Why Uhuru Kenyatta Is A Cornered Man
By Michael Farah on 2012-08-30 00:44:02 (3 comments)
Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta is a man who has risen through the political ladder swiftly after being nominated as Member of Parliament and subsequently appointed to the position of Minister for Local Government in 2001. He later contested the presidency on a Kanu party ticket in 2002 losing to President Kibaki.
After the 2002 elections, he became the leader of the official opposition later working in tandem with disjointed members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headed by Raila Odinga following complaints of being shortchanged in a pre-election Memorandum of Understanding between LDP and National Alliance of Kenya (NAK).
In the run-up to the 2007 elections, Uhuru Kenyatta joined hands with President Kibaki making history as the first opposition leader to forgo his presidential bid to support the sitting president, at least in the Kenyan context.
His rise has been attributed to the fact that a number of Kikuyu individuals view him as a tough politician who can be able to represent them and equally fight for the protection of their economic empire. The Kikuyu elite viewed him as the one who would protect their wealth, especially due to the fact that the source of Kenyatta family’s wealth has been questionable.
Though he has been enjoying massive support from the Kikuyu elite, there has been a gradual drift of this class towards Prime Minister Raila Odinga. This is principally because of the Kikuyu factor with this class feeling that it will be a tall order for another Kikuyu to succeed president Kibaki. This class is therefore looking for someone who has higher chances of winning so that their economic activities are accorded free hand in the incoming political leadership. There is also a burning feeling that because of Uhuru Kenyatta’s financial muscle and his position within the government, he is not easily influence through money. He has evidently been associating with the young politicians at the chagrin of the rich political and business bigwigs.
Through his tough approach on issues, economic network and his financial capacity, he has been able to secure a great support from the community for his political bid. With Kibaki retiring after his two terms, Central Kenya has been on the search for someone who will politically lead the community after President. The other personalities who have also fought for this position are Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth but who have not been able to make any substantial impact.
Uhuru’s biggest challenge is the issue of the charges at The International Criminal Court. The international community is definitely putting pressure on Kenya’s leadership to bar Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto from running for the top seat. This analysis examines Uhuru Kenyatta’s chances in case he is cleared to vie for the top seat.
With the support from Central Kenya the largest voting bloc, what are Uhuru Kenyatta’s chances of winning the 2013 presidential elections?
If free and fair elections are held within the G7 Alliance to front a single presidential candidate, it is highly likely that Uhuru Kenyatta will emerge the winner which would be a very big boost to his candidature. This is the reason a number of the G7 Alliance members have been non-committal on the idea of fielding a joint candidate for the presidency. If they agree to take that avenue, with the aim of stopping Raila Odinga, Uhuru will be left with just a few more hurdles.
Secondly, if the members of the G7 Alliance agree to run separately with the deal that they support whoever will be number one or number two in the first round, it is highly likely that Uhuru will beat all the contenders to either be number one or two. This will propel him to go for the run-off if there is no clear winner in the second round.
Thirdly, with the rifts already evident in the G7, the contenders might as well go to the polls without any pre-election pacts. This is highly likely to result into the aforementioned scenario where Uhuru Kenyatta is either number one or number two. In case Uhuru gets 50% +1 votes, he shall be the 4th president of Kenya.
What if there is a run-off pitting Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta?
In a situation where there is no pre-election pact, the members of the G7 Alliance, William Ruto, Eugene Wamalwa, Kalonzo Musyoka and the other possible contenders will be free to support either of the candidates. This will put Uhuru in a tricky situation particularly because of the Kikuyu factor. Kenyans are still struggling with the fact that having another Kikuyu succeed president Kibaki is a possibility and enshrined in the constitution as well; it is the votes to decide.
In a balance of numbers, there will be a split of votes in favor of Raila and Uhuru. With Raila securing Luo Nyanza and Uhuru Kikuyu Central, the other voting blocs will be out for grab. If Uhuru and his team do not handle the Kikuyu factor very carefully, he will give Raila an easy ride to state house.
Uhuru therefore has to work towards projecting himself more as a Kenyan whose leadership will benefit all corners of the country. His team of young and qualified professionals should ensure that the politics of chest thumping is thrown to the garbage and to promise Kenyans that he will take stern action against corrupt individuals who have looted public property, enhance transparency and accountability in the management of public affairs, ensure balance in resource allocation as spelt out in the constitution and embrace regional balance in the distribution of public appointments.
This cannot be later but now since we are having the elections in a few months time.
After the 2002 elections, he became the leader of the official opposition later working in tandem with disjointed members of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headed by Raila Odinga following complaints of being shortchanged in a pre-election Memorandum of Understanding between LDP and National Alliance of Kenya (NAK).
In the run-up to the 2007 elections, Uhuru Kenyatta joined hands with President Kibaki making history as the first opposition leader to forgo his presidential bid to support the sitting president, at least in the Kenyan context.
His rise has been attributed to the fact that a number of Kikuyu individuals view him as a tough politician who can be able to represent them and equally fight for the protection of their economic empire. The Kikuyu elite viewed him as the one who would protect their wealth, especially due to the fact that the source of Kenyatta family’s wealth has been questionable.
Though he has been enjoying massive support from the Kikuyu elite, there has been a gradual drift of this class towards Prime Minister Raila Odinga. This is principally because of the Kikuyu factor with this class feeling that it will be a tall order for another Kikuyu to succeed president Kibaki. This class is therefore looking for someone who has higher chances of winning so that their economic activities are accorded free hand in the incoming political leadership. There is also a burning feeling that because of Uhuru Kenyatta’s financial muscle and his position within the government, he is not easily influence through money. He has evidently been associating with the young politicians at the chagrin of the rich political and business bigwigs.
Through his tough approach on issues, economic network and his financial capacity, he has been able to secure a great support from the community for his political bid. With Kibaki retiring after his two terms, Central Kenya has been on the search for someone who will politically lead the community after President. The other personalities who have also fought for this position are Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth but who have not been able to make any substantial impact.
Uhuru’s biggest challenge is the issue of the charges at The International Criminal Court. The international community is definitely putting pressure on Kenya’s leadership to bar Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto from running for the top seat. This analysis examines Uhuru Kenyatta’s chances in case he is cleared to vie for the top seat.
With the support from Central Kenya the largest voting bloc, what are Uhuru Kenyatta’s chances of winning the 2013 presidential elections?
If free and fair elections are held within the G7 Alliance to front a single presidential candidate, it is highly likely that Uhuru Kenyatta will emerge the winner which would be a very big boost to his candidature. This is the reason a number of the G7 Alliance members have been non-committal on the idea of fielding a joint candidate for the presidency. If they agree to take that avenue, with the aim of stopping Raila Odinga, Uhuru will be left with just a few more hurdles.
Secondly, if the members of the G7 Alliance agree to run separately with the deal that they support whoever will be number one or number two in the first round, it is highly likely that Uhuru will beat all the contenders to either be number one or two. This will propel him to go for the run-off if there is no clear winner in the second round.
Thirdly, with the rifts already evident in the G7, the contenders might as well go to the polls without any pre-election pacts. This is highly likely to result into the aforementioned scenario where Uhuru Kenyatta is either number one or number two. In case Uhuru gets 50% +1 votes, he shall be the 4th president of Kenya.
What if there is a run-off pitting Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta?
In a situation where there is no pre-election pact, the members of the G7 Alliance, William Ruto, Eugene Wamalwa, Kalonzo Musyoka and the other possible contenders will be free to support either of the candidates. This will put Uhuru in a tricky situation particularly because of the Kikuyu factor. Kenyans are still struggling with the fact that having another Kikuyu succeed president Kibaki is a possibility and enshrined in the constitution as well; it is the votes to decide.
In a balance of numbers, there will be a split of votes in favor of Raila and Uhuru. With Raila securing Luo Nyanza and Uhuru Kikuyu Central, the other voting blocs will be out for grab. If Uhuru and his team do not handle the Kikuyu factor very carefully, he will give Raila an easy ride to state house.
Uhuru therefore has to work towards projecting himself more as a Kenyan whose leadership will benefit all corners of the country. His team of young and qualified professionals should ensure that the politics of chest thumping is thrown to the garbage and to promise Kenyans that he will take stern action against corrupt individuals who have looted public property, enhance transparency and accountability in the management of public affairs, ensure balance in resource allocation as spelt out in the constitution and embrace regional balance in the distribution of public appointments.
This cannot be later but now since we are having the elections in a few months time.
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