BY OLIVER MATHENGE
PRESIDENT Uhuru Kenyatta is still comfortably ahead of Cord leader Raila Odinga and would retain the Presidency if elections were held today, a new national survey by Ipsos suggests.
The 2017 general election is still two years off, however, and researchers warned against drawing premature conclusions based on the survey.
The survey shows 48 percent of respondents say they would vote for Uhuru if there was a presidential election today, compared with his closest rival Raila, who has 23 percent support.
Ipsos was commissioned by the Star to conduct the survey, asking several exclusive questions.
The poll involved face-to-face interviews with 2,002 respondents between July 30 and August 9. The results have a margin of error of 3.2 percent.
The survey was taken before Uhuru's trip to Uganda and the furore over a reported deal for cheap sugar imports from Uganda.
With this level of support indicated by the survey, it is not clear whether Uhuru could win a simple majority in the first round or whether there would have to be a run-off, when the margin of error is taken into consideration.
However, when those who are undecided or who say they will not vote are excluded, the adjusted survey shows Uhuru would win in the first round with 52 percent against 25 percent for Raila.
Uhuru's popularity rose from 55 percent in November 2014 to 56 percent in April but dropped to 52 percent in the latest poll.
He does not appear to have received a ratings 'bounce' from the successful visit of US President Obama to Kenya in late July.
For Raila, in the adjusted figures, support stood at 29 percent in November, rose to 33 percent in April and dropped to 25 per cent in August.
Uhuru has therefore extended his lead over Raila to 27 percent, possibly because of Raila's apparent marginalisation during the Obama visit and reported 'scolding' by the US President.
No other Kenya politician comes close to Uhuru or Raila in the preferences for President.
Deputy President William Ruto has three percent support, while Kalonzo Musyoka, Moses Wetang'ula, Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Abduda Dida, and Mike Mbuvi Sonko all have just one percent support
The poll also shows more Cord supporters are willing to vote for Uhuru than Jubilee supporters are to vote for Raila. Fourteen percent of Cord supporters might vote for Uhuru in the next election, compared to 3 percent of Jubilee supporters who say they would support Raila.
The poll suggests 76 percent of Jubilee supporters are behind Uhuru but Raila only enjoys 63 percent support from those who identify with Cord.
Ipsos says this could reflect respondents who identify with Cord but who do not want Raila to run in 2017. Another factor might be that Uhuru is definitely standing in 2017, while Raila has not announced, though he acts like a candidate.
"Still, with the next election more than two years away there is no basis for making any serious predictive use of these figures, however interesting (and entertaining) it may be to track such views over time," an Ipsos researcher commented.
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