FILE | NATION Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula with party supporters in Kakamega. Mr Wetang’ula, who was accompanied by Kimilili MP Eseli Simiyu and Bumula MP Bifwoli Wakoli disclosed that the party is ready to work with ODM.
By ERICK NGOBILO engobilo@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Friday, February 17 2012 at 22:30
Posted Friday, February 17 2012 at 22:30
IN SUMMARY
- Decision to ditch PNU Alliance for Orange movement will revive waning support for party in region
Ford Kenya’s decision to ditch the PNU Alliance for the Orange Democratic Movement is being seen as an attempt to shore up its dwindling support.
The move could also help ODM consolidate its grip on the Western vote. (READ: Ford-K to mull over alliance with ODM)
Once the dominant player in the region, Ford-K, the party of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga and Michael Wamalwa has, over the years, been limited to pockets of Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties.
Today, even this enclave is not guaranteed following a disputed election last year that saw former chairman Musikari Kombo and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa quit for the splinter New Ford Kenya. (READ: Ford-K vows to crack the whip on ‘rebels’)
The elections installed Foreign Affairs minister Moses Wetang’ula as chairman. Since then, the party has lost two civic by-elections in Kimilili and Webuye to Wamalwa’s New Ford-K.
Barely scrapped through
In the 2007 elections, Ford-K allied candidates lost in Kanduyi and Webuye constituencies. In Sirisia, Mr Wetang’ula barely scrapped through in a gruelling battle with ODM’s John Waluke.
Thus, last weekend’s rally in Bungoma town at which the new alliance with Raila Odinga’s party was announced did not come as a surprise to many supporters and observers.
Dr Martin Mulwale, a Maseno University lecturer, says the alliance will see Ford-K improve its fortunes, especially if ODM does not field candidates against it.
“Ford Kenya wants to cling to ODM for its survival in the midst of strong competition from New Ford Kenya,” he says.
Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University agrees.
“The move is a good strategy for Ford-K. It is associating with a party which is formidable in the region … which already commands majority following,’’ he says
Ford-K, he says, may also be positioning itself to reap from a strong wave of support for ODM should Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi emerge as the Orange party’s presidential nominee.
“I think Mudavadi’s chances of getting the ODM ticket are high and this has really excited Western Kenya,’’ Prof Kabaji says, adding that the competition between Mr Mudavadi and Mr Odinga favours the alliance.
Mr Wetang’ula and Ford-K will benefit irrespective of who between Mr Odinga and Mr Mudavadi is the candidate.
So what is in this alliance for Mr Odinga and ODM?
It will help the Orange party to repulse an onslaught in Western by the G7 Alliance through New Ford-K and consolidate its support base in the region. (READ: New Ford-K launches grassroots drive to recruit new members)
But this will only happen if there is no fallout in ODM arising from the Mudavadi-Odinga fight for the party’s presidential ticket.
“The two and their supporters must know that irrespective of who wins the contest, ODM is their only home. If one of them bolts, then it becomes a different ball game,’’ Prof Kabaji says.
As a senior politician in Bungoma, Mr Wetang’ula will emerge as Mr Odinga’s pointman in the county.
His money and organisational ability may be an asset for Mr Odinga, especially during the ODM presidential nomination.
Has lost appeal
But others disagree, saying that Mr Odinga already has a majority of the delegates in Bungoma.
Indeed, of the county’s six sub-branches, it is only in Kimilili where a Mudavadi team, led by Mr John Chikati, was elected.Many of those elected in the ODM grassroots elections, including county chairman Mr John Waluke, are Mr Odinga’s supporters.
Law Society of Kenya Bungoma chapter chairman John Makali says although Mr Wetang’ula may end up as Mr Odinga’s pointman in Bungoma, it may not translate into any additional popular support for ODM.
“Ford Kenya has lost appeal on the ground and Mr Wetang’ula lacks the ability to galvanise the county vote,’’ says Mr Makali.
Ford Kenya, he says, is entering the alliance hoping to be part of the next government.
Although the party’s leaders are insisting that they will enter the alliance on their own terms, it is obvious that theirs is the junior partner and that it is ODM which will be in a position to dictate the terms of the link up.
It is likely, therefore, that Wetang’ula will give up his presidential ambitions in favour of the ODM candidate and opt to go for a lesser seat like that of senator.
There are those who also point out that Mr Wetang’ula is in a weak bargaining position because he is indebted to Mr Odinga and ODM over the Tokyo embassy scandal. It is said Mr Odinga played a crucial role in bringing him back to the Cabinet after he stepped aside over the scandal.
Bumula MP Bifwoli Wakoli alluded to this when he said at the rally: “They (ODM) have been our friends.
‘‘They have supported us when we needed their support most when our party leader was being fought over alleged corruption.”
And ODM’s Parliamentary Group secretary Ababu Namwamba added:
“Wetang’ula is clean. All that you saw was just politics, there was no evidence linking him to corruption and that is why we pushed for his reinstatement.’’
Despite his comeback, the Tokyo scandal is an unfinished business in Parliament and the Ford-K leader could still face censure. Consequently, support from ODM is crucial.
Mr Namwamba told the rally that the Orange party is ready to support Mr Wetang’ula if a censure motion is brought against him in Parliament.
He claimed MPs allied to the G7 Alliance were behind Mr Wetang’ula’s tribulations because they wanted his position to go their ally, Mr Wamalwa.
This was seen as a dig at Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, who is seen as the man behind Mr Wamalwa. Indeed, Mr Wamalwa has been touted as the compromise candidate in case Mr Kenyatta and his Eldoret North counterpart William Ruto are knocked out of the race because of the ICC cases.Ford-K secretary general Eseli Simiyu criticised the G7 saying, “they have been fighting us and dividing our leaders.”
However, this is highly unlikely as the two are determined to stay in the race.
That leaves Mr Wamalwa with two options; to be running mate in the G7 or contest on a New Ford-K ticket.
Will he have any influence in the region if this is the case?
Playing second fiddle
Currently, Mr Wamalwa’s party has eclipsed Ford-K in Bungoma, if the results of the recent by-elections are anything to go by.
But Mr Makali says Mr Wamalwa’s influence may fade once it becomes apparent that he is playing second fiddle to Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.
“I don’t see Wamalwa galvanising the vote in Bungoma county unless he goes all the way to the ballot, which I don’t see happening,” says Mr Makali.
Mr Wamalwa’s other allies in New Ford-K, including Housing minister Soita Shitanda and Ikolomani MP Bonni Khalwale have already indicated that they will support Mr Mudavadi if he is the ODM candidate.
Supporters of both ODM and Ford Kenya are upbeat about the alliance.
Supporters of both ODM and Ford Kenya are upbeat about the alliance.
For them it does not matter who is the ODM candidate. But if it is Mr Mudavadi, so much the better.
Bungoma advocate Amos Makokha says the alliance could unite the Western region under one political camp. Currently, it is shared by ODM, New Ford Kenya, Ford Kenya and United Republican Party whose pointman is Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo.
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