Will Raila break the jinx of his democratic struggle this time?

By Oscar Obonyo

KENYA: Will it be third time lucky for Prime Minister Raila Amolo Odinga this time?

His co-principal President Kibaki pulled through after two failed attempts, and Raila’s supporters are hoping this trend would be replicated on Monday.

Having led in opinion polls over the last five years, he is certainly the man to beat in this election.

Known among supporters as ‘Agwambo’, which means the enigmatic one, Raila is indeed an unpredictable political operator. This is the one attribute that has helped him weather political storm over the last two decades.

In a recent exclusive interview with this writer, for instance, Raila’s elder brother, Finance assistant minister Oburu Oginga, explained how Agwambo cheated his way into political activism in the early 1970s.

The two brothers had just returned from Germany, where they had separately graduated with Masters Degrees – Oburu in Economics and Raila in Mechanical Engineering, only to find their father out of office as VP and in detention. While the Government secret agents kept an eye on Oburu, who as the firstborn appeared more politically dangerous, they ignored Raila. How wrong they were!

The “harmless” Raila even went on to get employment at the University of Nairobi as a lecturer, as his “dangerous” brother was denied employment. It only dawned on the Government operatives that Agwambo was the tougher and more politically aware one when he started agitating for political space.         

Brand name

Loved and loathed in equal measure, Raila is not just an individual political player. Having been detained for nine years because of his quest for democratic space, he is a brand name and a symbolic banner of the reform struggle.  

Ironically, Raila is now struggling to defend his record against competition and a people, whose priorities may have since changed. Not everyone wants to celebrate our historic gains. Rivals insist there is no need of looking at the rear view mirror, while Raila supporters maintain the past informs the future.

Although a son to Kenya’s first Vice- President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Raila has fought his political battles singly to the top.

Contrary to popular opinion, he never enjoyed political patronage of his father and even disregarded Jaramogi’s advice against vying for Lang’ata parliamentary seat in 1992. The old man was uncomfortable with the idea of father and son scrambling for seats in the Ford-Kenya party. 

While in the party, Raila rose from a junior position of deputy director of elections to director of operations before attempting to wrestle the party from the then chairman, the late VP Michael Kijana Wamalwa.

Raila eventually quit the party and sought re-election on his new outfit of National Development Party, owing to the leadership wrangles in Ford-Kenya.

Ever since, it has been a consistent personal struggle as Raila has climbed the ladder to the current position of Prime Minister in a shared Government following the 2007 botched presidential election.

Strong attributes

Those who know Raila attribute his success to his never-say-die attitude, habit of reaching out to foes, and his friendly and forgiving nature. Few, for example, would have expected him to work with Vice- President Kalonzo Musyoka, with whom they were engaged in protocol wars for the last five years.

Born on January 7, 1945, Raila has served as MP for Langata for two decades and as minister in the dockets of Energy, Roads, Public Works and Housing.

He first vied for presidency in 1997, finishing third behind Moi and Kibaki. Raila is married to Ida, and they have four children – Fidel, Rosemary, Raila Jnr, and Winnie.