Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Who Really Will Be The Beneficiaries Of Mudavadi Presidency



By Evans Aseto on 2012-09-03 07:05:14 (3 comments)





Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi, Kenyan politician, was born on September 21, 1960. Mudavadi is a member of parliament for Sabatia constituency. He first became an MP in 1989, when he was elected unopposed to take the Sabatia Constituency seat vacated by his deceased father Moses Mudavadi. In late 2002, he was appointed the Vice President of Kenya making history as the shortest serving Vice-President of Kenya under President Daniel arap Moi. Mudavadi was appointed in an unsuccessful attempt to bring the Luhya voting-block into KANU, which had been the party of government since independence. He was set to become Uhuru Kenyatta's vice president in case Uhuru won the 2002 presidential elections.

Mudavadi is currently serving as Deputy Prime Minister and is a presidential hopeful under the United Democratic Forum Party (UDF after decamping from the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). While ditching ODM, he had quit as the deputy party leader and Minister for local government. 

He left ODM after he felt that he was technically locked out of the presidential race through a party constitution clause that gave the party leader an automatic nomination to be the presidential candidate. Musalia however refused to resign as the Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Kenya citing that the office of the Deputy Prime Minister is a political office enshrined in the National Accord and whose purpose is to ensure stability for the country and therefore he would not resign. 

In 2007 when Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) split from the ODM-K, Mudavadi sought the nomination of the ODM as its candidate for the December 2007 presidential election. On September 1st of the same year the ODM elected Odinga as its presidential candidate; Mudavadi took second place with 391 votes, far short of Odinga's 2,656 votes. Along with the other candidates, Mudavadi expressed his support for Odinga eventually becoming Odinga’s running mate in the 2007 elections.

Although the 2007 presidential election was officially won by Kibaki, ODM disputed the results and claimed victory for Odinga. A violent crisis developed, which eventually led to the signing of a power-sharing agreement between Kibaki and Odinga leading to the formation of a coalition government bringing together The Party of National Unity and ODM.

Through his political career, Mudavadi has worked with several politicians who are currently in the limelight and some of whom are vying for the presidency. His relationship with the politicians across the political divide makes him more acceptable and the most probable compromise candidate in the political groupings.

Musalia is seen to be having high chances of clinching the presidential seat especially if he is supported by anti-Odinga forces such as Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta and Hon. William Ruto who are facing charges of crime against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC). Both of them control bigger chunks of their communities politically therefore delivering them to Mudavadi will not be a big deal. It is being rumored that it is the two with the help of president Kibaki and former president Daniel Moi that influenced Musalia to move out of ODM with the promise of helping him both politically and financially to win the presidency. All of them feel that they have a borne to chew with Odinga so blocking him from ascending to power is the only way out. This was very evident during the launch of UDF party at the Kenyatta International Conference Center (KICC) on May 2nd 2012 where each one of them at least sent a representative of their respective parties to the launch.

The question that lingers is; Will Musalia actually defeat his former friend turn foe? Another factor is that if at all Musalia will win he will have to fully consolidate the Western block so that he can have a smooth grip at the presidency. This means that at the end of it all he will have to work with Odinga or Odinga's loyalists. A similar scenario transpired in 2003 when Kibaki took over leadership. Many thought that it was Odinga and his friends who would call the shorts. It never happened, as soon as Kibaki ascended to power he recalled his long time friends, the likes of Muchuki who was not anywhere during the 2002 presidential campaigns, the late Njenga Karume who had defected to Uhuru's KANU among others. The same may apply in Musalia's case for him to confidently control both houses.

Looking at the political activities of Raila Odinga, it is very blunt that he has not personally attacked his former deputy and is believed to be more comfortable with Mudavadi as opposed to Uhuru or Ruto. 

As the commander in chief having a political constituency is very fundamental for a stable government and therefore Mudavadi will have to fight for the consolidation of the Western Kenya voting block which at the moment is clearly divided. He will also need to work closely with the Luo voting block. This is because the dynamics of the Kenyan political landscape is quite unpredictable knowing that he cannot bank on the support of the Kalenjin and Kikuyu voting blocks when he is going for his second term.

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