UHURU KENYATTA will beat RAILA ODINGA hands down – CURRENT and 2007 STATISTICS

The Kenyan DAILY POSTEditor's Choice, Politics02:52

Monday January 7, 2013 - Going by the latest statistics, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta will beat Prime Minister Raila Odinga hands down despite Raila leading in the opinion polls.

Basing our report on the 2007 general election voting patterns where 80 percent of the voters turned out, Uhuru team will bag more votes than Raila’s team.

For instance in Nairobi, out of 1.6m registered voters Uhuru and Raila will averagely garner 50 percent each of the votes cast. That translates to over 800,000 each votes for both Raila and Uhuru.

In Coast province which is perceived to be an ODM stronghold, out of the total 1.1 million registered voters Raila will take an upper hand of over 7oo, ooo votes while Uhuru takes 350, ooo votes.

In North Eastern province which is perceived to be a neutral grounds for both Uhuru and Raila, they will each take 50-50 which translates to 150,000 votes each.

 In Eastern Province, Raila will approximately take close to 1 million Kamba vote while Uhuru takes 800,000 Meru, Embu and a few Kamba votes.

In the populous Rift Valley, which was a battle ground in 2007, Kibaki took 850,000 while Raila took 1.5 million votes. But in the upcoming election, the Kibaki’s votes which consisted of Laikipia, Subukia, Nakuru and upper RV counties  will  now be Uhuru’s plus the 1.5 million Kalenjin vote which translates  to 2.3 million votes for Uhuru  against 800,000 for Raila.

In the Western region, Mudavadi’s entry into the fold has shifted Raila’s and Uhuru’s political fortunes and it is expected that Mudavadi will out rightly get over half the share of Luhya votes. Assuming that over 1.2 million are cast, Mudavadi will outrightly get over 600,000 votes with Raila and Uhuru sharing the rest. Raila may get 500,000 and Uhuru may get only 5o, ooo votes  from the region

In Nyanza region Raila will get a bloc of 1.7 million votes while Uhuru takes Central province as bloc of 2.1 million votes.

In summary here is the table;

Region	Raila Odinga votes	Uhuru Kenyatta votes
Nairobi	800,ooo	800,000
Coast	700,ooo	350,000
North eastern	150,ooo	150,000
Eastern	1,ooo,000	8oo,000
Rift Valley	800,ooo	2,300,000
Western	500,000	50,000
Nyanza	1,700,ooo	-
Central	-	2,100,000
Totals	5,650,000	6,550,000

Remember numbers don’t lie…… Look at how Kenyans voted in 2007 and the opinion polls. A close analysis of each Province

OPINION POLL figures leading to 2007

Poll date	Kibaki	Musyoka	Odinga	Mudavadi	Ruto	Kenyatta
October 2006	41%	20%	13%		3%	5%
December 2006	42%	20%	14%		3%	5%
March 2007	51%	14%	17%	2%	2%	2%
April 2007	44.3%	15.3%	18.7%	2.7%	2.6%	3.5%
June 2007	45%	14%	28%	4%	3%	4%
July 2007	45%	11%	25%	3%	2%	2%
August 2007	42%	11%	25%	8%	6%	1%
August 2007	47%	13%	36%	1%		1%
September 2007	38%	8%	47%
October 13, 2007	37%	8%	53%
October 23, 2007	39%	8%	50%
November 9, 2007	41%	11%	45%
November 21, 2007	41.4%	14.7%	40.7%
November 17, 2007	42%	11%	45%
November 23, 2007	43.3%	11.4%	43.6%
December 7, 2007	42%	10%	46%
December 18, 2007	43%	10%	45%

GENERAL RESULTS per candidate in 2007

Party		Candidate	Votes (ECK) 29 Jan	Votes (Kibaki Gov't)
	PNU	Mwai Kibaki	4,578,034	4,584,721	47%
	ODM	Raila Odinga	4,352,860	4,352,993	44%
	ODM-K	Kalonzo Musyoka	879,899	879,903	9%
	KPTP	Joseph Karani	21,168	21,171	0.2%
	KPP	Pius Muiru	9,665	9,667	0.09%
	WCPK	Nazlin Omar	8,624	8,624	0.087%
	SSA	Kenneth Matiba	8,049	8,046	0.081%
	CCUP	David Ng'ethe	5,976	5,976	0.06%
	RPK	Nixon Kukubo	5,926	5,927	0.06%

ANALYSIS per PROVINCE and voting blocs

Province	Kibaki	%	Odinga	%	Kalonzo	%	Others	%	Votes Cast	Registered Voters	Turnout
NAIROBI	313,478	47.7%	288,922	44.0%	52,974	8.1%	1,845	0.3%	657,219	1,275,021	51.5%
COAST	197,354	33.1%	353,773	59.4%	38,881	6.5%	5,909	1.0%	595,917	1,045,629	57.0%
NORTH EASTERN	97,263	50.3%	91,440	47.2%	4,498	2.3%	333	0.2%	193,534	315,664	61.3%
EASTERN	835,481	50.4%	83,575	5.0%	726,782	43.8%	13,229	0.8%	1,659,067	2,516,998	65.9%
CENTRAL	1,741,086	97.0%	34,046	1.9%	11,702	0.7%	7,215	0.4%	1,794,049	2,186,315	82.1%
RIFT VALLEY	818,445	33.5%	1,580,880	64.6%	33,863	1.4%	12,300	0.5%	2,445,488	3,358,285	72.8%
WESTERN	312,300	32.2%	639,246	65.9%	6,729	0.7%	11,417	1.2%	969,692	1,564,854	62.0%
NYANZA	262,627	16.9%	1,280,978	82.4%	4,476	0.3%	7,160	0.5%	1,555,235	2,041,686	76.2%
Totals	4,578,034	46.4%	4,352,860	44.1%	879,899	8.9%	59,408	0.6%	9,870,201	14,304,452	69.0%

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