The “Tyranny Of Numbers 2.0” Mutahi Ngunyi’s Analysis Refined.

February 19, 2013|Posted in: Opinion

By Kenya Today

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There has been uproar about the recent projection of numbers made by Mutahi Ngunyi which gave Jubilee Alliance an advantage over CORD Coalition.  For the first time, Ngunyi was dismissed by the public especially on social media.

It is an open secret that any political contest can only be won on numbers. A group of political scientists and social research experts took a critical look at the Ngunyi analysis taking into account the emerging developments from the battle front areas all over the country.

Here are the numbers tagged “Tyranny Of Numbers 2.0”

Let’s look at this numbers from various regions:

	Province	Total Registered Voters IEBC
1	Central	2, 190,476
2	Nyanza	1, 954,756
3	Western	1, 434,987
4	Coast	1, 640,083
5	N. Eastern	504,482
6	Eastern	2, 092,883
7	Rift Valley	3, 373,853
8	Nairobi	1, 778,903

It’s regrettable that majority of the electorate will vote along tribal lines.

Jubilee Alliance’s Uhuru Kenyatta support base is in the former provinces of central, Rift Valley, part-Nairobi and part-Eastern. From face value, if Jubilee can keep intact these regions and presume 85% support then a win in the first round will be imminent, however a deeper scratch into the numbers complicates the puzzle.

To ring the alarm bell for Jubilee, let’s take a look at the supposed Jubilee strongholds of Rift Valley, Eastern and Nairobi provinces (former provinces- scrapped under the new constitution but the territories are intact); Central is purely uncontested for Jubilee just like Nyanza is for CORD.

We start with Rift Valley the home ground of William Ruto, running mate to Jubilee Alliance’s Uhuru Kenyatta. The reality on the ground is that majority of the Kalenjin will vote as per Ruto’s wishes while majority of the cosmopolitan areas will vote a long ethnic lines and a minority will take account of national interests.

1.   Rift Valley Region

The core Kalenjin Counties

Item	County	Registered Voters
1	Elgeeyo Marakwet	134,290
2	Nandi	254,788
3	Baringo	171,013
4	Kericho	290,102
5	Bomet	254,405
	Totals	1,104,598

The total of 1,104,598 from the core Kalenjin Counties can be assigned to Jubilee since William Ruto commands the region save for a significant minority of Tea Plantation workers in Kericho, Bomet and Nandi compromising mainly Gusii and Luo tribes. Gideon Mois’s KANU in an alliance with Mudavadi may chip out an insignificant minority to do spoils.

The non Kalenjin Rift Valley

Item	County	Registered Voters
1	Kajiado	315,053
2	Narok	253,086
3	Turkana	120,345
4	West Pokot	107,894
5	Samburu	56,662
6	Trans Nzoia	231,352
7	Uasin Gishu	318,717
8	Laikipia	170,267
9	Nakuru	695,879
	Totals	2,269,255

The above Counties do not have a clear favorite; Jubilee cannot confidently claim more than 60% command, here is why; The Maasai who reside in Narok and Kajiado are largely pro CORD courtesy of Hon Ntimama and Rtd General Nkaisery, the Mau eviction and the perceived historical land injustices are the major hindrance not to support Jubilee.

Samburu and West Pokot Counties might be a 50% scoop for both CORD and Jubilee. Trans Nzoia is purely cosmopolitan with Luhya, Kikiyu, Kisii and kalenjin farmers’ residing in the area with the natives Sabaot giving neither CORD nor Jubilee an edge.

Nakuru is more cosmopolitan and if you scan the register of Nakuru County, Gusii, Luhya, Akamba and Luo hit at 258,624 voters that give Jubilee a lead of that can be of maximum 60%.

From the foregoing break down of Rift Valley, Jubilee Alliance cannot brag to command the region beyond 60%. Half of its votes are for split!
If the split especially due to the cosmopolitan nature of some parts, the Maasai, Turkana, Samburu gives Raila between 800,000 – 1million votes from Rift Valley, that will be a nightmare for Jubilee and may be a game changer! With Maasai, Samburu and Turkana intact add the Diaspora Luyha, Kisii and other communities forming the cosmopolitan the math may just add up for Raila and NOT for Jubilee.  A few weeks ago CORD signed a MoU with Kalenjin elders, farmers and professionals; this may also give Raila some numbers albeit insignificant.

Raila’s schemes and political antics will be at play, he can cut through these numbers which is practically possible. Jubilee may have the numbers in Rift Valley but NOT a clear majority and this makes the math of numbers COMPLICATED for Jubilee in RIFT VALLEY

2. Nairobi Region

Nairobi has a total 1,778,903 IEBC registered voters. Since elections will be held in March, the IEBC calendar has forced the village voters to vote from the city as they won’t be travelling home for Christmas holidays as they used. This explains why voter registration turnout was 138% in Nairobi. As per Register scan Luo, Luhya, Kamba and Gusii who are CORD inclined tally to 1,192,037 if they will be faithful to their ethnic spirit like their village counterparts then they are likely to vote for CORD and an insignificant minority to vote for Amani.  We only hope that Jubilee team is aware of this variance in numbers. There is no doubt CORD’s Raila Odinga will emerge a winner in NAIROBI by at least 1M votes assuming >95% voter turnout

3. Eastern Region

Eastern can be split into two regions; the upper Eastern region has historically been voting together with Central under the GEMA banner and is expected to do so this time round. However the lower Eastern compromising mainly the Kamba will most likely vote for CORD? Charity Ngilu is a light weight, with no significant position in Jubilee alliance she has nothing sway the Kamba vote to Jubilee, this time she is a paper tiger!
Let me sample the numbers from all the counties in EASTERN.

Item	County	Registered  Voters
1	Makueni	300,086
2	Machakos	445,819
3	Kitui	323,624
	Total	1,069,529

Lower Eastern comprising mainly Akamba with registered votes of 1,069,529 can be said to be under the wraps of CORD.

Item	County	Registered Voters
1	Meru	483,517
2	Isiolo	52,617
3	Marsabit	104,408
4	Embu	226,989
5	Tharaka	155,82
	Totals	1,023,354

Isiolo and Marsabit might be an equal share or a slight win for CORD.
Meru, Tharaka and Embu are solidly in Jubilee HOWEVER the recent inroads by Raila to Meru and the ban of Mira export to Netherlands where Raila is perceived to be better placed to negotiate with European union than Uhuru who is leaning towards China, North Korea, Iran, Syria and rest of Africa where Mira got no market, this may give Raila some votes though insignificant.

With the mistreatment of Kiraitu Murungi and subsequent Mbus take off, Jubilee is vulnerable in Meru, they can win BUT CORD may get a significant minority.

Mutahi Ngunyi’s numbers will only be true had Jubilee got absolute control of Eastern, Nairobi and Rift Valley.

CORD is expected to lead with a big margin in Coast province, Lower Eastern, Western, North Eastern and Nyanza as opposed to Jubilee’s lead in Rift Valley, Central Province and Upper Eastern.

As shown above Raila is likely to get 1 Million votes in Rift valley mainly from the Maasai, Turkana, Samburu and the Cosmopolitan or CORD aligned immigrant communities of Gusii, Luyha, Luo and Kamba. This may enable Raila Odinga to win round one and this is practically and politically possible.

If RAILA won’t win round one, he will definitely win the run off on the basis that:
-The Hague/ICC related complications
- Senior Jubilee stalwarts like Prof. Ongeri, Balala, Mwakwele and Ngilu would fail to win their senate races; they will be in shock and embarrassed to come out and campaign for Jubilee in their respective home turfs. With all the fringe Presidential candidates out of national limelight, Jubilee will be confirmed a two tribe outfit hence will be rejected by majority of Kenyans. And this is without mention of SANCTIONS!

The game changer for the leading coalitions is the voter turnout; let all Kenyans go out and vote wisely and wait March 4^th to confirm this analysis.

Coming soon >> the graphical representation of the analysis.