Why a fallout between Ruto and Uhuru is inevitable

By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, June 18 2011 at 22:10

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It’s only a metaphor. But it holds nuggets of wisdom. They say there’s no honour among thieves. That’s why I am predicting — here and now — the imminent collapse of the alliance between Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

Why? Because their pact was built on treacherous quicksand. Their “union” is like a “marriage” of the cobra and the fox. One is cunning, the other a predator. Both are hunters.

It’s an impossible, volatile mix. Which begs two questions: why did they come together, and why are they now being put asunder? It’s called politics. The odd man out here is Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, the third wheel of the much-touted KKK alliance.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto came together for two selfish and temporal reasons. Each of the reasons was a loaded dice. The first, and most important, was their predicament over the International Criminal Court.

The matter before the ICC is potentially a career-ender. Worse, it could leave them behind bars for decades in a far-away land. Literally, the ICC cases are a matter of life and death. I would be very surprised if the two get any sleep at all.

Misery loves company. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto aren’t dummies. They resorted to an old bag of tricks. They sought refuge in the tribe. In Kenya, a politician takes cover under the tribe’s skirt when in legal jeopardy.

But Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto knew that two “tribal skirts” are better than one. That’s why they sought to corral the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin into a “union”. They believed — mistakenly — that the ICC would be intimidated or manipulated by the twisted logic of tribal mobilisation.

They obviously didn’t seek my legal advice. How did they sell this simplistic plot to their ethnic supporters?

They played victims and claimed that Prime Minister Raila Odinga had orchestrated the ICC against them to remove them as challengers for the State House. They “tribalised” the ICC process.
Then they pulled in a willing Mr Musyoka and, by extension, the Akamba, to their side. This is the “trifecta” called the KKK.
The second reason Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto came together was to stop Mr Odinga from ascending to State House. Mr Kenyatta has an historical beef with Mr Odinga — and vice-versa. The two families have locked horns since independence. Their fathers turned into bitter foes.

Dismantled Kanu

The sons have inherited that bile. Mr Odinga dismantled Kanu and ended the young Mr Kenyatta’s bid for the presidency in 2002 when he formed Narc with Nak’s Mwai Kibaki.

Mr Kenyatta returned the favour in 2007 by supporting Mr Kibaki and PNU. Now the battlefield is being sown afresh for 2012 with the ICC as the fodder. That’s why Mr Kenyatta sought an alliance with Mr Ruto to trip Mr Odinga — again.

But what was in it for Mr Ruto? Mr Ruto is ambitiously complex. But he saw an opportunity in Mr Kenyatta’s woes. He was loath to play second and third fiddle in ODM to Mr Odinga and Local Government minister Musalia Mudavadi.
He seized on Mr Odinga’s support for the conservation of the Mau Complex and the prosecution of Kalenjin perpetrators of post-election violence to take ODM down.
This was his chance to emerge as the undisputed “king” of the Kalenjin. He believed he could bury the ghost of the Moi dynasty forever.

He thought an alliance with Mr Kenyatta and Mr Musyoka would deny Mr Odinga the State House, and possibly swing the gates open for him.
So, why hasn’t the Uhuru-Ruto alliance worked, and why is it faced with imminent collapse?

There are two reasons why the “centre” of this alliance “cannot hold”.

The first is the daunting reality of the ICC process. Ironically, it’s the ICC process, which brought them together, that will put them asunder.
Both have realised that it was a “fantasy theory” to think that the ICC would be disrupted by whipping up a tribal frenzy of the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin. It hasn’t worked.

The “unbwogable” ICC cannot be spooked. By all indications, the ICC is inexorably moving towards confirmation of charges in September. It’s going to be every man and woman for themselves.

Even more sobering is that either Mr Kenyatta or Mr Ruto — or both — may have to implicate each other before the court. There is every reason to think that any testimony they offer against each other may mitigate the severity of any eventual sanction.

Who knows — one may enter into a plea bargain with the court against the other. President Kibaki appears to have lost his zest for protecting the Ocampo Six from the ICC. He may care less as he nears retirement.
Impunity on the run
My guess is that the Ocampo Six will start to “rat each other out” in a bid to save their skins. They can sense that impunity appears to be on the run.
The second reason Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto will fall apart is grounded on the facts of post-election violence. Facts are stubborn things.

If you believe the ICC charges — and the Waki Report — the worst acts of violence were committed by the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin against each other.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would be unwise to believe that “their people” would abandon the quest for justice for heinous crimes to save their two careers. Mr Ruto has been told as much by a section of the Kalenjin. Mr Kenyatta should flip that message on the Kikuyu side.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.