Observers give their take on candidates performance after the first face-off

By PETER OPIYO

Nairobi, Kenya: A day after Monday’s historic presidential debate, campaign teams were assessing the performance of their candidates and monitoring feedback to determine what impact it had for their campaigns.

Independent analysts suggested the presidential debate might particularly influence decisions by undecided voters whom opinion polls have suggested constitute five per cent of the 14 million registered voters.

They also explained the debate in which eight presidential candidates faced off offered voters an opportunity to gauge the candidates’ grasp of issues and also scrutinise their demeanour, temperament and ability to think on their feet. 

But there was scepticism that the presidential debate was unlikely to have a major influence on the electorate, as it is perceived that many have made up their minds and that ethnic voting pattern would also wield its usual influence. 

The fact that the country has a tradition of voting along ethnic lines, some analysts argue, lessened the impact of the debate but at the same time they argued it may have influenced the way the middle class and undecided voters would vote.

 Electoral Institute of Sustainable Democracy in Africa County Director, Felix Odhiambo, says for the leading candidates — Jubilee’s Uhuru Kenyatta and Coalition for Reform and Democracy’s Raila Odinga — the debate was not a make-or-break affair.

Instead the analysts argued it was just a platform to, “appeal to their voters and re-energise their interests”. “Presidential debate didn’t make or break Raila or Uhuru. To them they were just appealing and re-energising their support,” argued Odhiambo.

He however, says it may make a run-off more real if the two failed to appeal to the undecided voters, which pollsters have estimated to account for five per cent of registered voters.

Law Society of Kenya Chairman Eric Mutua suggested the debate — though a step in the right direction in terms of political maturity — would have negligible impact in influencing the decision of the electorate.

“The debate can only influence the middle class to some extent but because of the way we vote, along ethnic lines, I don’t think it broke the bondage of ethnicity,” says Mutua.

Make-or-break

The chief executive of leading pollster, Infotrak, Ms Angela Ambitho, said the debate might not have an impact on voting as voters, out of curiosity, just wanted to see how their candidates handled issues.

She however, says it may have an impact on the undecided voters. “I don’t think it may impact on voting but it may have an impact on the three to five per cent of the undecided voters,” Ambitho told The Standard.

“If Raila and Uhuru didn’t persuade the undecided voters then they would shift to Narc-Kenya’s Martha Karua, Amani’s Musalia Mudavadi and Kenya Social Congress’ Peter Kenneth, making a presidential run-off possible,” argued Odhiambo.

In his view Mudavadi, Karua and Kenneth scored highly on a number of issues compared to the big guns.

The experts however, agree the debate is a step in the right direction and it gives the public the opportunity to gauge their leaders in their understanding of issues and if they carry themselves as presidential material.  “It was an excellent step in embracing democracy. It is a good practice that sets a precedent and it is a step in the right direction,” Ambitho pointed out.

Former Mandera Central MP, Abdikadir Mohamed, says the debate gave the public opportunity to assess their leaders adding their decision would be influenced by the candidates’ performance. “It was a historic milestone in our democracy and it demystified our politics. It is now for the public to decide as all presidential candidates were all placed on the same pedestal,” said Abdikadir.

He argues that the issue of numerical strength of some communities may not count after all as the public was more aware regarding issues affecting them and which candidate had a better plan to tackle their problems.

“Kenyans now have a clear understanding of their presidential candidates and the issue of numbers may not work because people will now be open-minded,” argued Abdikadir.

Former chairman of the Constitutional of Kenya Review Commission Prof Yash Pal Ghai said the presidential debate was a better forum to gauge the candidates than the one-way platforms that are public rallies. “This dialogue forces people to give more thought about the presidential candidates. If they see nervous politicians sweating it out, it affords them an opportunity to assess them and decide whether they believe in them and vote for them or shift to other candidates,” Prof Ghai said.

The debate that brought together eight presidential candidates was the first in the history of Kenya and was beamed live across the country.

A ballot was conducted for the first six candidates to determine which podium they would stand on. So ole Kiyiapi, Uhuru, Kenneth, Mudavadi,  Karua and Raila took up positions in that order. Alliance for Real Change candidate Mohamed Dida and Safina’s Paul Muite had to do with makeshift podiums following their late entry into the debate.