Wednesday, February 20, 2013

What three pollsters say about Uhuru, Raila contest


By Alex Ndegwa
Nairobi, Kenya: Three opinion polls have predicted a dead-heat in the race for State House between CORD’s presidential candidate Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee Alliance.
Released on Monday, two weeks to the March 4 election of the country’s Fourth President, the surveys by the pollsters, Ipsos Synovate, Infotrak and Strategic Research, either showed the race all tied up or gave a slight lead for Raila.
But the findings of the surveys indicated the presidential contest will most certainly be settled in a run-off election, which the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has scheduled for April 10. The Ipsos Synovate poll, which questioned 2,500 respondents on February 13 through to February 15, showed Uhuru and Raila tied at 43 per cent.
The margin of error was plus or minus 1.96 percentage points. The Infotrak Research poll, which questioned 2,572 respondents between February 15 and 17, indicated Raila had the support of 46 per cent of those polled while 44 per cent backed Uhuru. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Strategic Research, which interviewed 2,500 respondents between February 14 and 17, indicated 44 per cent of the respondents would vote for Raila while Uhuru would secure 43 per cent of the vote with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.14 percentage points. And the Ipsos Synovate poll also predicted Raila and Uhuru would go neck-and-neck if the presidential vote is pushed to a second round. Asked who their preferred candidate was in case of a runoff, 22 per cent chose Raila against 21 per cent for Uhuru. Eagle Alliance presidential candidate Peter Kenneth was preferred by 14 per cent of voters incase of a runoff.
The three polls indicated the candidate ranked third, Amani Coalition’s Musalia Mudavadi, trails the frontrunners by a wide margin. Ipsos Synovate showed Mudavadi would secure five per cent of the vote while Strategic Research and Infotrak gave Mudavadi six per cent. The three national polls  commissioned by Citizen Television showed Raila’s CORD coalition and Uhuru’s Jubilee alliance command equal support.
Asked which political alliance in the coming election they supported or felt closest CORD and Jubilee Alliance tied at 44 per cent.  Infotrak also showed the rival coalitions enjoyed equal support across the country at 45 per cent. But Strategic Research suggested CORD was slightly more popular (44 per cent) than Jubilee Alliance (43 per cent).  Infotrak conducted the poll in 29 counties,  Strategic Research 33 counties and Synovate 35. Uhuru and Raila enjoy more support in regions perceived to be their strongholds, reflecting the ethnic voting pattern.
Men and women
Raila had the highest support in Nyanza (85 per cent) and the least in Central (10 per cent), according to the Infotrak poll. Uhuru had the highest backing in Central (85 per cent) and the least in Nyanza (13.1 per cent). The two candidates, the Infotrak poll showed, have even support among men and women with Raila attracting the backing of 45 per cent of males compared to 47 per cent of females. More male respondents (45 per cent) endorsed Uhuru’s candidacy compared to women (40 per cent).
The Strategic Research poll identified unemployment, corruption and landlessness, as the main problems Kenyans want the next administration to address.
Asked by Ipsos Synovate what are the main issues they wanted the next government to address, majority (21 per cent) said creation of employment opportunities, followed by education (17 per cent) and security (16 per cent).  Uhuru and Raila have sparred over the land question and they have rolled out manifestoes capturing these issues while seeking to connect with the voters.


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