Raila must work harder to salvage his political career

This is sad, mad and bad about a fighter for the rule of law, rights, freedoms and democracy. But, tragic as it may seem, Mr Raila Odinga could actually go down in history as the hero who reigned but never ruled.

Why?

One, if Mr Uhuru Kenyatta’s declared March 4 victory stands, then Mr Odinga would have to wait for five years for another chance for a stab at the presidency.

As the just-concluded General Election has shown, younger politicians and an even younger electorate now dominate the political arena.

Therefore, if 52-year-old Uhuru Kenyatta successfully serves his first term and seeks another, it will be a daunting task for a 72-year-old Odinga to oust him.

Having chosen a younger man for president, it is highly unlikely Kenyans would choose a septuagenarian five years hence unless Mr Kenyatta’s term was a disaster.

Therefore, two, Mr Odinga must invest his every penny to put together the most formidable legal team and arm them with watertight evidence to ensure the success of his challenge of Mr Kenyatta’s election in the Supreme Court.

If that happens Kenyans would have another presidential election. That possibility exists, which is why Mr Odinga must have his day in court. Politically, victory in court will give him a new lease of life.

But, he will need to pull all the stops out to mount a successful campaign to State House.

The race will be tougher than the one whose result he is disputing.

Why? Because, unlike the General Election, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga will have elected governors, senators, MPs and women reps to campaign for them.

These will be the ground troops that will step out to protect the Jubilee Alliance and Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) turfs.

Suffice to say that Jubilee has more MPs and women reps-elect than Mr Odinga’s Cord. Jubilee also captured most of the country’s most populous regions, which also have the highest voter concentrations.

Three, the race would still be a two-way affair between Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta. But from the results of March 4, their six opponents did not garner enough votes to propel Mr Odinga above Mr Kenyatta.

Indeed, the possibility that those who voted for the sextet could choose Mr Kenyatta over Mr Odinga also exists.

Four, the numbers game will change because of voter fatigue and the sheer fear factor.

These may see some people choose to go about their own business rather than go back to long queues and another long, tense, exhausting and frustrating wait for results.

The fear factor saw many Kenyans take holidays across borders before and after March 4.

If there is a poor turn-out, Cord will start off on the back foot; it registered fewer voters than did Jubilee.

Secondly, each side will seek to put its strongholds under lock and key and then campaign in the other’s to try and convince voters to switch sides. Cord will be under pressure to successfully raid the vote-rich Jubilee strongholds.

In this, Cord will be up against the lure and allure of power, already associated with Jubilee. These will help change loyalties easier and faster to the Jubilee column than to Cord’s.

It will be argued that Mr Kenyatta will ensure a stable government because, unlike Mr Odinga, he will have control of the National Assembly and choice of Cabinet.

Cord was stunned when some Kamba politicians dissociated themselves from the case challenging Mr Kenyatta’s election.

Reports of disharmony in Cord and smaller parties cosying up to Mr Kenyatta will increase. Mr Odinga will come across as facing isolation and up to his ears fighting trouble in Cord.

Lastly, note that Mr Odinga has since 2009 lost the propaganda war to Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta.

It is why to this day there are many who wrongly believe he manufactured the cases against Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto and, worse, carted the pair off to The Hague-based ICC.

That is why throughout the lead-up to the General Election, Jubilee framed Mr Odinga as unlikely to accept defeat.

He did not disappoint.

Jubilee supporters immediately accused him of harbouring a misguided sense of entitlement even when international observers had adjudged the General Election free and fair.

Wait a minute.

Isn’t Mr Odinga a hero of Kenya’s freedom, rights and democracy struggles?

Is he not a veritable people’s champion? He is.

But now he must fight a lot harder for the support of those he courageously fought for to avoid becoming the best president Kenya never had.

Kwendo Opanga is a media consultant opanga@diplomateastafrica.com