Uhuru getting ahead of himself in State House race

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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, November 24  2012 at  17:09

IN SUMMARY

• Advice: The trick in politics is to avoid dancing yourself lame before the main event

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It’s not March 4, 2013 yet, and the votes haven’t been tallied. But one gets the distinct impression that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta thinks he’s already succeeded President Mwai Kibaki at State House.

This is the question – has Mr Kenyatta taken the helm of the State from President Kibaki, or is he simply hallucinating? Is Mr Kibaki a ceremonial president fronting for Mr Kenyatta, the real power behind the throne? Known in the street as “Kamwana” – the youngster – Mr Kenyatta is proving to be anything but.

He appears to have brought his large patrimony to the political battlefield. He’s bulldozing friends and foes alike. Can anyone – including PM Raila Odinga – stop the “Kenyatta Express” to State House?

Four reasons

Here are four reasons why Mr Kenyatta has supplanted Mr Kibaki at the pinnacle of the State. First, Mr Kenyatta – the most visible scion of the Burning Spear – has completely eviscerated the original PNU. He’s marginalised PNU’s most important ally, VP Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper Democratic Movement.

I know Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi’s Alliance Party of Kenya – which he wants to herd the Meru into – has sought to resist Mr Kenyatta’s tidal wave in Mt Kenya.

But Mr Murungi is a minnow to Mr Kenyatta, a political barracuda. Mr Kenyatta could cannibalise Mr Murungi in a nanosecond. Mr Kenyatta appears to have taken over President Kibaki’s political mantle.

It can’t be gainsaid that the son of Jomo bestrides Mr Kibaki’s haunts like a colossus. He has rendered irrelevant key Kikuyu aspirants – Gichugu MP Martha Karua and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth.

They are gasping for air as Mr Kenyatta leaves them in a cloud of dust. It’s true that Mr Kibaki’s kitchen cabinet doesn’t want Mr Kenyatta to ascend to the throne. In fact, many Kikuyu elite don’t, but Mr Kenyatta has the Kikuyu hoi polloi behind him.

Methinks that Mr Kibaki – the proverbial fence-sitter – will sit on the fence until he goes back to Othaya in March. He won’t publicly endorse – or repudiate – Mr Kenyatta. But methinks silence can be taken for acquiescence.

The question is why Mr Kenyatta has hog-tied President Kibaki. The answer is the second reason Mr Kenyatta has snatched power from Kibaki. It’s – you guessed it – the “little matter” of the International Criminal Court.

Mr Kenyatta knows that he has President Kibaki in a corner. That’s why Mr Kibaki has done everything to save Mr Kenyatta from the ICC.

If the allegations of the ICC prosecutor are true – that President Kibaki was at a State House meeting with Mr Kenyatta with Mungiki operatives – then the former could be in legal jeopardy.

Mr Kenyatta could further implicate President Kibaki at the ICC. This would explain Mr Kenyatta’s sway over President Kibaki. They have to protect one another, or go down together.

The third reason is Mr Kenyatta’s “official” visits to heads of state in the East African region. So far, Mr Kenyatta has either visited, or plans to visit, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda. Only Somalia – for obvious reasons – isn’t on his itinerary. He’s taken his political acolytes on those jaunts. I wonder who’s footing the bill.

Since Mr Kenyatta is neither the President nor the Prime Minister – and has no substantive portfolio – one wonders in what capacity he’s conducting these quasi-official trips.

Is he conducting foreign policy? Or does he represent himself to the host states as the heir-apparent to President Kibaki? How does he explain the ICC matter to his hosts? These aren’t trivial questions.

Fourth reason

The fourth reason is the curious reconstitution of the Cabinet to pack it with Mr Kenyatta’s cronies. The first was the appointment of Finance minister Robinson Githae, his ally, to the Treasury. Then legal eagle Mutula Kilonzo was removed from the ministry of Justice and moved to the ministry of Education.

Mr Kilonzo was replaced by legal greenhorn Eugene Wamalwa, an ardent Kenyatta supporter. Mr Kilonzo was moved from Justice for insisting that Mr Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto shouldn’t seek the presidency because of the ICC charges for crimes against humanity.

Any doubt Mr Kenyatta controlled Cabinet appointments disappeared when Mr Kibaki appointed MP Katoo ole Metito to the Internal Security docket upon the demise of Prof George Saitoti.

It’s no accident that many appointments in the Cabinet, or the public service, have followed a similar pattern. Either President Kibaki is on a long nap, or he’s given “Kamwana” the green light to pack the State with his “yes” men.

Either way, Mr Kenyatta has left no doubt that he’s in charge. You can tell from the bravado and braggadocio with which he’s strutting his stuff. Recently, he told opponents to join him.

He’s warned Mt Kenya politicos to follow him. He sounds like the Kanu of old. It’s political tyranny we haven’t seen since former President Daniel arap Moi was “evicted” from power in 2002.

The peril for Mr Kenyatta lurks in his sense of entitlement. As they say, “pride cometh before the fall”. There are signs of rebellion against him in his “backyard”. The Meru are saying “nyet”. VP Musyoka and UDF’s Musalia Mudavadi may come together. Mr Odinga remains a huge roadblock. This leaves Mr Kenyatta exposed, and isolated.

He may have peaked too early, and may only count on the Kikuyu vote. The trick in politics is to avoid dancing yourself lame before the main event. That’s why Mr Kenyatta may be daydreaming to imagine he’s already succeeded President Kibaki.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.