File | NATION Former president Moi gestures during President Kibaki’s inauguration on December 31, 2002. If he had selected a successor, Mr Kibaki would have gone down the slippery slope Mr Moi did when he attempted to impose Mr Uhuru Kenyatta on voters.
By KIPCHUMBA SOME ksome@ke.nationmedia.co.ke
Posted Saturday, August 13 2011 at 22:00
Posted Saturday, August 13 2011 at 22:00
IN SUMMARY
- Critics believe President wants to be remembered for the new Constitution rather than risk it all by endorsing a ‘project’
Given its political implications, President Kibaki’s repeated statement recently that he would not be supporting any of the candidates seeking to succeed him would normally have generated intense media analysis and frantic political strategy sessions.
But it did not.
Maybe it is because of the way the message was delivered – in that manner unique to the President that makes some of his serious statements sound light. But that does not mean the full import of what he meant has been lost on the dozen or more candidates vying for the presidency.
Even retiring presidents wield a lot of clout, extensive connections and goodwill that would naturally aid the cause of whoever they support.
Working with him
Those jostling to succeed the President and who are currently working with him include Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Internal Security minister George Saitoti.
Although they have not been overt in seeking his approval, it is not lost on keen observers that some aspects of the Kibaki presidency would help to propel their campaigns to new heights.
For instance, it was obvious when the President stepped out last year and firmly supported the new Constitution that there was a quiet battle to share in the glory of the expected success.
And, at the burial of the former head of African Independent Pentecostal Church of Africa, Dr Samson Gaitho, when some speakers tackled succession politics, President Kibaki did not have kind words for them. He made it clear that he would not name a preferred successor.
Why has President Kibaki decided to become a spectator of his succession? And, more importantly, how does his decision change the 2012 game plan?
Most political observers say they are not surprised by his declaration.
“It is his style of doing things,” says Prof Macharia Munene, a lecturer at the United States International University. “He has declined to endorse even his close associates seeking parliamentary seats.”
The exact date of President Kibaki’s retirement is uncertain at this moment. It is either August 2012 or early 2013, depending on the constitutional interpretation that prevails on when the new elections should be held.
What is certain is that President Kibaki is in the sunset days of a long political career spanning nearly five decades, almost the entire period of Kenya’s independence.
Historians have begun assessing the legacy of the President’s political career, with obvious emphasis being given to his tumultuous years as Kenya’s Commander in Chief. And like with political leaders across the globe, opinion on his legacy is divided.
Polar opposite
President Kibaki is almost the polar opposite of his predecessor, Mr Daniel arap Moi. For instance, where Mr Moi was an avid traveller by road, Mr Kibaki would rather hop on to a helicopter to, say Kakamega, to officiate at a function.
Whereas Mr Moi was a hands-on person who had the final say on almost every aspect of government, Mr Kibaki is a hands-off man whose style of managing things has been termed laissez faire. Where one excelled in one area, the other failed miserably.
Mr Moi was a miserable economist. Under his 24-year watch, economic systems crumbled, plunging more than half the Kenyan population into abject poverty. But it is here that President Kibaki has excelled. Under his watch, the economy has rebounded impressively.
But politics was not Mr Kibaki’s forte as it was Mr Moi’s. It is often said that the President abandoned politics on that sunny afternoon of December 31, 2002 when he was inaugurated as Kenya’s third president before a sea of joyous supporters at Uhuru Park.
It was under his watch that the country’s politics became toxic and ethnic tensions heightened. Certain phrases from the Kenyatta presidency that became synonymous with dark political machinations of that era such as “kitchen Cabinet” and “mafia” returned to conversations in bars and sitting rooms across the country.
As he focused his efforts on turning around the moribund economy, his so-called “kitchen Cabinet” ran the political side of things – with disastrous consequences. And that, some of his close supporters say, remains the single biggest mistake of his presidency.
“Politics in Kenya is everything,” Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi told this writer in a candid interview soon after the promulgation of the new Constitution last year. “The economy can grow by double digits but if the politics is not good, nothing is good. We realised that late in the day,” he added.
In failing to manage the local politics, he inadvertently deepened the divisions in Kenya’s social fabric. It is said that it is during his first term that tribalism in public service and political intolerance hit new heights. The direct result was the 2008 post-election violence that left more than 1,300 dead.
Well, the President’s decision to leave his potential successors to their own devices can be read as an attempt to right the many political wrongs he has been accused of committing.
Ashes and blood
From the ashes and blood of the post-election violence came the sweeping reforms that have transformed Kenya’s political apparatus. The highlight of it all is undoubtedly the passing of the new Constitution last August.
“The new Constitution, without a doubt, is the high point of his last term and one of the major highlights of his career,” says Kipchumba Murkomen, a political observer and law lecturer at Moi University. “And I think he would wish to retire on that high rather than immerse himself in the intricacies of another campaign.”
Critics have few positive things to say about Mr Moi’s political legacy, often because it is forgotten that he oversaw one of the most peaceful and transparent elections the country has ever held in 2002. He even went ahead and made what is still considered history in Africa – a ruling party peacefully conceding power to the opposition.
But Mr Moi’s last days are hardly remembered for this. Rather it is his disastrous attempt to impose his chosen successor Uhuru Kenyatta that sticks. Therefore, by immersing himself in the political intricacies of his successor, President Kibaki would have set himself up for a similar fate in case his “project” fails.
“He is determined to end his career differently,” says Mr David Murathe, a close adviser of Mr Kenyatta.
In the wider perspective, the President’s decision is a plus for Kenya’s democracy. Endorsements by sitting presidents have no place in established democracies.
By not endorsing anyone, President Kibaki has left all the candidates hoping to succeed him on an equal footing.
“Everyone will have to work hard to convince voters; they will not be riding on the back of a president’s endorsement. Kenyans will choose their next leader without influence,” says Prof Munene.
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