular
Despite the fallout with Mr Ruto, a recent opinion poll showed that the PM is fairly popular in the region.
Mr Ruto led in popularity with 26 per cent, while the PM was backed by 18 per cent of respondents.
Mr Odinga faces a double-barrelled challenge in pushing the “Yes” campaign, especially in the Rift Valley. He will be up against Mr Ruto’s allies and former President Moi, who retains a network of supporters in the region and might offer financial backing for the “No” campaign.
Another issue the PM has to contend with is his announcement in February that he had suspended Mr Ruto. President Kibaki overturned the decision.
The PM is aiming to make political headway in Rift Valley by using figures like former Agriculture minister Kipruto Kirwa, who lost the Cherang’any seat to Joshua Kutuny of ODM.
He also banks on the support of ODM national chairman Henry Kosgey, an influential leader who has remained at his side.
“The PM is very clear on all issues. Wait until he explains his position to the people. Some MPs have been misleading the people with false reports to hit out at the PM, but he is a seasoned politician who tackles issues head on,” Mr Kosgey told Sunday Nation.
Dying horse
But Eldoret mayor William Rono, a Ruto ally, described Mr Odinga’s move to marshal the support of former MPs and aspiring politicians as “the last kicks of a dying horse”.
He said Mr Odinga backed the draft constitution despite knowing the issue of land adversely affects the Kalenjin.
“He has no other interests in Rift Valley besides the votes,” Mr Rono said.
He cited eviction of the settlers in the Mau water tower, the arrest of youth suspected of participating in the post-election violence and the suspension of Mr Ruto by the PM as the key issues that have cost Mr Odinga Kalenjin support.
Initially, Mr Ruto appeared to be planning a political alliance with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy PM Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of 2012, but the deal appears to have run into trouble due to voting patterns when the draft came up for debate in the House.
Three-tier system
One amendment sought to pave the way for the creation of a three-tier system with a federal government, regional governments and counties. The amendment was defeated because it failed to meet the 145-member threshold for effecting any changes to the draft.
Dr Lukoye Atwoli, a political analyst, said formation of alliances now would be premature as some leaders may be hauled to The Hague on suspicion of playing a role in the post-election violence.
“The political picture in Kenya is incomplete as ICC may soon take some of the leaders for trial. They will be forced to re-think their alliances by the end of next year,” Dr Atwoli said.
He said Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto will use the referendum to test political waters and form a political movement ahead of the next elections.
Tom Kigen, who lost the Keiyo South parliamentary seat in 2007, said the politicians on board Mr Odinga’s political train want to advance personal interests.
“Yes” campaign
But former Eldoret South MP David Koros is confident the PM’s move to bring on board people like Mr Kirwa will lead to victory for the “Yes” campaign.
“We are tired of leaders who believe in monopoly of leadership and witch hunting. And I do not think Ruto and his group will win in their “No” campaign,” Mr Koros said.
A close Ruto ally, Faruk Kibet, is of a different view.
“I am shocked the PM uses aspirants and losers to undermine sitting MPs. He must realise euphoria will no longer influence voting patterns and pulling crowds in rallies does not translate into votes,” said former councillor.
Nairobi-based politician Isaac Murmett said it was good for the PM to go directly to the people in order for voters to understand him better.
“It is good he goes directly to the electorate. And those pushing for the rejection of the draft constitution will be in for a shock,” he said.
ODM coordinator in the North Rift Isaac Maiyo said the visit will not necessarily result in electoral support for the PM.
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