Sunday, August 14, 2011

VP quest sends curious signals


By OSCAR OBONYO

Even though regarded as President Kibaki's loyal principal assistant, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is battling it out with others to succeed his boss. This reality is odd and begs a host of questions.
Has the President lost faith in his Number Two, but for his guarded nature won’t publicly disown him in the same way President Moi did to George Saitoti in 2002?
Or is the VP tottering alone because Kibaki has someone else in mind? Alternatively, is there another secret pact between Kibaki and Kalonzo, like the alleged pre-election pact between the pair before the 2007 General Election?
Kalonzo is not only Kibaki’s deputy but also credited for stabilising the President’s PNU party after it failed to get the necessary numbers in Parliament to contain the dominant rival, ODM.
But with Kibaki serving his second and final term as President, his deputy is being challenged to participate in a primary with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, among others.
The primaries’ proposal is tricky affair for the VP, considering the ethnic voting patterns. Besides Uhuru, the VP is also in with Eldoret North MP William Ruto, from the populous Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities.
"I fear these schemes are aimed at isolating the VP. The questions we need to ask ourselves are – why would those around the President want to undermine his deputy and are Kenyans truly ready for another central Kenya politician to succeed Kibaki?" reacts Oscar Plato Okwaro of Quadz Consulting. Indeed, the tale of an heir apparent jostling for the top position with politicians in his crafted alliance, some of who are backbenchers, and first-term MPs, sends rather curious signals.
The President himself has been sending mixed signals. His decision not to rout for any particular politician to succeed him, for instance, has been interpreted variously.
Preferred candidate
Considering that the President’s real words are that he "shall not name" his preferred successor, it means Kibaki actually has somebody in mind, save that he does not wish to shout about it.
According to Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations at United States International University, Nairobi, this tendency is quite characteristic of the President.
"Throughout his political career spanning about 50 years, Kibaki has demonstrated his hands-off policy. He has the tendency of giving people enough rope – if they mess up or hang themselves, it is up to them and if they make good the opportunity, he takes the credit," says Munene.
Yet still, some contend that Kibaki’s failure to name his choice means he has no deal with Kalonzo. He might also be sending a coded message to Uhuru, Ruto, Eugene Wamalwa and the crowd of hopefuls.
But when Kalonzo marked his 25 years in Parliament at a ceremony in Mwingi in April, last year, the President teased: "Anajua kazi yake na aendelee kuendelea hivyo hivyo. Anajua wakati wake sio dakika hii, kwa sababu kwa sasa kazi hii ina mwenyewe (He knows how to perform his duties and he should continue doing so. He also knows that this is not yet his time (for presidency), since at the moment, this job has an occupant).
That was the closest the President came to offering a hint on his preferred successor, although opinion remains divided.
Noting that Kibaki prefers to play his cards away from the public glare, Munene offers that the President, like any incumbent leaving office, wants an agreeable successor. Such an individual must be a trusted lieutenant who can protect him in retirement and guard his legacy.
On this score, Munene says Kalonzo and Uhuru score favourably. The Gatundu North MP, then leader of Official Opposition, sacrificed his presidential ambitions to back Kibaki’s bid. His Mwingi North counterpart also moved in to secure Kibaki’s presidency following an electoral impasse.
"The President is indebted to these two men and although he may wish to publicly throw his support behind his VP, as his principal deputy, it is not his nature to do so. Besides, he also wants to tell Kenyans that he trusts them to make a choice for themselves," says Munene.
Public rallies
Separately, Kalonzo has equally embarked on next year’s polls. Besides addressing public rallies, his main feature has been to host focus groups in behind the scenes.
"Even as focus shifts to containing hunger, for the VP this has been a continuous process courtesy of the Kalonzo Foundation," explains Kaplich Barsito, Kalonzo’s press secretary.
As campaigns peak, Kaplich concedes that the game has become a challenging one for the VP, who has to keep one eye on the campaign and another on the main seat.
Okwaro, a political affairs commentator, says the chase for Kibaki’s nod is also about business interests of the wealthy in central Kenya.
"The main concern is about who can best protect this and on this score alone most are convinced Uhuru is capable of doing a good job."
As VP, Kalonzo may be a heartbeat away from the presidency, but his key allies within ODM-Kenya point at some of his weaknesses that may impede his progress. Unlike competitors, Kalonzo is reportedly unwilling to play hard and dirty politics, including hiring heckling crowds and mercenaries to disorient opponents. Equally, his campaigns are comparatively deficient of sufficient resources.
"The guy just can’t stand or play propaganda politics, and we have warned that this will not work for him because this game is rough. But his philosophy remains that he be accepted or rejected for whom he is," said an ODM-Kenya allied MP, who declined to be named.

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