Successive opinion polls have consistently showed that Prime Minister Raila Odinga is enjoying a commanding and comfortable lead in the run up to the 2012 presidential elections. Raila's lead is not accidental. His struggle for the democratisation of this country is exceptional and his firm and principled stance on important national issues has resonated well with the Kenyan public, endearing him to a majority of the masses.
In addition, Raila is a charismatic leader, a pragmatic political strategist and an exceptional campaigner. With all these credentials and public support, one would expect that Raila's journey to statehouse to be easy and smooth.
Unfortunately, this is Kenya, where political competitors are not judged by the content of their character, but by their ethnic orientation and 'corrupt credentials'. Raila should therefore carefully and wisely overcome five obstacles before 2012.
Re-branding ODM: The popularity of ODM is pegged on the fact that it is a party of change, yet, since it entered the government, it appears to have no radically different policy agenda from its coalition partner, PNU. As a result, ODM is increasingly losing popularity as more and more of its supporters get disillusioned.
As a matter of urgency, ODM must re-brand and re-invigorate itself as a party of change, for it to consolidate its support and retain its popularity. It should be able to convince the people that its options are currently limited given the coalition arrangement it has to operate within, but it will deliver its promised fundamental change, once it ascends to power in 2012.
To achieve this, ODM needs to be reformed by restructuring its policy framework, as well as changing its secretariat leadership. With the new constitution now in place, the party must develop new policies that would effectively address poverty and unemployment, and proactively sell them to the public to recapture its support, particularly among the youth.
Similarly, ODM urgently needs a vibrant and dynamic leadership at the secretariat, which would reconnect it to the grassroots, as well as spearhead positive policy transformation. Furthermore, the party must internally democratise to accommodate a diversity of opinions and party dissidents.
The running mate dilemma: Perhaps the biggest challenge to the PM would be to select a suitable running mate that can deliver to him large support in 2012. Naturally, one would expect that the PM would settle on Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate, given that he is his deputy, and hails from the Luhya community, the second most important political base for him, after the Luo community.
Yet, choosing Mudavadi may be misconstrued as the 'westernisation' of his government, and consequently provide a basis for the formation of an 'Eastern alliance' led by the Gema and Kamba politicians, to counter the politically imagined and socially constructed 'Western alliance'.
But dropping Mudavadi for a more favourable running mate may not auger well with the Luhya
community, and as result, it may cost the PM the significant Luhya support, which is crucial to his quest for the presidency. Faced with this dilemma, the PM must carefully and wisely evaluate his options, and ultimately make the right choice.
Reaching out (or replacing) the Kalenjin community: If the 2012 presidential race polarises between the 'Western alliance' led by Raila and Mudavadi (Luo-Luhya alliance) verses the 'Eastern alliance' led by Kalonzo and Uhuru [Kamba-Gema alliance], it is the Kalenjin vote that might be the swing vote; the ultimate decider. If the Kalenjin back Raila as they did in 2007, he might emerge victorious. But if they tilt their support to Kalonzo, in the spirit of the KKK alliance, Raila will definitely have it rough. It's important therefore that Raila reaches out to the Kalenjin community before it's too late.
Given that in politics, there are no permanent enemies or friends, Raila should acknowledge Ruto's influence among the Kalenjin, swallow his pride and make peace with him. Though possible, it is hard for Raila to get the Kalenjin vote through an alternative tribal kingpin such as Sally Kosgey or Henry Kosgey. It will also be difficult to replace the Kalenjin vote with the Gema and Kamba vote, given the widespread anti-Raila and anti-Luo sentiments among these communities.
Containing 'Railaphobia': There are people who would do anything to stop Raila from ascending to the presidency. These groups of people range from those who merely dislike him or differ with him ideologically, to those who feel he betrayed them at one point or another, to corrupt individuals who fear prosecution under his regime. These groups are working hard to scuttle Raila's presidential ambitions. Raila should reach out or contain such individuals, as well as avoid creating unnecessary political enemies by re-building trust and confidence among his allies.
Taming 'Luophobia': A Kikuyu friend told me that though he likes Raila and would want to vote for him in 2012, he fears the behaviour of Raila's kinsmen if he ascends to power. According to him, Raila's kinsmen are the biggest obstacle to his presidential ambitions because they behave as if they own him, occasionally getting over¬excited and over-proud, even arrogant, about him. As a landlord in Kibera, my friend actually fears some of his tenants might even refuse to pay rent under a Raila regime.
Luophobia is a reality Raila should seek to address. He must appeal to his kinsmen to stop behaving as if they own him and stop heckling and throwing stones at his opponents. He must convince his kinsmen as well as his critics that he seeks not to be a Luo president, but a Kenyan president.
In trying to address Railaphobia and Luophobia, Raila might seek an alliance with the Kikuyu community in 2012. Or alternatively, he can sit back and pray that ICC prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo comes for his major political opponents. This will definitely destabilise the KKK alliance.
Bob Mukhwana is a political commentator and post-graduate student.
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Tuesday, November 30, 2010
Mudavadi is Okay just where he is
Weekly Citizen November 29 - December 5, 2010 (Page 4)
Mudavadi is Okay just where he is
In a scorning piece about the fortunes of Musalia Mudavadi, the Deputy Prime Minister and minister for Local Government, and one of the senior most politicians in Kenya, your writer, Asienwa Bigood went off the mark.
Bigood is mesmerized by raw power. As they say, those who "see" power from a distance, dream of being power itself and not just having it. That is why Bigood, who I hope lives in Kenya and has been witness to the monumental transformation of the country from a virtual dictatorship by Kanu, can afford to be the high priest of nostalgia for the dictatorial tendencies at the height of the Kanu regime in the 1980s. His wish list for the DPM is couched in the language of an agent provocateur, the kind who tells you to step on hot-red nails because there is no visible fire.
But I forgive Bigood because I cannot cure deep-rooted bigotry. But I cannot forgive her/ him for pretending to be a fortune-teller using the mystic to argue a course rather than using facts to make a case. And what is the course Bigood is pursuing? Destabilization of ODM hierarchy.
There is a plot in the works that in order to deal with the ODM political hurricane come 2012; ensure that key lieutenants of the party close to Raila are either besmirched through character assassination with allegations of corruption while at the same time urging them to rebel; or as the Americans say "take them out" politically.
The strategy worked in 'taking out' William Ruto. Now is the turn of Musalia to be hived off. Listen to Bigood; "It is therefore prudent for Musalia to "rattle" the PM..." And what is the basis for urging Musalia to turn into a snake and go for Raila's blood? The Raila-Uhuru candidature propaganda. Maybe Bigood is too good to know that the Raila-Uhuru candidature was a brief scarecrow thrown at the Luhyas, to get them disenchanted enough with ODM. Briefly, and thank God just briefly, the Luhya nation nearly fell for the trick. But the big kill of the Raila-Uhuru gauntlet was to get Uhuru's ratings up, and this they did if opinion polls since then are anything to go by.
I have digressed from my actual point only to tell Bigood unless s/he is an agent of destabilization; the politics of blackmailing the DPM to stage a fight with Raila otherwise he will have no support of the Luhya is not new. It was the same song in 2007 by local Luhya mercenaries now being revived at the national level to dismember the Luhya vote. That is why the Raila-Uhuru candidature is being, funneled and some neophytes from the north of Luhyaland funded ostensibly for the presidency.
I sometimes wonder why anyone who wants any leadership mantle has to start off by lying to the same people from whom respect and votes are expected. In Sabatia, another fifth column of novices following the same blackmail script has emerged; taunting that Musalia is too big for the Sabatia seat! Shamelessly, they are playing to the funeral gallery with senseless lies that Musalia has blessed them.
For those fanning the Raila-Uhuru myth, they ought to know that ODM presidential candidature is contested and Musalia will be there with the rest, even if Uhuru were to inconceivably decamp to ODM. For the sponsored political apprentices in Sabatia, let them carefully read Articles 136 and 137 on election and qualifications of the President under the Constitution. Specifically, I freely advise them to revise Article 137(3) before engaging in a comedy of errors concerning the Sabatia seat.
Back to Bigood, s/he has told many lies. The lie that "A number of Snr. Mudavadi's buddies seat (sic) on the Sabatia CDF committees and handle Musalia's Constituency diary when he is visiting" is utter rubbish which can only be told by a very weird person. The lie that Musalia "has not fought any big political war worth mentioning" must be from the fertile imagination of a Mongolian trying to learn about the 50-year-old Musalia's 21 years in politics. Then there is this foolish cliche that Musalia "must be his own man". Other than an insult by Bigood, what has Musalia been otherwise other than a man?
Lastly, may I solemnly swear that Bigood, Musa Bundamba Mudavadi, your latter-day hero in death, was long dead before the Sabatia Eye Hospital was started by Musalia in 1996. Unless the ghost of Musa is haunting you, you couldn't have told this big lie.
Bigood, juvenile obsession with "our own", that whatever it takes "one of our own" must stand for the presidency whatever the odds and so that your primordial instincts are quenched, may indeed be the made-to-size Achilles Heel that will turn Luhya presidential wannabes into village elders in Kenyan politics of the 21 't Century.
The instinct to try to run before walking, must be sidelined in favour of a strategy of long-haul investing in leadership. Musalia is the man.
By Kibisu-Kabatesi (Hon Musalia's Spokesperson)
Disclaimer: The views in this article are my own and do not reflect the opinion of Hon. Musalia Mudavadi.
Mudavadi is Okay just where he is
In a scorning piece about the fortunes of Musalia Mudavadi, the Deputy Prime Minister and minister for Local Government, and one of the senior most politicians in Kenya, your writer, Asienwa Bigood went off the mark.
Bigood is mesmerized by raw power. As they say, those who "see" power from a distance, dream of being power itself and not just having it. That is why Bigood, who I hope lives in Kenya and has been witness to the monumental transformation of the country from a virtual dictatorship by Kanu, can afford to be the high priest of nostalgia for the dictatorial tendencies at the height of the Kanu regime in the 1980s. His wish list for the DPM is couched in the language of an agent provocateur, the kind who tells you to step on hot-red nails because there is no visible fire.
But I forgive Bigood because I cannot cure deep-rooted bigotry. But I cannot forgive her/ him for pretending to be a fortune-teller using the mystic to argue a course rather than using facts to make a case. And what is the course Bigood is pursuing? Destabilization of ODM hierarchy.
There is a plot in the works that in order to deal with the ODM political hurricane come 2012; ensure that key lieutenants of the party close to Raila are either besmirched through character assassination with allegations of corruption while at the same time urging them to rebel; or as the Americans say "take them out" politically.
The strategy worked in 'taking out' William Ruto. Now is the turn of Musalia to be hived off. Listen to Bigood; "It is therefore prudent for Musalia to "rattle" the PM..." And what is the basis for urging Musalia to turn into a snake and go for Raila's blood? The Raila-Uhuru candidature propaganda. Maybe Bigood is too good to know that the Raila-Uhuru candidature was a brief scarecrow thrown at the Luhyas, to get them disenchanted enough with ODM. Briefly, and thank God just briefly, the Luhya nation nearly fell for the trick. But the big kill of the Raila-Uhuru gauntlet was to get Uhuru's ratings up, and this they did if opinion polls since then are anything to go by.
I have digressed from my actual point only to tell Bigood unless s/he is an agent of destabilization; the politics of blackmailing the DPM to stage a fight with Raila otherwise he will have no support of the Luhya is not new. It was the same song in 2007 by local Luhya mercenaries now being revived at the national level to dismember the Luhya vote. That is why the Raila-Uhuru candidature is being, funneled and some neophytes from the north of Luhyaland funded ostensibly for the presidency.
I sometimes wonder why anyone who wants any leadership mantle has to start off by lying to the same people from whom respect and votes are expected. In Sabatia, another fifth column of novices following the same blackmail script has emerged; taunting that Musalia is too big for the Sabatia seat! Shamelessly, they are playing to the funeral gallery with senseless lies that Musalia has blessed them.
For those fanning the Raila-Uhuru myth, they ought to know that ODM presidential candidature is contested and Musalia will be there with the rest, even if Uhuru were to inconceivably decamp to ODM. For the sponsored political apprentices in Sabatia, let them carefully read Articles 136 and 137 on election and qualifications of the President under the Constitution. Specifically, I freely advise them to revise Article 137(3) before engaging in a comedy of errors concerning the Sabatia seat.
Back to Bigood, s/he has told many lies. The lie that "A number of Snr. Mudavadi's buddies seat (sic) on the Sabatia CDF committees and handle Musalia's Constituency diary when he is visiting" is utter rubbish which can only be told by a very weird person. The lie that Musalia "has not fought any big political war worth mentioning" must be from the fertile imagination of a Mongolian trying to learn about the 50-year-old Musalia's 21 years in politics. Then there is this foolish cliche that Musalia "must be his own man". Other than an insult by Bigood, what has Musalia been otherwise other than a man?
Lastly, may I solemnly swear that Bigood, Musa Bundamba Mudavadi, your latter-day hero in death, was long dead before the Sabatia Eye Hospital was started by Musalia in 1996. Unless the ghost of Musa is haunting you, you couldn't have told this big lie.
Bigood, juvenile obsession with "our own", that whatever it takes "one of our own" must stand for the presidency whatever the odds and so that your primordial instincts are quenched, may indeed be the made-to-size Achilles Heel that will turn Luhya presidential wannabes into village elders in Kenyan politics of the 21 't Century.
The instinct to try to run before walking, must be sidelined in favour of a strategy of long-haul investing in leadership. Musalia is the man.
By Kibisu-Kabatesi (Hon Musalia's Spokesperson)
Disclaimer: The views in this article are my own and do not reflect the opinion of Hon. Musalia Mudavadi.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Boundaries row threat to constitution
By Standard Team
The failure to gazette the new 80 electoral areas and Parliament’s refusal to accept nominees in two key commissions has created confusion.
Following the action by Parliament, the political scene has become increasingly polarised along party and ethnic positions.
And despite claims by Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka that the country does not face a crisis, the tension created by the tussle over new electoral boundaries is reflecting badly on the Executive, Parliament and the Judiciary, who are now being seen as stumbling blocks to implementing the new laws.
On Sunday, Raila asked Kenyans to be patient and wait for leaders to strike a political solution regarding the boundaries dispute.
But the assurances by the PM and VP sounded hollow because a simple reading of the Constitutional provision on the legislature shows that the country’s 80 new constituencies must be created by December this year, and prior to the next General Election, which is due in just over a year.
The PM assured that the disagreements that has transformed into a major obstacle for implementation of the new laws would be resolved soon.
"We will ensure all who are not happy with the new boundaries are satisfied. I believe this will break the political impasse and allow the wheel of reforms and constitution implementation to roll smoothly," said the PM.
Raila blamed the courts for blocking reforms needed to speed up the implementation of the Constitution.
"If it were not for our courts, I believe Kenya could be very far in development," said Raila.
The VP has also stated that the country does not face a crisis.
Kalonzo said: "We know there is a dispute over the Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission and the embattled chairman Andrew Ligale. We expect a political truce among MPs to resolve the issue."
In the midst of the confusion, however, President Kibaki has been quiet though it is understood that he met the PM to discuss the issues.
But an admission that the country faces a crisis came from Mandera Central MP Mohamed Abdikadir, who has become distinguished for his sober approach to issues that enabled him to steer the Parliamentary Select Committee on Constitutional Review to guide the enactment of the new constitution.
Credibility crisisAbdikadir, who is now heading the Constitution Implementation Oversight Committee (CIOC), said key institutions including Parliament, Judiciary and the Executive are facing a credibility crisis after being cast in bad light following the recent events on the boundaries and commissions saga.
He said the crisis on implementation is more political and less legal or constitutional. The Mandera Central MP described implementation of the new laws as "very delicate" and said it was not going to be smooth because of vested interests.
"We need to look at the political issues in the eye. Once sorted the legal issues will be sorted out easily," he said. He said that key institutions expected to guide implementation "have not been handling shocks very well."
And as the crisis created by the new constituencies dispute continued to have a ripple effect on governance, questions that beg answers emerge.
First, will the next elections be valid if Government fails to validate the report by the Interim Independent Electoral Commission before the end of the year?
Secondly, what political solution could resolve the dispute when a court injunction is in place blocking the new list?
Thirdly, even if a political solution were found, who will gazette the list since the IIBRC has folded shop? And if another Government arm gives instructions for its gazettement, would that not be another ground for the disgruntled person to get a court injunction?
A suggestion by MPs supporting the list to move an amendment to the Constitution to extend the life of the IIBRC was greeted with skepticism, because the commission has folded up, and the question of extension of term is out of the question. The new laws also state that any amendment on issues to do with independent commissions must be subjected to a referendum.
RecommendationsThat the Government is faced with a crisis is evident from the fact that the PM now blames the courts for issuing an injunction, which has scuttled the boundaries review.
The Ligale team also faces criticism for not making its recommendations early enough. The IIBRC, after spending millions of shillings, made its report one week before its dissolution.
As a way out of the impasse, Constitutional lawyer Paul Muite has suggested that Parliament should fast track the formation of an Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission following the expiry of the mandate of the Ligale led IIBRC.
"Without an electoral and boundaries commission in place the country is certainly sitting in very dangerous moments," said Muite.
He, however, faulted the Ligale commission in the manner it distributed the new 80 constituencies.
Muite said Ligale should not have rushed a notification for gazettement of the new constituencies until the matter in dispute was resolved.
On Sunday, Ligale said he had handed over his full report to Parliament’s Justice and Legal Affairs Committee chaired Budalangi’ MP Ababu Namwamba.
Mr Otiende Amollo, a member of the defunct Committee of Experts, said that although the IIBRC did not complete its work, Parliament should adopt its report "as soon as tomorrow". Amollo said MPs should not have tied creation of the two commissions to the failed gazettement of IIBRC’s new constituencies.
East African Cooperation assistant minister, Mr Peter Munya said a new team should be put in place as a matter of urgency "to sort out the outstanding issues."
But Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, said the Ligale-team should be commended for its work.
"We are all happy, but there are signs showing that some leaders don’t want the new Constitution to be implemented," said Mudavadi.
Cabinet Minister James Orengo and Sirisia MP Moses Wetang’ula echoed Mudavadi’s sentiments.
"You cannot get everything you want. We must learn to get just what we need, not all," added the suspended Foreign Affairs Minister.
The failure to gazette the new 80 electoral areas and Parliament’s refusal to accept nominees in two key commissions has created confusion.
Following the action by Parliament, the political scene has become increasingly polarised along party and ethnic positions.
And despite claims by Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka that the country does not face a crisis, the tension created by the tussle over new electoral boundaries is reflecting badly on the Executive, Parliament and the Judiciary, who are now being seen as stumbling blocks to implementing the new laws.
On Sunday, Raila asked Kenyans to be patient and wait for leaders to strike a political solution regarding the boundaries dispute.
But the assurances by the PM and VP sounded hollow because a simple reading of the Constitutional provision on the legislature shows that the country’s 80 new constituencies must be created by December this year, and prior to the next General Election, which is due in just over a year.
The PM assured that the disagreements that has transformed into a major obstacle for implementation of the new laws would be resolved soon.
"We will ensure all who are not happy with the new boundaries are satisfied. I believe this will break the political impasse and allow the wheel of reforms and constitution implementation to roll smoothly," said the PM.
Raila blamed the courts for blocking reforms needed to speed up the implementation of the Constitution.
"If it were not for our courts, I believe Kenya could be very far in development," said Raila.
President Kibaki , PM Raila odinga |
The VP has also stated that the country does not face a crisis.
Kalonzo said: "We know there is a dispute over the Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission and the embattled chairman Andrew Ligale. We expect a political truce among MPs to resolve the issue."
In the midst of the confusion, however, President Kibaki has been quiet though it is understood that he met the PM to discuss the issues.
But an admission that the country faces a crisis came from Mandera Central MP Mohamed Abdikadir, who has become distinguished for his sober approach to issues that enabled him to steer the Parliamentary Select Committee on Constitutional Review to guide the enactment of the new constitution.
Credibility crisisAbdikadir, who is now heading the Constitution Implementation Oversight Committee (CIOC), said key institutions including Parliament, Judiciary and the Executive are facing a credibility crisis after being cast in bad light following the recent events on the boundaries and commissions saga.
He said the crisis on implementation is more political and less legal or constitutional. The Mandera Central MP described implementation of the new laws as "very delicate" and said it was not going to be smooth because of vested interests.
"We need to look at the political issues in the eye. Once sorted the legal issues will be sorted out easily," he said. He said that key institutions expected to guide implementation "have not been handling shocks very well."
And as the crisis created by the new constituencies dispute continued to have a ripple effect on governance, questions that beg answers emerge.
First, will the next elections be valid if Government fails to validate the report by the Interim Independent Electoral Commission before the end of the year?
Secondly, what political solution could resolve the dispute when a court injunction is in place blocking the new list?
Thirdly, even if a political solution were found, who will gazette the list since the IIBRC has folded shop? And if another Government arm gives instructions for its gazettement, would that not be another ground for the disgruntled person to get a court injunction?
A suggestion by MPs supporting the list to move an amendment to the Constitution to extend the life of the IIBRC was greeted with skepticism, because the commission has folded up, and the question of extension of term is out of the question. The new laws also state that any amendment on issues to do with independent commissions must be subjected to a referendum.
RecommendationsThat the Government is faced with a crisis is evident from the fact that the PM now blames the courts for issuing an injunction, which has scuttled the boundaries review.
The Ligale team also faces criticism for not making its recommendations early enough. The IIBRC, after spending millions of shillings, made its report one week before its dissolution.
As a way out of the impasse, Constitutional lawyer Paul Muite has suggested that Parliament should fast track the formation of an Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission following the expiry of the mandate of the Ligale led IIBRC.
"Without an electoral and boundaries commission in place the country is certainly sitting in very dangerous moments," said Muite.
He, however, faulted the Ligale commission in the manner it distributed the new 80 constituencies.
Muite said Ligale should not have rushed a notification for gazettement of the new constituencies until the matter in dispute was resolved.
On Sunday, Ligale said he had handed over his full report to Parliament’s Justice and Legal Affairs Committee chaired Budalangi’ MP Ababu Namwamba.
Mr Otiende Amollo, a member of the defunct Committee of Experts, said that although the IIBRC did not complete its work, Parliament should adopt its report "as soon as tomorrow". Amollo said MPs should not have tied creation of the two commissions to the failed gazettement of IIBRC’s new constituencies.
East African Cooperation assistant minister, Mr Peter Munya said a new team should be put in place as a matter of urgency "to sort out the outstanding issues."
But Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, said the Ligale-team should be commended for its work.
"We are all happy, but there are signs showing that some leaders don’t want the new Constitution to be implemented," said Mudavadi.
Cabinet Minister James Orengo and Sirisia MP Moses Wetang’ula echoed Mudavadi’s sentiments.
"You cannot get everything you want. We must learn to get just what we need, not all," added the suspended Foreign Affairs Minister.
MPs hint at Ruto-Uhuru pact
Eldoret North MP William Ruto with Kass-Standard Marathon committee chairman Moses Tanui at Eldoret Municipal ground, on Sunday. Photo: Peter Ochieng’/Standard
By Standard Team
A group of politicians is weighing between Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto to be its flag bearer in 2012.
Speaking in Cherangany, on Sunday, Water Assistant Minister Ferdinand Waititu and MPs John Mututho and Joshua Kuttuny said talks over the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance were in top gear.
And, in Eldoret, Ruto and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa said they were building a force that would sweep away old guards in 2012.
"I, my friend here (Eugene) and another one from that region (pointing towards Central Province) are working on something to take us there," said Ruto.
Mr Wamalwa took on Prime Minister Raila Odinga, saying he was unreliable.
"Do you know an animal that looks like a horse and a zebra at the same time. That is a donkey. This man you used to call arap Mibei behaves like this animal," said Wamalwa.
Kicked them like a donkeyRaila earned the tag arap Mibei (a man from the lake) when the Kalenjin threw their support behind him in the run up to the 2007 General Election.
Wamalwa claimed Raila worked to the downfall of his brother and former Vice-President the late Kijana Wamalwa, did the same for former President Moi, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and now President Kibaki.
"He kept kicking them all like the donkey does. Can you trust this man again? He can only fool some people some time but he cannot fool all the people all the time," Wamalwa said.
He added: "The Eldoret champion is William Rudisha Ruto and Kitale’s is Eugene Rudisha Wamalwa. Tutaungana turudishe wazee nyumbani (We will team up to send old politicians home)."
They spoke at the Kass-Standard Group Marathon in Eldoret town.
Ruto said: "There is a major race coming up in the next two years. We should unite as youthful generation of leaders to win the game because it is time for those working with Kibaki to go home and relax".
At the same time, the Mututho team said they would shield Ruto and Uhuru from political prosecutions schemed by certain politicians from other regions.
"The 2012 political strategy between the two politicians (Uhuru and Ruto) has been sealed and deliberations are on who should be the President," said Mututho, who is the Naivasha MP.
Speaking during a funds drive in Kapsara Secondary School, Cherangany constituency, the MPs urged the two communities to forget the past and embrace peace.
Mututho said Rift Valley and Central provinces had sizeable number of votes to easily make someone ascend to power if they voted en bloc. The leaders said Ruto and Uhuru were being witch-hunted by certain politicians to sabotage their ambitions.
Communities’ responsibility
Kenya National Commission on Human Rights adversely mentioned the two as having a hand in the 2007/2008 post-election violence. The two have since moved to court to have their names expunged from a list of alleged perpetrators of the chaos.
Mututho and his team now claim the duo’s indictment was a scheme to have them carry their communities’ responsibility.
Meanwhile, Uhuru has declared his 2012 presidential ambitions and a possible alliance for Central Kenya as Kamukunji MP Simon Mbugua urged Uhuru to reach out for Ruto and other politicians disgruntled with their party politics for a ‘national’ alliance.
Speaking at Kirere in Kigumo constituency, Uhuru lamented that leaders in Central had formed so many political parties that were perilous to the unity of residents.
Uhuru’s announcement came after ministers Chirau Mwakwere (Trade), John Michuki (Environment) and Kigumo MP Jamleck Kamau, who accompanied him, said Kenyans had faith in him and would support his presidential candidature.
—Reports by Titus Too, Osinde Obare, Job Weru and Boniface Gikandi
Ruto meets Uhuru as new 2012 alliance shapes up
By NATION TEAM newsdesk@ke.nationmedia.comPosted Sunday, November 28 2010 at 22:33
Eldoret North MP William Ruto has met with Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta in what is being seen as a move to form a new political alliance.
The meeting in Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi’s office came on the same day Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga told party rebels, led by Mr Ruto, to quit. Mr Ruto on Sunday hinted at leaving the ODM ahead of the 2012 General Election.
Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and their close allies met on Friday and discussed, among other things, “working together politically”.
Sources indicated that the leaders will hold similar meetings that may eventually see the birth of a new political alliance with the aim of capturing power in 2012.
On Sunday, Mr Odinga said Mr Ruto and his allies left ODM on their own volition. “We are not chasing people. They chased themselves. The Muslims usually say let’s marry in happiness and divorce in happiness.
“You cannot threaten to leave every now and then. Why should you be angry and issue threats? ODM is strong and is growing,” the Prime Minister told a rally at Kamukunji grounds in Kibera.
He dismissed the idea of an alliance between Kalenjins and Kikuyus saying “politics of tribalism ended a long time ago.”
“The days of divide-and-rule politics are long gone. This is a new Kenya where all the 42 tribes have equal rights. If you don’t agree with Raila Odinga’s ideology move to another party. Let us fight ideologically. ODM believes in social democracy and should be fought ideologically and not tribally.
“Don’t look at an individual but a party as a whole. It’s time for Kenya to change and end parochial politics. We should love each other as Kenyans and as one family,” the PM said.
It is still unclear how the Kenyatta-Ruto meetings would affect a plan by the Party of National Unity coalition to have the former, Internal Security Minister Prof George Saitoti and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka face off in a primary poll to get a single presidential candidate.
An ally of Mr Ruto, Mr Joshua Kutuny, said that political and national issues were on the agenda of the meeting. But he was vague on the details of the meeting, only saying, more talks would be held in the coming days.
“We are currently concentrating on the issues that are affecting the country right now including the row over the constituencies and the commissions on the implementation of the Constitution,” Mr Kutuny said.
See more meetings
Mr Kenyatta wanted to “understand” what the issue was with the constituencies. “You are going to see more meetings taking place with Issac (Ruto) chairing a caucus to find the way forward on resolving the controversy,” Mr Kutuny said.
Rift Valley MPs have embraced the proposed new constituencies while their colleagues in central Kenya have moved to court to block them. Mr Ruto is one of two ODM deputy leaders, the other being Local Government Minister Musalia Mudavadi.
Sources indicated that the proposed alliance by Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta has been receiving backing from within and outside the borders.
Reports indicate that Uganda President Yoweri Museveni encouraged Mr Ruto to pursue an alliance with Mr Kenyatta. Mr Ruto met Mr Museveni during a recent visit to Kampala. Over the weekend, Mr Ruto’s allies led by Mr Kutuny said they had found a new party.
Speaking separately, Mr Ruto said youthful leaders had come together to ensure that they clinch the presidency in 2012. “Raila is chasing us from the party after we supported him in the last elections. We have options and we are going nothing short of the presidency,” he said.
Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa said that the PM had been in Ford Kenya and messed up the party. He said Mr Odinga could not be trusted. But Mr Mudavadi cautioned Mr Wamalwa against his new alliance with former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga. Mr Wamalwa, he said, should choose his friends wisely.
Reports by Oliver Mathenge, Lucas Barasa, Eric Ngobilo and Bernard Kwalia
Sunday, November 28, 2010
MP hands drug dossier to Raila
BY LABAN WANAMBISI
1/1 He claims to have handed the list containing the names to Prime Minister Raila Odinga after meeting him on Sunday in a Nairobi hotel. Mr Imanyara said that he will be tabling the names in Parliament on Wednesday. “That is the information that I have given to the PM to follow up and make it public. I have given him specific names, ranks, addresses and telephone numbers which I will also declare them in Bunge but they are senior government officials,” he said. He further claimed to have facilitated a telephone conversation between former Senior Superintendent Mohammed Godana Jarsa and the PM during this afternoon meeting. The Imenti Central MP accused the Police of trying to cover up the matter citing Saturday’s attempt by the Police Spokesman to absolve high ranking police officers of any blame in the drug syndicate. The MP said SSP Godana had some time last year gone to him for assistance, accompanied by some journalists and police officers He said: “It came to me as a matter of shock that the Police Spokesman purported to exonerate all polices officers of any wrongdoing. One wonders what kind of investigations begin with exoneration of key suspects.” The legislator also accused the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) of abetting the trade in narcotics by clearing a consignment of 3,000 bags of Vietnamese rice to be imported to the country only for them to turn out to be hard drugs. “This is an international syndicate, it’s an international crime if the Kenyan government does not take action there are other avenues that we will take action,” Mr Imanyara vowed. Mr Imanyara demanded that the government offers protection to SSP Godana saying he was willing to disclose his whereabouts to the PM. “I want to assure the Police Commissioner that I don’t intend to take the word of Mr Kiraithe seriously until I hear action has been taken,” he said. The Imenti Central MP tabled documents in Parliament Wednesday detailing how a junior police officers, who had uncovered the activities of serious drugs cartels at the Coast, was fired from following orders from powerful forces. Another police officer, who was in charge of criminal investigations at the port of Mombasa, a Mr Abdullahi was shot dead by criminals suspected to have links to powerful drug cartels, the MP claimed. SSP Godana had stumbled upon 24 containers of hard drugs, probably cocaine disguised as rice imported from Vietnam as he conducted investigations into drug cartels at the Port of Mombasa. |
Read more: http://capitalfm.co.ke/news/Kenyanews/MP-hands-drug-dossier-to-Raila-10671.html#ixzz16bKnE4Fn
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Arrest gays, Kenyan PM orders
BY BERNARD MOMANYI
1/1 Mr Odinga on Sunday said that police should arrest anyone found engaging in such behaviours and take appropriate legal action against them. “We will not tolerate such behaviours in the country. The constitution is very clear on this issue and men or women found engaging in homosexuality will not be spared,” Mr Odinga said. “Any man found engaging in sexual activities with another man should be arrested. Even women found engaging in sexual activities will be arrested,” the premier warned. Speaking at a public rally at the Kamukunji grounds in his Nairobi’s Kibera constituency on Sunday afternoon, the Prime Minister cited the recent population census results which put the ratio of men to women equal and wondered why people should engage in homosexuality. “This [homosexual] kind of behaviours will not be tolerated in this country. Men or women found engaging in those acts deserve to be arrested and will be arrested,” he told a hilarious crowd. He said leaders who were propagating rumours of same sex marriages in Kenya during campaigns for the new Constitution had failed miserably because Kenyans did not buy their propaganda. “Those were lies from leaders who wanted to confuse Kenyans to reject the new law; the Constitution is very clear on that matter. It does not state anywhere that same sex marriage is legal in Kenya,” he added. The Bill of Rights under chapter four of the new Constitution states that: “Every adult has the right to marry a person of the opposite sex, based on the free consent of the parties.” A move by Uganda to introduce a Bill calling for long jail terms or death penalty in some cases of homosexuality received international condemnation, with US President Barack Obama describing it as “odious”. He said: “But surely we can agree that it is unconscionable to target gays and lesbians for who they are, whether it is here in the United States or... more extremely, in odious laws that are being proposed more recently in Uganda." But notwithstanding Obama’s remarks, homosexual acts are now illegal in Uganda and attracts jail terms of up to 14 years in prison. |
Read more: http://capitalfm.co.ke/news/Kenyanews/Arrest-gays%2C-Kenyan-PM-orders-10670.html#ixzz16bKVpqzi
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Dissolve Parliament, civil society says
BY LABAN WANAMBISI
1/1 National Civil Society Council Spokesman Benji Ndolo claimed that the culture of horse-trading and politicking was to blame for the delay in meeting the 90-day deadline to form the Commissions on Implementation of the Constitution and that on Revenue Allocation. "If this deadlock in Parliament is not resolved in 72 hours, to put the country back in gear and on solid ground towards implementation of the adopted Constitution, Parliament must be immediately dissolved and all members sent packing,” he said. "If they cannot agree on the way forward because of ODM/PNU struggles which have now become so stale. Let them step away and will find new leadership." Article 25(1) of the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution requires both the CIC and the CRA to be constituted within 90 days after the effective date. With August 27, 2010 as the effective date, the deadline was Friday, 26 November, meaning that Parliament’s special sitting on Thursday night was the last opportunity to honour the constitutional timescale. This failure by Parliament to beat a constitutional deadline triggered summary conclusions that the House had violated the Constitution and thrown the country into a monumental crisis. The civil society groups said that this will set a bad precedent which will encourage laxity in meeting set deadlines by other constitutional organs. "If we start missing deadlines and timelines what is to stop the Attorney General or the Chief Justice from claiming that we are hounding them out of office, yet you could not stick to the first timelines. This is beginning of a lot of confusion it goes against the spirit of implementing the Constitution," he said Parliament has two options as provided in Article 261 that would address any delays in enacting the raft of implementation legislation in Schedule Five. This article offers a two-pronged option. One, hands Parliament the mandate to extend, in “exceptional circumstances certified by the Speaker”, the specified legislative deadlines by no more than 12 months through a two-thirds majority resolution. Two, it permits members of the public to seek judicial intervention requiring Parliament to act, failure to which the Chief Justice may advice the President to dissolve Parliament. The country was on Thursday plunged into a constitutional crisis after Parliament rejected a list of nominees to two key commissions on the implementation of the new Constitution. The move by the MPs saw the Government miss Friday's deadline for gazetting the names, throwing the implementation of the new laws into a crisis. MPs said the list for the implementation committee lacked regional balance and said it should be returned to the principals. The formation of one of the first commissions under the new Constitution could be delayed further after a parliamentary committee rejected a nominee of the Party of National Unity. The Finance, Trade and Planning Committee rejected Amina Ahmed, who had been nominated to the Commission on Revenue Allocation, in a report tabled in Parliament hours before debate on the list began. The committee found that Mrs Ahmed “lacked the level of knowledge and expertise required for the position” and should therefore be replaced. The team asked PNU, which nominated her, to appoint somebody else to replace the banker, who is currently working as a consultant for an audit and management firm. Ms Ahmed holds a bachelor’s degree in economics and French and has 22 years’ working experience in banking. The committee approved the rest: Micah Cheserem as chairman and Prof Raphael Munavu, Prof J.H. Kimura, Prof Wafula Masai, Mr Meshack Onyango, Mrs Rose Bosibori Osoro and Ms Fatuma Abdulkadir as members. |
Read more: http://capitalfm.co.ke/news/Kenyanews/Dissolve-Parliament%2C-civil-society-says-10669.html#ixzz16bJjJS2Y
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Kalonzo warns Parliament may be dissolved
BY VPPS
1/1 The Vice President who is also the leader of Government business said Parliament is in an awkward position after they rejected a list of nominees to two crucial Constitution Commissions. The Vice President said if there would be no truce in the next one week then the life of the current Parliament would be cut short. He said President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga had agreed on the nominees of the two commissions and it’s the Parliament’s duty to pass the names. “If Parliament cannot pass the nominees of the two commissions next week Kenyans, might go to court and it will be the end of the current Parliament,” noted the Mwingi North MP. Mr Musyoka was speaking in Voi town when he presided over a funds drive in aid of the on-going Taita-Taveta Diocese development projects. He was accompanied by area MP Dan Mwazo and area Diocese Bishop Reverend Dr Samson Mwaluda, Coast PC Ernest Munyi among other leaders. “We know there is a dispute over the Interim Independent Boundary Review Commission and the embattled chairman Andrew Ligale and his team have a tremendous job to create additional constituencies. There will be a political truce among MPs to resolve the issue next week,” Mr Kalonzo assured Kenyans. At the same time the Vice President disclosed that the African Development Bank has pledged to spend about Sh8 billion to tarmac the dilapidated Voi-Taveta road next year. This comes after area residents and Matatu Owners Association demonstrated and blocked the Nairobi-Mombasa highway to protest at the poor state of the Voi-Mwatate-Wundanyi and Mwatate-Taveta roads two weeks ago. |
Read more: http://capitalfm.co.ke/news/Kenyanews/Kalonzo-warns-Parliament-may-be-dissolved-10667.html#ixzz16bIzNklF
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MWAI
President Mwai Kibaki with Livestock Development Minister Dr. Mohamed Kuti and Dujis MP Aden Duale after he was made a Borana Elder at Gardens ground, Merti, Isiolo where he addressed a public Rally.
MWITI
Mr Erastus Mwiti is in the news courtesy of the City Council of Nairobi. The cereals trader at Nairobi's Nyamakima was arrested on Wednesday over alleged flimsy reasons. His colleagues took to the streets in protest, but it took the intervention of Makadara MP Gidion Sonko Mbuvi for the police to produce Mwiti in one piece. Then it was time to send salaams and, of course, denounce kanjo. [PHOTOS: COLLINS KWEYU/STANDARD]
Pointblank
For the owner of this overloaded vehicle spotted at Murende on the Busia-Kisumu road recently, traffic rules are definitely not in his or her good books. Photo: Benjamin Sakwa/Standard
Ruto hints at new alliance
By Allan Kisia and Robert Wanyonyi
Eldoret North MP William Ruto has said he was ready to support a presidential candidate from Western Province if the region rallies behind one of its own. At the same time, former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga has endorsed Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa for the presidency.
"Time has come for generational change. It is time for the have-nots to make their bid at leadership," said Njenga.
Ruto and Njenga spoke in Bumula constituency during the burial of father to Assistant Lands Minister Wakoli Bifwoli, Protus Wakoli.
Ruto said he has no problem supporting a presidential candidate from western as long as the region is united behind that person.
The suspended Higher Education Minister told western Kenya leaders to stop guesswork when it comes to seeking leadership. He said Western and Rift Valley provinces should agree on one person to field for the top seat.
"You cannot make it on your own. Let’s all come together and we will achieve what we want," he said.
Njenga said a meeting will be held in Nairobi next month, where more on his alliance with Wamalwa and other key leaders will be unveiled.
Wamalwa sought the approval of Western Province voters to allow him seek alliances with other leaders outside the region, saying he was ready to push the youth agenda with Njenga and other like-minded leaders.
Other leadersIn attendance were Wamalwa, Cabinet Ministers Soita Shitanda and James Orengo, assistant minister Alfred Khang’ati and MPs Moses Wetangula, Simiyu Eseli, David Were, Cyrus Jirongo, John Mututho, Joshua Kutuny and Ferdinand Waititu, Former Cabinet Minister Mukhisa Kituyi was also among those who attended.
Ruto noted that Rift Valley has in the past voted overwhelmingly for candidates from other regions.
"We have voted for Uhuru Kenyatta and recently for ODM and we are now being chased away," Ruto said amid laughter. Kutuny said rebel ODM MPs should not be chased away as they have already left.
"When your son gets a wife, he moves out slowly without being pushed. We have already met our wives," he said.
Ruto claimed there were leaders who want him to end up at The Hague so that they can have an easy time chasing their political ambitions.
"Do you want to tell me all that violence Kenyans witnessed after 2007 election was planned by Ruto? I am innocent and that is why I went to The Hague," he said.
In an apparent reference to Wamalwa’s political networking, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi told voters to choose their friends carefully.
"All those from western who have indicated that they will vie for the presidency should be careful when they choose friends. You might hold on to a branch while ascending that ladder, not knowing that it is a snake," he said.
Eldoret North MP William Ruto has said he was ready to support a presidential candidate from Western Province if the region rallies behind one of its own. At the same time, former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga has endorsed Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa for the presidency.
"Time has come for generational change. It is time for the have-nots to make their bid at leadership," said Njenga.
Ruto and Njenga spoke in Bumula constituency during the burial of father to Assistant Lands Minister Wakoli Bifwoli, Protus Wakoli.
Ruto said he has no problem supporting a presidential candidate from western as long as the region is united behind that person.
The suspended Higher Education Minister told western Kenya leaders to stop guesswork when it comes to seeking leadership. He said Western and Rift Valley provinces should agree on one person to field for the top seat.
"You cannot make it on your own. Let’s all come together and we will achieve what we want," he said.
Njenga said a meeting will be held in Nairobi next month, where more on his alliance with Wamalwa and other key leaders will be unveiled.
Wamalwa sought the approval of Western Province voters to allow him seek alliances with other leaders outside the region, saying he was ready to push the youth agenda with Njenga and other like-minded leaders.
Other leadersIn attendance were Wamalwa, Cabinet Ministers Soita Shitanda and James Orengo, assistant minister Alfred Khang’ati and MPs Moses Wetangula, Simiyu Eseli, David Were, Cyrus Jirongo, John Mututho, Joshua Kutuny and Ferdinand Waititu, Former Cabinet Minister Mukhisa Kituyi was also among those who attended.
Ruto noted that Rift Valley has in the past voted overwhelmingly for candidates from other regions.
"We have voted for Uhuru Kenyatta and recently for ODM and we are now being chased away," Ruto said amid laughter. Kutuny said rebel ODM MPs should not be chased away as they have already left.
"When your son gets a wife, he moves out slowly without being pushed. We have already met our wives," he said.
Ruto claimed there were leaders who want him to end up at The Hague so that they can have an easy time chasing their political ambitions.
"Do you want to tell me all that violence Kenyans witnessed after 2007 election was planned by Ruto? I am innocent and that is why I went to The Hague," he said.
In an apparent reference to Wamalwa’s political networking, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi told voters to choose their friends carefully.
"All those from western who have indicated that they will vie for the presidency should be careful when they choose friends. You might hold on to a branch while ascending that ladder, not knowing that it is a snake," he said.
Plot to force presidential run-off in 2012 elections
By Oscar Obonyo
Eldama Ravine MP Moses Lesonett may have let out a secret when he spoke of a political convergence ahead of the 2012 General Election.
Alliances are building up as the historic elections under the new Constitution draw near.
While addressing a fundsdrive in Rongai constituency, last weekend, Mr Lesonett said: "Wengine wapitie njia hii na wengine njia ile nyingine, halafu tutakutana huko mbele katika barabara kubwa (Some should use this path and the others a separate path, so that we meet on a wider road ahead)."
Stage primaries Although he relayed it rather casually and many may have missed its implication, it remains a potent political statement. His sentiments point to a strategy of forcing a presidential runoff, which for some time has been top on the priority of politicians allied to the Party of National Unity (PNU).
Lesonett’s sentiments also come in the wake of a political union brewing around Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti.
According to PNU insiders, the three have agreed to stage primaries to pick one of them to face off with Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the presumed flag bearer of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Although Uhuru has dismissed such a plot, his allies tell a different story. During the Rongai meeting, central Kenya MPs claimed they were speaking for Uhuru, who was the designated chief guest.
Heir apparent And suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto equally stressed: "Hawa sio watalii. (They are not tourists)," in reference to MPs Jamlek Kamau (Kigumo), Jeremiah Kioni (Ndaragwa) and Ferdinand Waititu (Embakasi).
That Kalonzo, Uhuru, Saitoti and Ruto have embarked on a similar process is best captured by the flurry of activities around them. The VP and Uhuru, in particular, have been hosting a series of delegations of grassroots leaders, including community elders, councillors, and chiefs.
On Saturday, for instance, members of the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru Association (Gema) gathered in Nakuru, to, among other considerations, endorse Uhuru as President Kibaki’s heir apparent from central Kenya.
"A proper prognosis of Kenyan politics indicates there is every likelihood of a presidential run-off, whatever the initial alliances or formations. So the talk of union at that stage is not entirely off the mark," observes Dr Joseph Magut, a political science lecturer at Kenyatta University.
He says the current pact among Uhuru, Kalonzo and Saitoti is a mere preliminary deal aimed at helping PNU put its house in order. Even then, Magut points out that such a union is bound to be problematic.
"It would make a house of political giants and in the event they have to make room for other crucial players like Ruto, it is not easy to say who would cede ground," warns Magut.
Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University (USIU-Kenya) says: "Whatever the Kalonzo-Uhuru-Saitoti axis is doing, it is just part of the wider scheme as they eventually have to team up with Eugene (Wamalwa) and (William) Ruto. And to me, the Saboti MP is increasingly becoming a more serious and valuable player in the PNU strategy."
He says there is absolutely nothing new on offer from the Kalonzo-Uhuru-Saitoti team. Noting they share a voting bloc in the eastern part of the country, Munene explains only Eugene and Ruto will help the trio to make gains in western Kenya.
That also explains why western Kenya, and in particular regions occupied by the populous Luhya and Kalenjin communities remain within PNU’s political radar.
Munene says the man to watch is Eugene, "because Ruto is a troubled man who will soon be tied down with a series of domestic cases".
The die is not castEugene, accordingly comes into picture to help retain the presumably PNU friendly zones in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties, while Ruto, who has differed with the ODM party leader, can claw away party support in the Rift Valley.
Part of the strategy is prop up as many presidential candidates and running mates from western Kenya. This ploy will achieve two main goals — split the populous Luhya vote among several players, thereby denying ODM rivals outright majority in the region and thereby forcing a possible runoff.
To date, there are several presidential hopefuls or probable running mates from the community, including Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, former Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetang’ula, Assistant Minister Wakoli Bifwoli, Kaddu Chairman and Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli, Nambale MP and former minister Chris Okemo and Eugene.
Mr Bifwoli has claimed to "read through" the apparent scheme in the rising number of presidential hopefuls from the region and suggested a nomination to identify the most politically potent kinsman for the top job. The suggestion remains just that since not many agree.
However, Magut says: "The die is not cast yet and the ongoing talks are still at embryonic level."
He says new formations, including re-union of current political foes, could take place.
Without ruling out the possibility of a Raila-Ruto re-union, Magut says the PM would have to make major political sacrifices to accommodate the Eldoret North MP back into his corner.
"If Ruto has to come into the loop, certain personalities, particularly Mudavadi, may have to be prevailed upon to give room. Much as he is an amiable individual, politics is about numbers and Mudavadi cannot claim to have Western Province under his wings in the same way Ruto has a section of the Rift Valley," argues Magut.
In the meantime, Raila remains the crucial factor in all the current political calculations.
"The PM remains the point of focus in all these machinations. Having staged two presidential campaigns, with the last nearly successful, one cannot ignore this experience," says Munene.
He says the entire PNU strategy and related political alliances largely revolve around neautralising or outwitting Raila.
Eldama Ravine MP Moses Lesonett may have let out a secret when he spoke of a political convergence ahead of the 2012 General Election.
Alliances are building up as the historic elections under the new Constitution draw near.
While addressing a fundsdrive in Rongai constituency, last weekend, Mr Lesonett said: "Wengine wapitie njia hii na wengine njia ile nyingine, halafu tutakutana huko mbele katika barabara kubwa (Some should use this path and the others a separate path, so that we meet on a wider road ahead)."
Stage primaries Although he relayed it rather casually and many may have missed its implication, it remains a potent political statement. His sentiments point to a strategy of forcing a presidential runoff, which for some time has been top on the priority of politicians allied to the Party of National Unity (PNU).
Lesonett’s sentiments also come in the wake of a political union brewing around Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti.
According to PNU insiders, the three have agreed to stage primaries to pick one of them to face off with Prime Minister Raila Odinga, the presumed flag bearer of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Although Uhuru has dismissed such a plot, his allies tell a different story. During the Rongai meeting, central Kenya MPs claimed they were speaking for Uhuru, who was the designated chief guest.
Heir apparent And suspended Higher Education Minister William Ruto equally stressed: "Hawa sio watalii. (They are not tourists)," in reference to MPs Jamlek Kamau (Kigumo), Jeremiah Kioni (Ndaragwa) and Ferdinand Waititu (Embakasi).
That Kalonzo, Uhuru, Saitoti and Ruto have embarked on a similar process is best captured by the flurry of activities around them. The VP and Uhuru, in particular, have been hosting a series of delegations of grassroots leaders, including community elders, councillors, and chiefs.
On Saturday, for instance, members of the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru Association (Gema) gathered in Nakuru, to, among other considerations, endorse Uhuru as President Kibaki’s heir apparent from central Kenya.
"A proper prognosis of Kenyan politics indicates there is every likelihood of a presidential run-off, whatever the initial alliances or formations. So the talk of union at that stage is not entirely off the mark," observes Dr Joseph Magut, a political science lecturer at Kenyatta University.
He says the current pact among Uhuru, Kalonzo and Saitoti is a mere preliminary deal aimed at helping PNU put its house in order. Even then, Magut points out that such a union is bound to be problematic.
"It would make a house of political giants and in the event they have to make room for other crucial players like Ruto, it is not easy to say who would cede ground," warns Magut.
Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University (USIU-Kenya) says: "Whatever the Kalonzo-Uhuru-Saitoti axis is doing, it is just part of the wider scheme as they eventually have to team up with Eugene (Wamalwa) and (William) Ruto. And to me, the Saboti MP is increasingly becoming a more serious and valuable player in the PNU strategy."
He says there is absolutely nothing new on offer from the Kalonzo-Uhuru-Saitoti team. Noting they share a voting bloc in the eastern part of the country, Munene explains only Eugene and Ruto will help the trio to make gains in western Kenya.
That also explains why western Kenya, and in particular regions occupied by the populous Luhya and Kalenjin communities remain within PNU’s political radar.
Munene says the man to watch is Eugene, "because Ruto is a troubled man who will soon be tied down with a series of domestic cases".
The die is not castEugene, accordingly comes into picture to help retain the presumably PNU friendly zones in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties, while Ruto, who has differed with the ODM party leader, can claw away party support in the Rift Valley.
Part of the strategy is prop up as many presidential candidates and running mates from western Kenya. This ploy will achieve two main goals — split the populous Luhya vote among several players, thereby denying ODM rivals outright majority in the region and thereby forcing a possible runoff.
To date, there are several presidential hopefuls or probable running mates from the community, including Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, former Foreign Affairs Minister Moses Wetang’ula, Assistant Minister Wakoli Bifwoli, Kaddu Chairman and Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, Cotu Secretary General Francis Atwoli, Nambale MP and former minister Chris Okemo and Eugene.
Mr Bifwoli has claimed to "read through" the apparent scheme in the rising number of presidential hopefuls from the region and suggested a nomination to identify the most politically potent kinsman for the top job. The suggestion remains just that since not many agree.
However, Magut says: "The die is not cast yet and the ongoing talks are still at embryonic level."
He says new formations, including re-union of current political foes, could take place.
Without ruling out the possibility of a Raila-Ruto re-union, Magut says the PM would have to make major political sacrifices to accommodate the Eldoret North MP back into his corner.
"If Ruto has to come into the loop, certain personalities, particularly Mudavadi, may have to be prevailed upon to give room. Much as he is an amiable individual, politics is about numbers and Mudavadi cannot claim to have Western Province under his wings in the same way Ruto has a section of the Rift Valley," argues Magut.
In the meantime, Raila remains the crucial factor in all the current political calculations.
"The PM remains the point of focus in all these machinations. Having staged two presidential campaigns, with the last nearly successful, one cannot ignore this experience," says Munene.
He says the entire PNU strategy and related political alliances largely revolve around neautralising or outwitting Raila.
Abdikadir could do an Obama in Kenya
By MAKAU MUTUAPosted Saturday, November 27 2010 at 16:45
They say history is made by those who dare to dream. But, as William Shakespeare wrote in the Twelfth Night, “some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them”.
Only one of those truisms applies to Mandera Central MP Abdikadir Hussein Mohamed. He was not born with a silver spoon in his mouth.
Nor will he be served greatness on a silver platter. But my crystal ball tells me that the unlikely hero of the new Constitution is on the cusp of greatness.
There’s only one question – will Abdikadir seek the keys to the State House? If he does, I would advise opponents to watch out for a likely political tsunami.
Abdikadir reminds me of a particular “skinny kid” with a funny name from Chicago. That “kid” was Senator Barack Hussein Obama. Perhaps it’s an accident that Abdikadir shares the same middle name with Mr Obama.
Perhaps it’s not. But let’s set the record straight. Most people thought that Senator Obama had a snowball’s chance in hell of being elected American president.
However, he had the “audacity of hope”. Abdikadir may look like the “longest shot” for the State House today. But the country yearns for a new generation of leaders.
That’s why I think Abdikadir could “pull an Obama” and shock people in 2012. Don’t ask me where I get these ideas. Only those who are intellectually challenged sit in the same spot.
Year in and year out, Kenyans whine and moan about poor leadership. But they elect the same people every time. It’s time to think not only out of the box, but against it.
I remember when it was “treason” to imagine the death of the president. Imagine that! Do you remember how long it took us to get a new Constitution? The idea was simply unthinkable in 1980.
But hope springs eternal. You’ve got to imagine something before you can do it. You’ve got to play to win. Let’s not be prisoners of our own thoughts.
Why Abdikadir, you might ask? First, leaders are made, not born. Abdikadir has demonstrated that he’s special. He burst on the national political scene as the chair of the PSC, the body that forged the political consensus for the new Constitution.
He worked hand in glove with chairman Nzamba Kitonga and the Committee of Experts to deliver a document for the ages. The two men expertly steered the process through political rapids and turbulent winds that would have shipwrecked ordinary mortals.
When history is written, Abdikadir and Kitonga will be lauded for their wisdom. Cool under fire, they refused the bait of the charlatans. Abdikadir kept his eyes on the prize.
Remote village
Consider Abdikadir’s background, and you will know why most Kenyans would see themselves in him. Born in a remote village in the country’s northern frontier, he had no hope of one day leading Kenya.
But, because of his smarts, he was admitted to the vaunted Alliance High School and then University of Nairobi. He received an advanced degree in law from Harvard Law School, where he walked the same halls that Mr Obama had graced.
Not bad for a “kid” from one of the remotest places on earth. In 2007, he ran for Parliament on a Safina ticket and felled veteran legislator Billow Kerrow.
Abdikadir will chair the powerful parliamentary committee to oversee the implementation of the constitution. He is at the head of a class of youthful professionals from northern Kenya – or of Somali descent – that have brought a breath of fresh air to our national discourse.
Fastidious to a fault, these young men and women are writing a new history for our country. Apart from Abdikadir, two others are standouts.
The “elder” of the group is fellow Sunday Nation columnist Ahmednasir Abdullahi, also the publisher of the Nairobi Law Monthly. Mr Abdullahi speaks “truth to power” and his exploits in the annals of the struggle for reform are legion.
The other is Issak Hassan, the chairman of the Interim Independent Electoral Commission. Mr Hassan has shown the country how to run democratic elections.
My point is that we should expand our horizons and look for national leadership beyond the “usual” places. I know some will ask whether a Kenyan of Somali descent is electable given the ethnic dynamics – and prejudices – of our country. I do not deny this is an issue in the real world.
But my answer is simple – get over it. Any qualified Kenyan is entitled to seek the presidency irrespective of their religion, race, colour, tribe, ethnicity, disability, creed, gender, sexual orientation and region of origin.
The two-thirds who approved the new Constitution emphatically say so. It would do Kenya a lot of good to elect a president who is not from any of the “Big Five” communities.
Boundaries: PNU team holds meeting boycotted by ODM
By NJERI RUGENE nrugene@ke.nationmedia.comPosted Saturday, November 27 2010 at 22:30
A high-level meeting called at Harambee House to end the crisis over the creation of new constituencies was cancelled at the last minute on Friday.
It is understood that Prime Minister Raila Odinga called off the meeting, which the President was also to attend, citing events in Parliament on Thursday night when MPs stopped debate on nominees to sit in two key Constitution implementation commissions.
Government property
On Saturday, the Sunday Nation learnt that Mr Andrew Ligale, the former Interim Independent Boundaries Review Commission chairman, had received instructions from government officials that the commissioners should hand over government property such as vehicles to the ministry of Justice and Constitutional Affairs as outlined in the new Constitution by Saturday morning. Their offices were to be closed by midnight.
Sources in government said Mr Odinga proposed cancellation of the meeting and suggested it be postponed to Monday. The meeting was intended to discuss an updated list of new constituencies.
Notably though, ministers from the ODM side – members of the Cabinet Committee on Coalition Affairs – who were expected at the meeting did not show up at the President’s Office. Instead, the ODM leadership opted for a National Governing Council meeting at the Bomas of Kenya.
But their PNU counterparts held their own meeting chaired by VP Kalonzo Musyoka “to discuss the way forward” in the constituency boundaries row.
Those in attendance at the Friday meeting included ministers Uhuru Kenyatta, George Saitoti, Mutula Kilonzo, John Michuki, Kiraitu Murungi and Beth Mugo.
It is understood that the PNU group resolved that new boundaries be drawn up by a new team. “It was agreed that the Ligale group had done its work and it was now upon the President and the Prime Minister to start the process of constituting a new team. Our hope is that the new process is speeded up,” said a leader at the meeting.
Sources intimated yesterday that the feeling among the PNU side of the coalition is that the proposed new constituencies appeared to favour ODM strongholds and, if embraced, would give the Raila-led party a majority in Parliament.
“With such numbers in the National Assembly, and a likely two-thirds majority, ODM could do anything including changing the Constitution. A new team is necessary to ensure fair and just distribution of constituencies,” he added.
There was a general consensus that the new constituency boundaries were not a crisis and there was enough time – before August 2012 – to work on them.
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Artur brother claims Kibaki knew about 'The Standard' raid
One of the two infamous Armenian Artur brothers who commandeered The Standard Group raid in 2006 has for the first time directly implicated President Kibaki.
But in a quick rejoinder, State House denied the claims.
"There are desperate attempts by certain persons to seek relevance and association with State House. These attempts will not succeed," read a statement from PPS.
Artur Margaryan claimed the President and other top Government officials knew about the shocking attack.
Speaking to The Standard on Saturday from Qatar, Margaryan claimed he and his brother Artur Sargasyan carried out the raid soon after a State House meeting on March 2, 2006.
He further claimed he is still holding five computers belonging to the Standard Group in his house in Sri Lanka and was ready to return them.
Asked whether President Kibaki knew of the operation, he answered: "Of course, of course."
He said the raid was decided in a State House meeting, which had been convened following an article carried by The Standard on a secret meeting between President Kibaki and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, who was then in opposition.
He added: "The President was very upset about the story and said they (The Standard) have to be punished. He insisted it was all lies and repeated that The Standard had to be punished."
Margaryan said the security and intelligence chiefs present at the meeting claimed the Standard Group was about to publish another story that would further damage the President’s reputation.
"That evening Mr Joseph Kamau (former CID boss) called me and told me they had decided to raid The Standard and KTN and take their computers and that they were requesting me to execute the plan," he said.
He claimed current director of the National Security Intelligence Service Michael Gichangi, Kamau of CID and then Internal Security Minister John Michuki were present at the State House meeting.
He also said although former Police Commissioner Hussein Ali was aware of the plan, he did not play an active role in its execution.
"He was kept away because he had his business on the side and no one trusted him," he said without elaborating.
To carry out his mandate, he says, he was given two security IDs-one identifying him as a deputy commissioner of police and the other as the chief of the Quick Response Unit, which is mainly composed of officers from the now disbanded Kanga squad.Initially, he says, the Government had approached him and his brother to form a special police squad. "After assessing the quality of the police force, I advised them it is not possible to form a special squad, only a unit," he claims.
Margaryan says he is ready to spill the beans on the whole affair in whatever law court or inquiry on the raid. "I have CCTV and audio recordings of conversations with the President and other Government officials," he said.
Armed with assault rifles and clad in black balaclavas, their brief was simple: Raid the Standard Group, find the article and close KTN and The Standard newspapers. After the raid, he went on, police were supposed to guard the premises the whole night and day while the license for newspaper and TV station were to be revoked.
But after the national hue and cry the raid raised and the failure to secure support of the then Information and Communications Minister Mutahi Kagwe, he says, "the Government got scared and everything went bad for them."
He says he took the confiscated computers to his rented house in Runda where he checked and found "a very bad" article, which he, however, declined to disclose its contents to us. He claims he then took the computer to KICC’s office of Government Spokesman Alfred Mutua who "congratulated me for the good work."