Raila fights for political life as rivals up stakes

By STANDARD REPORTER

Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s third attempt to be elected President seems set to be his most difficult.

He faces strong, if disjointed, opposition from several quarters at a time the bar for entering State House has been raised significantly.

The blistering rhetoric coming from his main rivals threatens to drown out his main campaign message at a time he must put his house in order.

His supporters say the fear of populist reforms under a Raila presidency has prompted "panicky rivals with dodgy pasts" to gang up to block the PM’s path to State House. Budalang’i MP Ababu Namwamba claims some of the individuals opposed to a Raila regime have wronged Kenyans in some way and fear they would be called upon to "pay their debts" should ODM come to power under him.

"Raila has a history of reforms that shows his presidency would be very transformative," the ODM Parliamentary Group secretary says. "To block him, his rivals paint him as someone who will bring the house down." Critics, however, charge Raila’s message of change is a faÁade to conceal his pursuit of power. They insist their push for State House has nothing to do with locking out anyone.

Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto, who is allied to Eldoret North MP William Ruto, says the populist positions taken by the PM on reform shouldn’t be mistaken for public interest.

"Raila is on the side of himself," Ruto says. "He only uses populist remarks that he really doesn’t mean to get cheap political mileage."

No holds barred: PM's allies say fear of reformist leadership under Raila behind the attacks on ODM leader as rivals find new ways to close gap with front-runner [Photo: File/Standard]

While he remains the nation’s first choice to succeed President Kibaki, Raila has seen the gap between him and his closest rivals shrink over the last year or so.

Just three months ago, an Ipsos-Synovate poll projected that the 2012 race would be decided in the second round, increasing the threat posed by an alliance of rivals.

This is the thinking behind this week’s plans to bring structure to the G7 alliance. The prospect of a run-off has also emboldened other presidential hopefuls who believe they can be kingmakers after the first round.

With the PM appearing to be at his most vulnerable in months, his rivals are pressing the advantage with a series of prayer-meetings-cum-rallies across the nation. The confirmation of ICC charges against Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto has given Raila’s rivals a handy propaganda stick. At various G7 meetings, some leaders have suggested the PM had a hand in ensuring the two were held responsible for crimes against humanity committed after the 2007 election.

On Wednesday, Raila had a heated confrontation with Ruto on the matter. The PM protested that the rallies had become platforms to whip up rhetoric against him, yet it was Uhuru and Ruto who had contributed to The Hague court’s intervention by rejecting a local special tribunal.

Ruto argued that ODM Secretary General Anyang’ Nyong’o wrote to the UN Security Council objecting to the Government’s petition for a deferral of the ICC cases.

"That letter is a matter of public record. Was that letter issued with the permission of the Prime Minister?" Ruto posed. He was referring to an infamous 16-point letter that ODM later disowned.

The PM hopes to win over the country with his pledge of reform. He is presenting himself as the right man to implement the Constitution, saying this is not a job for those who either opposed the new law or only supported it half-heartedly during the 2010 Referendum. This line of attack is aimed at two of his three key rivals, Ruto and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

Roads Minister Franklin Bett, a Raila ally, says the PM’s opponents in the 2012 race are afraid of his reform credentials.

"Kenyans want a President who will implement the Constitution," Bett says. "They see that person in Raila. That explains the overdrive by the ‘Reds’ and ‘Watermelons’ to dent his credibility."

To head off his strongest rival, Uhuru, Raila is reaching out to youth and business leaders in Central Kenya. In a tour planned for April, the PM intends to play up his ties to some of the region’s reform-minded politicians.

Limit impact

The move is also meant to limit the impact of other Central Kenya hopefuls like Narc-Kenya chair Martha Karua and Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, who can rally the region’s vote and deny Raila key counties should Uhuru not run.

ODM’s recent alliance with Ford-Kenya is an attempt to reach out to Western Kenya, parts of which may well fall behind New Ford Kenya and the G7, whose Eugene Wamalwa, MP for Saboti, is being touted as the region’s rising star. This is a particularly tricky issue because ODM risks alienating the region if it mishandles Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi’s plea for the party’s blessing.

A group of ODM leaders is planning to meet with both Raila and Mudavadi over the question of how the party will pick its presidential candidate. They plan to prevail on Mudavadi to step down in favour of Raila to avoid creating a rift in the party.

Heritage Minister William ole Ntimama has allegedly proposed securing Mudavadi’s concession through an MoU that limits Raila to a one-term presidency after which he will back the Sabatia MP for the presidency in 2017.

Raila’s critics say all this manouvering will end in tears for Mudavadi. They insist the PM’s past actions reveal he is a dishonest politician determined to "steamroll" anyone standing in his path to personal glory.

Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale says the ‘Kibaki Tosha’ declaration Raila made in 2007 broke a pact he had struck days earlier with Ford People’s Simeon Nyachae. This, Khalwale says, is not Raila’s only betrayal.

"Upon Jaramogi’s death in 1994, Raila attempted to wrestle the chairmanship of Ford Kenya from Kijana Wamalwa, who had stood by his father," Khalwale recalls. "He abandoned Wamalwa after a bitter fight."

Raila then formed NDP, which entered into co-operation with Kanu, "a once cohesive party that he ripped apart after then President Moi sidelined him for Uhuru in 2002."

Khalwale says Raila also used unorthodox means in 2007 to elbow out Kalonzo Musyoka, his main challenger for the ODM-Kenya presidential nomination ticket. His informal leadership grouping with those leaders he took with him, the ODM ‘Pentagon’, has since collapsed.

Looking at the onslaught facing Raila, Khalwale says he is only receiving what he has dished out before.

"He is being paid in the same coin," he says. "Raila only works for himself. It can’t be that he is more sinned against than sinning. He is very cunning and behaves like the proverbial hare."