This is the next senator of Makueni... uta-do?-Kumekucha

I received some very angry emails from some of you when I predicted the outcome of the high court case on Kethi Kilonzo's eligibility to run in Makueni. That prediction like many I make here was NOT guesswork but was based on privileged info and some very expert legal opinion on the evidence before the court.

Now more people are going to be pretty angry with this post that predicts the outcome of that by-election, which will happen barely a week from today.

The move to fish out Mutula Jnr from their magic hat was an excellent "trick" by CORD "magicians" and the first time that the coalition has taken JUBILEE by complete surprise. Still it may NOT be enough based on the information that I have this morning.

For starters the threat to contest Mutula Jnr's eligibility to run by appealing the high court decision is just a side show designed to keep CORD under pressure and if possible to divide their attention as the real work goes on behind the scenes in Makueni.  As is the attack on Kalonzo Musyoka by the JUBILEE candidate Prof Philip Kaloki in a press conference yesterday. The JUBILEE campaign has been very carefully crafted not to attack Mutula Jnr directly but to instead focus on the CORD high command. Hopefully this will shift voter attention away from sympathy votes in favour of the late Mutula's son.  

Most people do not understand the role of a spoiler in an election. Others do not believe that such careful arithmetic is possible in something that is as unpredictable as elections usually are. But the truth is that it works and the tactic has been used effectively all over the world including in the US presidential elections. Indeed it works even better in Kenyan by-elections which usually have very low voter turnouts. Then you have to take into consideration the fact that Uhuruto are pretty smart and CORD at the moment is just playing catch up and are sadly not catching up fast enough. No true patriot will pop the champagne at this news because a strong, alert, opposition is critical to a vibrant democracy. More so to the sometimes dangerous JUBILEE government.

All indications are that John Harun Mwau is going to play the role of spoiler in the Makueni by-election. His main role is to reduce the number of votes that would otherwise have gone to the young Mutula. This will be done using cash. If you can't buy a voter to vote for you the next thing is to make sure they DON'T vote. You just buy their national ID card for the duration of the election and they can get it back after it's all over. One thousand bob is a lot of cash in Makueni county. It can buy food for hungry children for days on end. Two thousand bob is better and five thousand an absolute fortune.

And because Mwau and Kaloki are a team, all the latter has to do is ensure massive turnout from his strongholds and he will win the seat.

Sometimes a spoiler plays their cards so well that they end up winning, which will still be okay for JUBILEE (read my raw notes to discover why losing his seat to CORD is NOT an option for JUBILEE). 

Plan B is that if the numbers still don't add up, a little adjustment (like the one done in the March 4th presidential elections) will be executed. A handful of "added" votes in each polling station so small in number (but they quickly add up to a significant figure) that nobody will notice, should do it.

The bottom line is that the next senator of Makueni will NOT be from CORD.