Sunday, September 16, 2012

Mudavadi should state clearly who his backers are



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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, September 15  2012 at  17:33
IN SUMMARY
  • The issue is this – is Mr Mudavadi’s presidential bid his own, or someone else’s? If the latter, then Mr Mudavadi would be a fraud.
  • He would be a puppet for a hidden puppeteer. This is the other issue – why would someone want him as a puppet?
  • If elected, would Mr Mudavadi be free of his patron, or would he be a figurehead? Would he be “ruling” for a cabal? Let’s “peel” Mr Mudavadi’s “mask”.
  • Is Mr Mudavadi President Kibaki’s project? Why do many Kenyans see him as a “Kikuyu project”? It seems that the Kikuyu elite around Mr Kibaki have convinced him that Mr Mudavadi would be the safest choice as successor.
That Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi is a gentleman can’t be gainsaid. He’s measured and moderate. When he speaks, he espouses an everyman’s common sense. He sounds tolerant.
But he’s a paradox. He was born with a silver spoon in his mouth. Everything appears to have been handed to him on a silver platter.
At the tender age of 29, he was a Cabinet minister in the Moi-Kanu one–party Cabinet. He’s never really been perceived as “his own man”.
He’s had three key patrons – former President Daniel arap Moi, incumbent President Mwai Kibaki, and PM Raila Odinga.
This year, he broke away from ODM and declared he wasn’t Mr Odinga’s sidekick. Has Mr Mudavadi come of political age?
Let me be clear – Mr Mudavadi is a very successful politician. That’s not my beef. Nor am I really concerned that he has a patron. Most politicians do. My question is whether Mr Mudavadi is ready to lead Kenya. Does he have the goods?
The issue is this – is Mr Mudavadi’s presidential bid his own, or someone else’s? If the latter, then Mr Mudavadi would be a fraud.
He would be a puppet for a hidden puppeteer. This is the other issue – why would someone want him as a puppet?
If elected, would Mr Mudavadi be free of his patron, or would he be a figurehead? Would he be “ruling” for a cabal? Let’s “peel” Mr Mudavadi’s “mask”.
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Is Mr Mudavadi President Kibaki’s project? Why do many Kenyans see him as a “Kikuyu project”? It seems that the Kikuyu elite around Mr Kibaki have convinced him that Mr Mudavadi would be the safest choice as successor.
State House mandarins believe that Mr Mudavadi would protect their interests and safeguard Mr Kibaki’s legacy. They think Mr Mudavadi is more malleable than any of the other leading contenders.
His right-of-centre philosophy is unlikely to rock the boat, or carry out any major reforms. His political pedigree is conformist and naturally protective of the status quo.
Let’s not forget that his dad – the late Moses Budamba Mudavadi – helped construct the status quo. He was President Moi’s man among the Luhya.
State House strategists arrived at Mr Mudavadi through a process of elimination. They’ve decided that Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta isn’t a viable candidate.
They’ve concluded that his ethnicity and woes at the International Criminal Court can’t be overcome. Mr Kibaki now believes that Mr Kenyatta is a liability. Don’t get me wrong.
The elite around Mr Kibaki would have loved nothing more than to have Jomo’s son succeed him. But they are pragmatists.
They know his candidacy won’t fly and that, even if it does, the ICC would put Kenya in the pariah column.
They had three choices – PM Raila Odinga, VP Kalonzo Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi. Of the three, Mr Mudavadi seems the most pliable and suggestible.
There are several unarguable pointers to Mr Mudavadi as Mr Kibaki’s choice. First, the strangely named United Democratic Forum Party, or UDF, was a creation of State House operatives.
It was their “escape hatch” – a vehicle that would allow them to wield influence beyond the Kibaki presidency.
They handed UDF to Mr Mudavadi – you guessed it – on a “silver platter”. This means Mr Mudavadi’s UDF will benefit from the deep pockets of the Kibaki confidantes.
Are they playing Russian roulette? May be, although I think their choice is very plausible. That’s because the next occupant of State House will most likely not be a Kikuyu. That’s why Mr Mudavadi may laugh all the way to the House on the Hill.
The second signal that Mr Kibaki has anointed Mr Mudavadi is the forays that the latter is making in central Kenya.
Mr Mudavadi is acting as though he has the blessing of State House as he canvasses the region for votes. Mr Kenyatta and his strategists have left no doubt of their displeasure with Mr Mudavadi’s encroachment on “his turf”.
They’ve complained loudly, but to no effect. Think about it. Mr Mudavadi badly needs the central Kenya vote if he’s to bag the big prize.
That’s because his hold on the Luhya vote is wobbly. Perhaps his community would fully come on board if he can prove he’s truly Mr Kibaki’s project. But can State House dare back him openly?
The last signal Mr Kibaki has sent that Mr Mudavadi is the “chosen one” is innocuous, but poignant. Mr Kibaki often sends Mr Mudavadi to high profile events to represent him.
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One such event was the funeral of former Butere legislator Martin Shikuku. Consider this – Mr Mudavadi isn’t a PNU Deputy Prime Minister. He holds that post courtesy of ODM.
As a DPM, it’s the Prime Minister for whom he should deputise, not the President. It’s the VP who should deputise for the President.
But by delegating his public speeches to Mr Mudavadi, Mr Kibaki is subtly telling the country that Mr Mudavadi is “his understudy”. The message couldn’t be clearer. Mr Kibaki has made his choice.
I want to be clear that just because Mr Mudavadi has patrons doesn’t mean that he’s a fraud. The key is whether he’s his own man.
Kenyans shouldn’t elect to the presidency someone who’s a puppet, or a front for hidden interests, and who doesn’t exercise “independent agency”.
In that case, they might as well put a Martian in the State House. Mr Mudavadi should know that Kenyans are good at connecting the dots.
That’s why he must come out now and say who – exactly – his backers are. Dishonesty won’t do – it can only hurt him.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at SUNY Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.

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