Big political auction begins as leaders ‘trade off’ their numbers

By Oscar Obonyo

KENYA: In what amounts to political auction, party leaders have embarked on “trading off” their support bases, in terms of the number of National Assembly and Senate seats they separately won in the General Election.

And unlike the pre-poll pacts where supporters had a say by voting in or out the various unions, the voter has absolutely no say in the current post-election pacts. It is the sole decision of individual leaders and party operatives on whom to work with.

With four senatorial and 22 parliamentary seats, Amani Coalition presidential candidateMusalia Mudavadi, for instance, has attracted the interest of Jubilee Coalition. Amani brings together three main parties, including the Deputy Prime Minister’s United Democratic Forum (UDF), Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa’s New Ford-Kenya, and the Baringo Senator-elect Gideon Moi’s Kanu.     

The decision to engage the President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta’s party has enraged scores of Mudavadi’s supporters from his western Kenya backyard. The two leaders disengaged acrimoniously last December after a short-lived union within Jubilee.

The move by Uhuru to elbow Mudavadi from the union left the latter’s supporters seething with rage. And they demonstrated this by voting for Uhuru’s key challenger, Prime Minister Raila Odinga in large numbers, upon realising their preferred candidate would not make an impact in the presidential race.

But in a move that may confirm campaign propaganda by rival Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) that Mudavadi was Uhuru’s political project, the UDF leader has made an about-turn by heading towards the President-elect.

One of his aides, who declined to be named, emotionally reacts: “Mudavadi offered himself to his people but the voters of western Kenya denied him their votes. The DPM must now make a personal decision on his political future and having rejected him, members of his community have absolutely no right to dictate to him on where to go or whom to team up with.”

Having denied him the numbers and owing to his poor showing in the presidential race, the Mudavadi official observes that the DPM’s political bargaining power has significantly been reduced. He argues that Mudavadi is therefore bargaining on account of his personal attributes and not “anybody’s numbers”. But the leader of Federal Party of Kenya, Cyrus Jirongo, who led the onslaught against Mudavadi in western disputes this argument: “It is not and can never be true Mudavadi is negotiating on his own account. He is simply using the numbers the people gave him, in terms of Senate and parliamentary seats to do his bidding.”    

Jirongo, who unsuccessfully vied for the Kakamega Senate seat on FPK party, an affiliate of CORD, is not particularly surprised at the current developments. He claims that Mudavadi and Eugene were part of Uhuru’s national campaign cast.

“And I warned our people that even if they denied Mudavadi the presidential vote, the two gentlemen would still runaway and auction the Senate and Parliamentary seats to Uhuru in a post-poll deal. This has come to pass,” he says.  Under the initial arrangement with Uhuru together with Deputy President-elect William Ruto, Mudavadi was to serve as Leader of Majority Party if he failed to clinch the team’s presidential ticket. The relevant law, however, demands that such a position be held by an MP. Having missed out, our sources indicate the former Sabatia MP may be angling for a Cabinet secretary position.    

But the Mudavadi ally dismisses talk of Uhuru-Mudavadi pact and the Cabinet slot as premature. He maintains that no serious discussions of this nature are underway or have been concluded.  With the CORD is engrossed in their petition case against the election of Uhuru, activity at the political market has been confined to the Jubilee Coalition. With one leg already in the presidency, Uhuru has been having a field day.

Mudavadi is not the only politician gravitating towards the President-elect, as sources within Jubilee point to a mad rush of key political figures towards Uhuru’s corner. Midweek, Uhuru hosted Mudavadi and three other presidential contenders, Paul Muite, James ole Kiyiapi and Mohammed Dida, in what our source describes as the beginning of “co-option into Jubilee team”. 

“Jubilee is not taking any chances on anything. In the event the CORD petition does not go our way, we would have expanded our team to face off with Raila and (running mate Vice-President Kalonzo) Musyoka,” the source confided to The Standard On Sunday. 

In the meantime, though, Jubilee is a congested house and coalition strategists are working overdrive on who to accommodate and on what terms. Already this is the debate with regard to the Mudavadi-led Amani team vis-a-vis Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi’s Alliance Party of Kenya.

Those opposed to Amani’s inclusion point to the Kanu wing, which they fear may undermine Ruto in his Rift Valley backyard. The political stature of Mudavadi is also a concern to some, who would rather the coalition opts for Kiraitu’s APK. Politicians allied to APK are viewed by Uhuru’s operatives as “natural members” of Jubilee, who might not make power-sharing demands as opposed to the Amani “outsiders”.

But the outcome of the Supreme Court could trigger new alignments on the political auction market.