Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Mudavadi entry spices Kenya's poll


  Mudavadi entry spices Kenya's poll
Mudavadi entry spices Kenya's poll
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Updated 5 hrs 10 mins ago
Three things have happened around Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi over the last two months. He has walked out of Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s shadow, a man he deputised in Cabinet and Orange Democratic Movement, and he is now battling his way to State House.
Secondly, his name has featured as a possible ‘project’ of President Kibaki’s State House, alongside that of Eldoret North MP William Ruto. President Kibaki on Tuesday denounced the ‘project’ claim by Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo.
Thirdly, Mudavadi’s candidature has in one way or another, affected the campaigns for State House by six other presidential contenders: Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, Raila, Ruto, and Jirongo.
Certainly, the image of Mudavadi either as a moderate in the political arena, and for Uhuru and Ruto, a possible ‘compromise’ candidate to back should The Hague make it hard for them to run, is different from the laid-back Musalia of the pre-May 2012 period who seemed forever loyal and subservient to Raila.
Today, just about two months after he left the Orange Democratic Movement, and having resigned as Local Government minister while choosing to cling to DPM’s office, Mudavadi is not only being considered a serious contender, but the other aspirants are grappling with the consequences of his entry, amid claims he is a Kibaki ‘project’.
All major players in the race, including President Kibaki whose succession is the bone of contention, are embroiled in the controversy generated by Mudavadi’s entry into the race on a United Democratic Forum (UDF) ticket. UDF has been a subject of speculation over alleged connection to the incumbent holders of State power, with reports that among its founders are operatives in President Kibaki’s State House.
On Tuesday, State House in an uncharacteristic harsh rebuttal, told off Jirongo over allegations that the State had sponsored some political parties and presidential aspirants as ‘projects’ to influence the election of the fourth president.
The rebuttal, crafted in a language unusual for State House, underlined the ripples Mudavadi’s ambition is causing. Long considered a lightweight, Mudavadi’s candidature appears to affect other presidential hopefuls: They either want to court him, crush, or use him.

Apart from Raila, whom all the others are keen on stopping, the Sabatia MP could easily have won the distinction that he is either to be wooed or stopped.
The departure of Mudavadi is a blow to the ODM Party Leader’s campaign for president, particularly because Raila appeared to hold the ground in Western.
The circumstances of Mudavadi’s acrimonious exit from ODM –protesting at alleged schemes by Raila’s allies to deny him a fair shot at party presidential nominations – do not help the PM’s cause either.
exited PM’s opponents
This is because it fits into the narrative that the PM is intolerant to criticism, and does not brook competition.  Rivals have exploited this to portray the Langata MP as authoritarian. That Raila had a soft spot for Mudavadi was evident in that he had named him DPM and deputy party leader.
This infuriated Eldoret North MP, William Ruto, who felt he deserved the posts on account of ODM’s overwhelming support in Rift Valley. A second position of deputy party leader had to be created for Ruto to mollify him, but he eventually denounced the party.
Raila’s falling out with his deputy excited the Premier’s opponents, as it appeared to weaken ODM. Raila allies, however, argue the exits gave the PM the opportunity to pick new blood to work with.
But celebrations appear to be short-lived because Mudavadi’s presidential candidature now seems as much a problem to the G7 Alliance leaders as he was to Raila.
Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa was the first to show unease with the idea of Mudavadi orbiting towards the alliance he had joined.
Wamalwa was a sensation in Western, with his declaration to run for high office until Mudavadi rained on his parade. Association with other G7 leaders – Kalonzo, Uhuru, and Ruto – shored up Saboti MP’s popularity.
So sensational was his march that Cabinet Minister Soita Shitanda and Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale wooed Wamalwa to New Ford- Kenya after tussling with Trade Minister Moses Wetangula for Ford-Kenya’s leadership.
That Shitanda and Khalwale have since abandoned Wamalwa for Mudavadi explains how the latter has upset the equation in Western.
Instructively, at the weekend Wamalwa joined Jirongo, who has fought Mudavadi throughout his political life, for a joint rally at which they attacked Mudavadi, and Ruto as “State House projects”.
Wamalwa mocked Mudavadi’s record of seniority and experience, alleging it was tainted with the Goldenberg scandal. A day later, Mudavadi said it was laughable that one would take himself as a serious presidential aspirant yet he had been appointed minister “just the other day”.
While Wamalwa’s high profile role at the launch of Uhuru’s The National Alliance, gave the impression he could be the deputy PM’s running mate, Mudavadi’s march may yet spring up other surprises.
Wamalwa is now left alone in New Ford-Kenya after all his allies left for Mudavadi’s UDF, and that has been a source of discomfort for the Saboti MP. For Uhuru, facing prospects of a lengthy trial at The Hague, it has been suggested that he is under pressure in central Kenya to quit in favour of Mudavadi seen as the best bet to stop Raila from the top seat.
Lately, the Uhuru camp has been forced to fight off suggestions that he could opt to shelve his ambition to become Mudavadi’s running mate.
Uhuru’s spokesman Munyori Buku has explained Uhuru’s remark at the burial of the late Internal Security George Saitoti to the effect he is ready to defer his ambition should not be misconstrued he would give up his bid. Rather, Buku said, Uhuru meant he would back whoever won after joint nominations.
Reconciliation deal
The perceived talks involving the two deputy Prime Ministers has reportedly not gone down well with Ruto.
At one point Belgut MP Charles Keter responded, “They, too, could negotiate with others,” when confronted with reports of deal making between Uhuru and Mudavadi.
Speculation has it Mudavadi could have come between Uhuru and Ruto, hence the unease with him. The persistent unconfirmed reports of Ruto and Raila holding talks have only fueled the perception the Eldoret North MP could be re-assessing his options, particularly now that the PM’s so-called blue-eyed boy has left his kraal.
Ruto has, however, dismissed any talk of him negotiating with Raila.
On the other hand, although Kalonzo had somewhat distanced himself from the G7 Alliance after apparent cold relations developed between him, and Uhuru and Ruto, Mudavadi’s entry poses competition in the search for a compromise candidate, a slot he occupied in the secret alternative plans for several parties.

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