Big battle for Ruto

By Oscar Obonyo

Except for the timing of its execution and a few other details, the political pact between ODM’s Raila Odinga and URP’s William Ruto is virtually agreed.

However, Raila’s political competitors will not let Ruto leave without a fight.

The Prime Minister and the Eldoret North MP hope to pull off a big political surprise as Ruto trades up for a bigger payoff than he would get from other deals proposed by TNA’s Uhuru Kenyatta and others in the 2013 presidential  race. The ODM-URP deal is, however, at risk because the two leaders disagree over the timing of its actualisation.

 While the Orange party leader is pushing for a pre-contest engagement, the United Republican Party presidential hopeful favours a post-election pact.

Publicity about the talks ahead of agreement on this key issue forced Raila to claim ODM was not seeking any coalitions, while Ruto denied any meetings and joked he was “looking for Raila”.

This impasse holds out hope for Uhuru, who is already working on a pre-poll deal that includes Ruto in a key role.

What is more, a team from URP had already been put in place to negotiate with Uhuru’s The National Alliance.

Sources say Information minister Samuel Poghisio and Belgut MP Charles Keter lead the URP team, while Uhuru’s representatives include Gender minister Naomi Shabaan and Local Government assistant minister Lewis Nguyai.

Perhaps due to this ongoing engagement, Ruto called Uhuru ahead of his meeting with the PM reportedly asking him to keep an open mind.

Region’s engagement

The Standard On Sunday has also reliably established that Ruto has been working on an alliance with Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi. Details of this proposed deal are expected to be out in two weeks after a meeting by leaders from Western Province next Sunday to discuss the region’s engagement with the rest of the country.                

On Saturday, both camps confirmed that a team had been set up to work on details of the alliance, but none was willing to divulge any specifics about the talks between URP and the United Democratic Forum.

Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto, a staunch ally of the Eldoret North MP, confirmed the talks were at a critical stage and it is just matter of time before the details are announced. “It is true that we are talking with UDF,” says Ruto.

“I cannot go into the details of what has transpired because that is not my mandate. We have also been talking to other parties but nothing substantive has been agreed with them.

At the moment we want to see what comes out of our talks with UDF.” Raila wants Ruto firmly in his corner ahead of next year’s General Election.

But having adopted a new political baby, URP, and turned it into a solid outfit in an electrifying campaign over the last few months, Ruto is reportedly unwilling to let go. The MP also feels he has built a huge support base across the country, and wants to sustain the momentum to the presidential ballot.

“Ruto... insisted he would only offer (Raila) support after the March 4th elections in the event he (Ruto) failed to make it to the runoff,” a source privy to details of the latest meeting between the two told The Standard On Sunday.

According to allies, Ruto’s position is persuaded by two key factors – belief that he has a high chance in making it to the runoff himself and adapting a calculative wait-and-see strategy that will see him back the right horse for State House.

While the plan will see him carry nearly 100 per cent of his troops to the ballot and, in the process, sweep elective positions from his support bases, it has its demerits.

If the URP leader fails to secure either of the first two slots for a runoff, he will technically be locked out of contention for President or Deputy President.

The Deputy acts as Head of State, with all legal powers, in the absence of the holder and assumes the position of President in the event of death or ill health of the latter.

By postponing decision on the pact deal, Ruto will ideally be waiting to play the kingmaker by instead handing over his numbers to a preferred candidate.

The next highest position he could be offered is Leader of Majority Party, an equally powerful slot.

Similarly if Raila fails to secure Ruto’s backing ahead of the polls, he may have to fish elsewhere for a running mate – a factor that may be limiting in his endeavor to make it among the top two.

Alternatively, the first round results may turn out in a way that encourages Ruto to instead join another political grouping.

These, and many others, are the risks and delicate challenges that confront the Raila-Ruto pact.

In the meantime, the two have agreed to refrain from politically attacking each other in public and instead work towards bridging their differences on the deal.

Attempts by The Standard On Sunday to separately get confirmation of the same from the PM and Ruto proved futile as the two had heavy political engagements this weekend.

— Additional reporting by Kepher Otieno and Jacob Ng’etich.