‘Kenyans vote along ethnic lines’ says analyst

Written By:Rufus Hunja,    Posted: Wed, Feb 06, 2013

Mutahi Ngunyi's sentiments have elicited varied reactions from Kenyans The forthcoming general election has been described as too close to call with pollsters placing CORD and Jubilee coalitions head to head in popularity ratings. But amid the ongoing popularity contest between the two frontrunners, Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi reckons that Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee coalition will win the 4th March general election against Raila Odinga's Cord alliance based on assumptions that the GEMA and the Kalenjin communities vote for him to the last man. Citing the number of registered voters as provided by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission in his 'Tyranny of Numbers' analysis, Mutahi says Kenyans vote along ethnic lines and Uhuru will garner about 6.2 Million votes 900 thousand short of the 50+1 threshold while Raila will get 2.8 million votes. In a seven point minimum scenarios for the 2013 general election dubbed the Tyranny of Numbers, political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi breaks down Kenyans voting patterns and comes up with a possible outcome of the election. In what has elicited unparalleled debate in the social media, Ngunyi reckons that the Jubilee coalition under the leadership of Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto will garner about 6.1 million votes from Gema and Kalenjin communities but still fall short of the envisaged 50+1 majority. In his hypothesis, Mutahi infers that Raila Odinga's Cord Alliance will garner 2.8 million votes from the Luo, Kamba and Turkanas, 4.3 million votes less than the required majority. His analysis in both scenarios is based on his assumption that Kenyans vote on tribal affiliations and therefore all Kikuyus will vote for Uhuru, as well as the Kalenjins because of his partnership with Ruto. Ngunyi controversially states that the election was won when IEBC released the voter register saying Raila must now focus on mobilizing his supporters to vote in numbers to prevent a Jubilee win in the first round. Either he points out that a run-off may be affected by the requirement that Uhuru and Ruto be at The Hague as required by the ICC. Ngunyi says Amani coalition candidate Musalia Mudavadi will consolidate the Luhya vote but it will not be enough to propel him to State House. He labels Eagle coalition Peter Kenneth as a future leader who is in the current contest to popularize his bid in coming years. Mutahi Ngunyi's sentiments have elicited varied reactions from Kenyans, with the ballot which is just 25 days away the only tool to validate or nullify his hypothetical analysis of the country's political power matrix.