How the battle is shaping up

Jubilee flag bearer Uhuru Kenyatta and running mate William Ruto during a rally in Garissa, Friday.

By Oscar Obonyo

NAIROBI; KENYA: After the three-day tumultuous party primaries, the electoral battle is shaping up in earnest between main combatants, Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) and deputy premier Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Alliance.

The ethnic dimension of Kenyan politics was also clearly apparent in the voting patterns and presence or absence of candidates from either of the two main competing coalitions in certain areas of the country despite the coalitions having attempted to paint CORD and Jubilee had gained a clear head start in certain regions. On paper, Uhuru’s party appeared to have the upper hand, with a commanding presence in most counties in the gubernatorial and senatorial race.

Out of the 47 counties, Jubilee appears set to field the largest number of aspirants in 27 counties, including Embu, Laikipia, Nakuru, Isiolo, Kajiado, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Bomet and Kericho. Others include Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Meru and Tharaka. Jubilee also has a heavy presence in Turkana, Samburu, Narok, West Pokot, Garissa, Lamu and Nairobi counties.

Exuding confidence

So far, CORD has a strong showing in 24 counties, including Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Trans Nzoia, Mombasa, Kwale and Kilifi. The party has also attracted a high number of candidates in Garissa, Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira Turkana, Samburu, Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado and Nairobi.

The concentration of candidates in the Amani coalition is in nine counties, namely Trans Nzoia, Busia, Bungoma, Kakamega, Vihiga, Mombasa, Nakuru, Nairobi and Kisii. However, the fact that Amani and Eagle alliances did not stage the exercise in most counties complicates quantification of the parties’ strength and presence.

By last night, all teams were exuding confidence with Jubilee strategist Moses Kuria claiming his side of the alliance starts off with a staggering 225 parliamentary seats out of the 337 elective slots.

“With regard to the Senate seats, our projection definitely surpasses the threshold of more than half the total number of counties. Ideally, to gauge the strength of Jubilee, one only needs to reflect on the polling figures in our primaries, especially that posted by (URP’s Charles) Keter,” says Kuria of the outgoing Belgut MP who garnered over 137,000 in his quest for the post of Kericho Senator.

But maintaining, to the contrary, that the exercise went on smoothly in all the counties except three, head of Raila presidential campaign, Eliud Owalo, says focus will now shift to engaging candidates within CORD with a view to persuading them to field a single candidate within cosmopolitan areas and so-called swing counties. Roads minister and head of the ODM elections board is expected to spearhead the negotiations.

“We want to come out strong with at least 60 per cent of gubernatorial and senatorial seats, and about 60 per cent of MPs,” Mr Owalo told The Standard On Sunday.

Trading barbs

Despite kicking off the exercise on the first day on Thursday and executing the same fairly well, the situation turned chaotic for Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a member party of the CORD alliance, thereby reversing its gains.

“If only our aspirants in just three of the total 47 counties would have behaved with restraint and more orderly, we would have avoided this ugly drama and completed the exercise in a more credible manner and ahead of everybody,” lamented Bett.

Before the ugly episodes in Homa Bay, Kisumu and Siaya counties unfolded on Friday, with enraged votes shouting anti-Raila slogans, owing to rigging claims, the party’s functionaries had a field day taunting their Jubilee rivals.

They poked fun at Jubilee’s “digital” system for operating slower than CORD’s “analogue” system. This is an apparent reference to sentiments by Ruto, who has fashioned Jubilee as the “digital party” (of youthful politicians) and CORD as the “analogue one” (older politicians).

But CORD’s chest thumping went up in smoke when the PM’s rural backyard literally went up in smoke – courtesy of burning of tyres in violent protests along highways.

“Everybody has been tainted by these primaries, but no doubt our competitors have been splattered with the most filth,” says Jubilee strategist, Moses Kuria, in reference to the protests witnessed in Kisumu, Siaya and Homa Bay counties.

In a successive drama, Dr Oginga Oburu’s challenger for the Siaya County Senate seat, William Oduol, declared himself winner only for the same to be reversed by the ODM electoral official. Similarly, outgoing Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo found himself in same ping-pong. The spin given to the drama, was that the CORD presidential candidate was trying to lend a helping hand to his elder brother Oburu and cousin, Jakoyo. Raila has denied the claims.

But the situation was not any better for Jubilee. The exercise was characterised by fracases and violent protests, especially in Central Kenya region and Nairobi, owing to rigging claims.

In particular, was the incident involving winner of the Nairobi gubernatorial contest Ferdinand Waititu. Although TNA had conceded the poll figures, by the time of going to the press, the outgoing Embakasi MP had not officially been handed the ticket, with National Chairman Johnson Sakaja maintaining “the result was not final”.

Jubilee finds itself in a dilemma on how to deal with the Waititu issue having previously given him a deadline to provide proof of his academic credentials but somehow letting him proceed to the nomination stage despite not having sorted out the academic papers snafu.

The Standard On Sunday has since established that Waititu may well be a victim of checkmating between his alliance and the rival CORD.

Will it be Kidero Vs Waititu or Kidero Vs Jimnah?

With former Mumias Sugar Company CEO Dr Evans Kidero now officially CORD’s flag bearer for the most important county in the country, there is a feeling that Waititu should stand down in favour of investment banker, Jimnah Mbaru.

This is indeed a tricky affair for Jubilee, for while this is the thinking among the middle-class and more affluent voters, Waititu draws largely his support among the common mwananchi and slum dweller, who form the majority voting bloc.

Separately, the voting trend in the primaries clearly demonstrates the entrenchment of tribalised politics in the elections, in a similar way as in the highly polarised 2007 General Election.

The trend is persuaded by conventional wisdom that certain parties are unpopular with voters from certain regions and cannot therefore field candidates in such places. Otherwise, how does one explain the absence of Jubilee candidates in Nyanza region, for instance? Alternatively, why is CORD absent in Central Kenya region?

In an effort to beat this challenge – by default or design – both CORD and Jubilee seem to have decided instead to use “friendlier” parties to set foot in the rival’s territory. Except in Kakamega and Bungoma where, for instance, the alliance has fielded a single candidate in each for governor and senator, Jubilee is outrightly absent at county level seats in western Kenya.

And in the two slots, candidates in this region conveniently opted for URP and not TNA party ticket. Locals consider the Uhuru-led party more acceptable as opposed to Uhuru’s TNA.

Similarly in Central Kenya, where CORD has a foothold, the candidates mainly opted for Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka-led Wiper Democratic Movement and not Raila’s ODM.