Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Musalia should not undermine his repute by becoming a tribal chieftain



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By MACHARIA GAITHO
Posted  Monday, April 16  2012 at  18:58
Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi signalled his intention to quit ODM ever since he went on the offensive in his challenge to Prime Minister Raila Odinga for the party’s presidential nomination.
What initially seemed like a routine token challenge has snowballed into a full-throttle confrontation that has badly split the party and left Mr Odinga badly bruised and exposed.
It is apparent that Mr Mudavadi‘s challenge was part of an exit strategy aimed at providing him with the excuse to walk out in a huff once it became clear that dislodging Mr Odinga in a free and fair nomination would be next to impossible.
Mr Odinga’s regular minions, cheerleaders and sycophants did their best to provide Mr Mudavadi the perfect excuse to walk out. They were generous with injudicious comments suggesting that the party belonged to Mr Odinga.
The question now is not if, but when, Mr Mudavadi will storm out of ODM and whence his destination.
He has kept his options very close to his chest. As he leaves ODM to chart out his own political destiny, however, he seems to be committing the classic mistake of most aspirants to national leadership in Kenya – reducing himself into an ethnic leader.
He has spent much of the last few days, continuing into the rest of this week, working out his strategies within an almost exclusive Luhya cabal.
He is expected to announce his decision on the choice of party at a public rally in his home ‘‘capital’’, Kakamega, at the end of the week.
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If Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto sponsored respective Gema and Kamatusa support bashes in Limuru and Eldoret, Mr Mudavadi seems intent on similarly sponsoring his own ‘‘Western Union’’ show of force.
If that is the intention, then Mr Mudavadi succeeds only in undermining his own credentials to national leadership.
He may have succeeded quite spectacularly in stripping Mr Odinga of a hard-earned national profile and leaving the putative presidential election front-runner surrounded by Luo kinsmen in the Jakoyo Midiwos of this world.
Mr Mudavadi, however, does himself no favours by surrounding himself with politicians who succeed only in projecting him as a candidate for president of Luhyaland.
It is natural in Kenya, of course, that a candidate for national leadership must first have a strong base, that more often than not will be ethnic or regional.
President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga both made little headway in the quest for national leadership until they tore off the ethnic shackles and built alliances that transcended the tribe.
Once in power, however, President Kibaki retreated into his Kikuyu redoubt with associations that badly damaged his nationalist credentials.
Mr Odinga has had to work very hard to break away from the shackles of a Luo Prince, but has suffered badly since the fallout of ODM left him primarily with his own tribesmen purporting to speak for him.
Then we have Mr Odinga’s main rivals in the Kibaki Succession race, the so-called G7 – more G2, really – Alliance headed by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto under the Gema and Kamatusa banners.
Bound to face trial at the International Criminal Court over the post-election violence, the two might have had the rationale to seek shelter in their respective ethnic laagers.
Mr Mudavadi doesn’t have similar problems and has no excuse to project himself as first and foremost an ethnic candidate. That is why New Ford Kenya might not be that attractive a suitor.
Perhaps, however, Mr Mudavadi might have to pay attention to expected approaches from his old mentor, former President Moi, who will be looking to fill a deep void in Kanu.
Mr Kenyatta has kicked his former puppeteer in the teeth by abandoning the ‘Mama na Baba’ party.
The retired president’s son, Gideon, has assumed temporary leadership of Kanu, but is hardly the commanding national figure the party needs to try and reclaim power.
I can bet Mr Mudavadi’s phone is ringing off the hook right now, and his credentials will be tested by how firmly he can resist Mr Moi’s entreaties.
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mgaitho@ke.nationmedia.com

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