Mudavadi shift to Jubilee draws supporters’ ire

By Juma Kwayera

KENYA: A decision to co-opt Amani coalition into the Jubilee government is meeting hostility, with opinion divided on what value the Musalia Mudavadi-led alliance will add to The National Alliance party and the United Republican Party.

The resistance to Mudavadi is rooted in his dismal showing in the just-concluded presidential poll and deep-seated suspicions that the former Sabatia MP took part in an exercise he did not believe in. URP, which entered a Memorandum of Understanding to share power with TNA on a 50-50 per cent basis, has already expressed reservations, despite the fact that its combined strength with TNA of 134 seats does not give it the necessary numbers to legislate in Parliament.

In a veiled warning to Mudavadi, Jubilee has stated it will draft election flops in Government, a position if upheld puts not only Mudavadi, but also the likes of Water Minister Charity Ngilu, former Mvita MP Najib Balala, and Foreign Affairs Minister Sam Ongeri in a precarious position politically.

Although sources privy to the talks between Jubilee and Amani would devolve into what role Mudavadi will play in the next government, there are indications he might be considered for the position of Cabinet Secretary for Finance or will be nominated to Parliament to become House Majority Leader – the same position he turned down during ill-fated attempt to form a pre-election alliance with the same people.

Bomet Governor-elect Isaac Ruto confirmed to The Standard On Sunday that talks between Jubilee and Amani were ongoing and that nothing conclusive had been reached.

“Everybody is welcome. All Kenyans add value to the Government although working together does not mean somebody must be given a Government position. There is nothing wrong with Mudavadi being House Majority Leader because he is an experienced and level-headed politician,” says Ruto, who represented Chepalungu constituency in the Tenth Parliament.

Jubilee’s terms

The import of Isaac Ruto’s argument is that Mudavadi is on the verge of being nominated to Parliament by his United Democratic Forum (UDF) party. What is not in doubt, he adds, Amani will come on board on Jubilee’s terms and risks being booted if it makes unnecessary demands.

“The options for Amani are limited as Mudavadi comes on board weakened by the poor run on presidential election, where he came a distant third,” Ruto says. Since last Monday, Amani has held a series of meetings that mandated Mudavadi to talk to Jubilee. The 21 parliamentary seats Amani won give Mudavadi a lifeline to play some role in the next Government, even if peripheral. Eugene Wamalwa of New Ford-Kenya and Baringo County Senator-elect Gideon Moi are other Amani leaders accompanying Mudavadi to talk with Jubilee for accommodation in the next government. While President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta is reportedly amenable to teaming up with Mudavadi and Moi, his deputy William Ruto is opposed.

A Mudavadi confidant Charles Welangai told The Standard On Sunday that the genesis of Ruto’s aversion is the presence of Gideon Moi, a rival who denied his party a clean sweep of seats in the Rift Valley.

“Ruto is adamant leaders from Western are not welcome to the Jubilee Government. The general consensus in Amani is that there is accommodation in Jubilee more than CORD. Cyrus Jirongo, Moses Wetang’ula and Ababu Namwamba who always feel Mudavadi would overshadow them have poisoned the relationship between Amani and CORD.

In Jubilee, TNA is friendlier and has invited Amani to come on board to bolster its numerical strength in Parliament and give the Government a national outlook,” he explains.

Isaac Ruto denies the claims, saying Jubilee is open to like-minded leaders. The Jubilee Coalition is predominantly Kikuyu and Kalenjin in its ethnic composition, which leaves the rest of the 40 or so tribes feeling alienated.

Striking a deal

The jostling between Deputy President-elect William Ruto and Mudavadi even before their respective coalitions strike a deal is rekindling hostility between them carried over from their days in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), where they were Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s deputy party leaders. The changed circumstances and status, however, make the rematch a slippery affair for Mudavadi.

Already, Ruto is resisting Mudavadi’s coming on board, which is made less amenable to the former Eldoret North MP as he brings along Baringo Senator-elect Gideon Moi.

Post-election coalition between Jubilee and Amani kicked off immediately Mudavadi conceded defeat long before vote tallying was concluded. But when it became public that he was warming up to Jubilee, it triggered repugnance in Mudavadi’s political base in Western Kenya, where he is accused of pursuing selfish interests. The head of Mudavadi campaign secretariat Boaz Mbaya says the Deputy Prime minister failed to marshal enough support, especially in Western Kenya, because ‘we made strategic mistakes.’

It is these ‘strategic mistakes’ supporters want the party to consider in preparation for another stab at the presidency in future. The expected backlash notwithstanding Mbaya backs the negotiations.

The warming up to Jubilee, though, is feeding perceptions that he is a stooge or ‘project’ for Jubilee and even closest supporters have questioned the wisdom of joining a team that contributed to Amani’s lacklustre run in elections.

 Two months to the polls, Uhuru and Ruto duped Mudavadi into an alliance they disowned as soon they signed an agreement that would have seen him become the coalition’s presidential candidate. In the deal Ruto was to be his running mate, while Uhuru had reportedly agreed to be the House Majority Leader.

The flip-flopping in countdown to the March 4 polls triggered misgivings that distanced him from supporters, especially in Western, which is deemed to be his stronghold. The general feeling among his campaign team is that he is hurtling towards political disfavour as the latest developments have infuriated even his diehard supporters. Some of his allies insist that working with Jubilee is a more viable option than joining CORD in the opposition ranks.

Vihiga County Senator-elect George Khaniri says Amani’s decision to team up with Jubilee was a collective decision made on Monday after considering proposals from the CORD and Jubilee alliances for partnerships.