Raila, Uhuru campaign teams change tack in bid to win race

By EMEKA-MAYAKA GEKARA gmayaka@ke.nationmedia.com  ( email the author)

Posted  Saturday, February 16  2013 at  21:01

In Summary

• To avoid the second round, the Kenyatta campaign has come up with a three-pronged strategy. First, work hard to consolidate their strongholds such as Central Kenya, Rift Valley, Upper Eastern and Nairobi.
• Emboldened by the poll results which have consistently put Mr Odinga in the lead, the Cord campaign is determined to widen the margin by an aggressive grassroots effort using outfits such as ODM Mashinani and the Ababu Namwamba-led Cord Effect.
• Mr Mudavadi’s entry into the presidential race has complicated the ground especially for Cord, with fears that it might deny Mr Odinga the bloc that voted for him in the last election.

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With two weeks to the elections, presidential candidates Raila Odinga’s and Uhuru Kenyatta’s campaign teams have come up with last-minute strategies to enable them win polls.

Conversations with officials painted a picture of intensified rallies and media campaigns in the next two weeks with strong closing arguments on key issues such as land, the International Criminal Court and implementation of the Constitution.

Inquiries by the Sunday Nation revealed that Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee is determined to ensure that it wins in the first round in a contest in which the latest opinion polls show it is two points behind Mr Odinga.

The fear in the Jubilee campaign is that a second round poll would “polarise the country” and work in favour of Mr Odinga who could reap from parts of Western Province supporting Amani Coalition presidential candidate Musalia Mudavadi.

To avoid the second round, the Kenyatta campaign has come up with a three-pronged strategy. First, work hard to consolidate their strongholds such as Central Kenya, Rift Valley, Upper Eastern and Nairobi.

Second is to fight for a share of Coast and North Eastern.

The party also intends to deploy grassroots leaders such as candidates for county representatives to wage an aggressive last- minute campaign to ensure high turnout in Jubilee strongholds.

And to win the youth vote, the party has established the well-oiled “Dunda na Jubilee” youth lobby going around the country rallying support for the Uhuru-Ruto ticket as well as revamp their social media campaign platforms on Twitter and Facebook.

The Jubilee coalition yesterday denied accusations by Mr Odinga’s campaign that sections of government had activated the provincial administration machinery to rally support for Mr Kenyatta.

According to Mr Moses Kuria who is at the heart of the Jubilee campaign, the team will spend the next few days to address divisive issues such as land and the ICC.

“We will be telling the rest of the country that there will not be any international sanctions and the matter of qualification to run for election has been concluded by the courts,” said Mr Kuria in reference to the Friday court ruling allowing Mr Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto, who are facing charges at the ICC, to contest the presidency.

Mr Kuria said that Jubilee will come up with “robust” regional messages targeting Western, Luo Nyanza and Ukambani, the stronghold of Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka of Cord.

“We will be telling them that they cannot afford to be outside government. They must join us so that we can win the match in the first round.”

And they are not leaving anything to chance.

They have formed teams of about 30 men and women per polling station to monitor voting on elections day.

According to officials, members of the teams are undergoing serious vetting to ensure that they are not “bought” by opponents.

Emboldened by the poll results which have consistently put Mr Odinga in the lead, the Cord campaign is determined to widen the margin by an aggressive grassroots effort using outfits such as ODM Mashinani and the Ababu Namwamba-led Cord Effect.

The other strategy is to consolidate their strongholds and “raid” areas leaning towards Jubilee such as Rift Valley, especially the South Rift (Kericho and Bomet), Meru, Embu in Mt Kenya then cordon their rivals off Coast and the two counties of Gusii.

The Cord strategy informs Mr Odinga’s campaign in the South Rift and Nandi this weekend after his trip in Meru and Embu.

Both teams appear to agree that Rift Valley will be a challenge.

Whereas the region that is home to Mr Ruto could register an impressive vote for Jubilee, there is concern a considerable population might vote for Mr Odinga.

The Orange expects to garner votes in Turkana where it has Cabinet minister John Munyes and assistant minister Joseph Nanok, Trans-Nzoia which has a high number of the Bukusu, Pokot, Samburu and the Maa counties of Narok and Kajiado.

Mr Herbert Kerre, a lecturer at the Kabianga University College, reckons that Mr Odinga could garner a sizeable vote from the Rift Valley because of its cosmopolitan demographics.

“Residents of other communities in the Rift Valley who are not members of the Jubilee family are likely to be persuaded to vote for Cord and this eats into Mr Ruto’s numbers,” says Mr Kerre.

The Rift Valley has a sizeable population of the Luhya, Kamba, Kisii and Kikuyu communities.

However, Mr Kuria reckons that despite its cosmopolitan nature, a huge chunk of the Rift Valley will vote Jubilee.

“We have impressive support in Kajiado, Narok and Samburu.”

Away from Rift valley, the Gusii region remains a key battleground between Prime Minister Odinga’s Cord Coalition and Mr Kenyatta’s Jubilee Coalition.

While Mr Odinga’s campaign is keen to ensure that the whole of Nyanza -- including the two Gusii counties of Kisii and Nyamira -- vote as a bloc for him, the Jubilee team hopes that Gusiiland would hand them the much needed 25 per cent vote.

Mr Mudavadi’s entry into the presidential race has complicated the ground especially for Cord, with fears that it might deny Mr Odinga the bloc that voted for him in the last election.

A line of argument has emerged that Mr Mudavadi’s candidature could push the poll to the second round.

Jubilee Coalition is also careful to ensure that Mr Mudavadi’s Amani Coalition, which has been endorsed by former President Moi, does not eat into its Rift Valley stronghold especially in Baringo, Trans-Nzoia, Kericho and Bomet which is the home of Kanu secretary-general Nick Salat.

Mr Gideon Moi, an ally of Mr Mudavadi, is seeking the Baringo Senate seat.

However, Mr Odinga’s team is confident that it has won the support of Bungoma county which was in President Kibaki’s column in 2007.

But while Mr Odinga’s campaign has raised the red flag over possible rigging of the elections, Mr Kenyatta says Jubilee has confidence in the electoral commission. Speaking in Malindi yesterday, he questioned what had become of Cord “gloating over opinion polls”.