A supporter of KANU candidate for Ndhiwa by-election carry a cockerel which is the party's symbol during a campaign rally at Gaena grounds on Thursday. Photo/JACOB OWITI
By DANIEL OTIENO danotieno@ke.nationmedia.com AND MAURICE KALUOCH mrcaluoch@gmail.com
Posted Friday, September 14 2012 at 23:30
Posted Friday, September 14 2012 at 23:30
IN SUMMARY
- Politicians who failed to win party ticket have thrown their weight behind Kanu candidate
The Ndhiwa by-election, whichever way it goes, will be a litmus test for the Orange Democratic Movement.
The fate of the ultimate winner lies in the hands of the voters, who will cast their ballots in the 140 polling stations in the expansive constituency on Monday.
Three parties — ODM, The National Alliance (TNA) and Kanu — are in the race.
Although, on paper, the Orange party should prepare to uncork the champagne due to a strong following in the constituency, a chaotic nomination process and the resulting fallout have clouded the campaigns.
The by-election has once again brought into focus the ability of political parties to organise free and fair nominations and how they handle complaints from the losers.
Some of the politicians who lost in the ODM primaries have thrown their weight behind Kanu candidate Tom Otieno Onyango. (READ: Cracks emerge in ODM campaign as losers back Kanu)
Eleven out of the 23 nomination losers snubbed a truce meeting called by ODM leader Raila Odinga late last month and dismissed it as “too little too late in the face of rebellion”.
Mr Jeremiah Owiti, one of the losers, said that Mr Odinga, who is also the Prime Minister, had neglected what is supposed to be the bedrock of his support and is now in a fire-fighting mode.
Mr Owiti said: “I did not attend the PM’s meeting because it adds no value to me and to the party. The PM thinks that the Luo Nyanza vote is his for keeps. But things are changing and the region could post a shocking election outcome.”
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Mr Owiti further said the Ndhiwa nomination fallout was just a tip of the iceberg regarding the bigger challenges ODM is facing in the region.
Party secretary-general Anyang’ Nyong’o threatened to expel those who were campaigning for the Kanu candidate and once again, they defied him and told him to make good his threat.
While Mr Onyango and TNA’s Rosemary Rumo say the discontent in ODM has given them a new lease of life, ODM’s candidate Agustino Neto maintains that the election was done and dusted at the party primaries.
The contest was spiced up with the presence of TNA leader Uhuru Kenyatta, who held an intensive campaign in the constituency on Tuesday, declaring that he was ready to work with the PM should he (Mr Odinga) win the elections.
Kanu, on the other hand, has been seeking to endear itself to the voters by promising that a vote for its candidate could open doors to a working relationship with ODM in a pre-election pact ahead of next year’s presidential contest.
On Thursday, Kanu bigwigs Gideon Moi and Nick Salat landed in the constituency in a helicopter for a series of rallies.
Campaign meetings
Mr Odinga, together with a revived ODM Reloaded team, is expected to hold a series of campaign meetings on Saturday.
Mr Neto said the PM’s presence was not a sign of panic but an appreciation of the people of Ndhiwa for their support in the past.
“I told the PM that his coming is just meant to put the icing on the cake, the election is done. He is not coming to campaign, he is coming to thank the voters … there is nothing to worry about,’’ said Mr Neto.
Party strengths, clan factors and individual personalities will play a big role in the election.
According to University of Nairobi lecturer Collins Odote, that Kanu and TNA can attract a following and organise high-powered campaigns is an indication that a lot has changed.
“Ordinarily, the ODM nomination losers would have defected to another party and launched their bid but by supporting a Kanu candidate this is a sign of political maturity,” said Dr Odote.
The same sentiments were expressed by Mr Onyango of Kanu.
“We are in political parties because it’s a requirement for one to contest an election. But when all is said and done, it’s the ideals that someone stands for and how he relates with the electorate that will carry the day,” said Mr Onyango.
ODM is making a strong case that a loss in Ndhiwa or a good showing in the constituency by TNA and Kanu would be taken as a vote of no-confidence in the PM’s presidential bid.
Clannism has never been a major determinant in past elections but it could be this time round.
Although Mr Orwa Ojodeh was from the minority Kwabwai clan, he trounced candidates from the populous Kabuoch and Kanyamwa clans in four consecutive elections.
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ODM’s Neto Oyugi comes from the Kabuoch clan, which has about 18,000 out of the 48,641 registered voters. Kanyamwa has about 16,000, Kanyikela 5,000, Kanyadoto 4,200 and Kwabawai 4,500.
Mrs Rumo (TNA) comes from the Kanyamwa clan while Mr Onyango (Kanu) is from Kanyikela.
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