Rift Valley in frantic search for messiah after Ruto’s summonses to The Hague

File | NATION A section of Rift Valley MPs during a political rally in Chepalungu in December 2009. Above: Eldoret North MP William Ruto, the de facto leader of the Kalenjin community. The region is looking for a new messiah after the ICC named Mr Ruto as one of the six suspected perpetrators of the 2007-8 election violence. 

By JULIUS SIGEI newsdesk@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Friday, March 18 2011 at 22:00

In Summary

• Confusion abounds in region as community begins to feel isolated and victimised

Immediately after the 2002 General Election in which retired president Daniel Moi’s chosen successor Uhuru Kenyatta was vanquished by Narc’s Mwai Kibaki, the Kalenjin community felt victimised and claimed its professionals were being purged from key government positions.

This triggered the community’s search for a Messiah.

In 2007, they saw a real possibility of regaining control of or at least being accommodated in government through ODM’s Raila Odinga, whom they adopted as one of their own and named Arap Mibei —He of the Waters.

They subsequently voted for him almost to a man. But things fell apart after the formation of the Grand Coalition Government over the manner in which post-election violence suspects would be tried and evictions to pave the way for the restoration of the Mau Forest which the PM was pushing for.

The evictions were perceived as targeting the Kalenjin community, a sentiment Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who is Mr Odinga’s deputy in ODM, was quick to exploit.

Since the fallout, Mr Ruto has been fighting for the support of the populous community and is now seen as the undisputed leader who will carry his people’s hopes in next year’s General Election.

But this grand march to State House appears to have suffered a major setback in December after International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo named him as one of the six suspected perpetrators of the 2007-8 election violence.

Another blow followed last Wednesday when the court issued summonses for the suspects to appear before the Pre-Trial Chamber on April 7.

This has sparked panic in the region and questions are flying about Rift Valley’s next move if the eloquent and young leader were to exit the stage.

Earlier, Mr Ruto was suspended from the Higher Education ministry over corruption allegations and soon after, ODM chairman Henry Kosgey, another of the Ocampo Six, stepped aside from his Industrialisation docket over a car importation scandal. Mr Kosgey is not only ODM chairman but was one of Mr Odinga’s most ardent defenders.

However, while conceding that the mood is that the community’s leaders are being targeted, Konoin MP Julius Kones was confident that Mr Ruto, Mr Kosgey and journalist Joshua arap Sang, the other Kalenjin named by Mr Moreno-Ocampo, will triumph “unless somebody manipulates the court.”

Also putting on a brave face was Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny, who declared that Mr Ruto’s woes would consolidate support for him.

“He has now become a martyr. Even the few remaining Raila allies will start jumping ship or mellowing because the community is in a foul mood and will not entertain any opinion that is seen to hurt it,” said Mr Kutuny.

Mr Kosgey and Ruto’s exit from Cabinet leaves only three ODM/UDM ministers from the community — Roads minister Franklin Bett, Agriculture minister Sally Kosgey and her East African Community counterpart Prof Hellen Sambili.

Of these, only Mr Bett is still seen to be close to the PM alongside assistant ministers Beatrice Kones and Magerer Lang’at, back benchers Wilson Litole, Julius Murgor, Musa Sirma and Dr Joyce Laboso.

But none of these has Mr Ruto’s wealth and political acumen.

Nominated MP Musa Sirma, a close ally of the PM, believes Mr Ruto, Mr Kosgey and Mr Sang will come out unscathed.

“In the unlikely event that they are indicted, the community has to do some soul-searching and prop up another leader,” he said.

He dismissed suggestions that Mr Moi could become more visible in a bid to regain the mantle which slipped from his hands in 2002.

University of Nairobi political scientist Adams Oloo said the political landscape in the province would only change if the ICC judges rule that they will proceed with the case.

He said the six are innocent until proven guilty but in the event Mr Ruto is indicted, four key players would be left scrambling for the spoils.

“There will be the former president saying ‘I told you so in 2007’; Mr Odinga trying to regain control of the region that was his for the asking in 2007 but has all but lost it; Mr Kalonzo, who has lately been projecting himself as a saviour of the community through the shuttle diplomacy he has been leading and Mr Ruto himself, who will try to wield control by remote control,” said Dr Oloo.

Others say Mr Ruto, having seen this coming, may anoint Information minister Samuel Poghisio, who is also ODM-Kenya’s chairman, providing the link with Mr Musyoka.

“The choice of Poghisio, who comes from a minority Kalenjin sub-tribe may be necessitated by the Kalonzo factor and the fact that Ruto may need somebody he can easily dislodge if he is cleared by the ICC,” said a political observer who did not want to be named.

Another MP from the region who has some clout outside his constituency and has been mentioned in the muted succession talk, is the fiery Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto.

The MP, however, has to contend with the threat of losing his parliamentary seat after his party moved to expel him and Livestock assistant minister Aden Duale last week.

“But all this speculation could come to naught as Mr Ruto could have a secret weapon he has yet to unleash. Already the government, through Internal Security minister Prof George Saitoti, Justice minister Mutula Kilonzo and Attorney General Amos Wako, has said it will challenge the admissibility of the case against the Ocampo Six and the jurisdiction of the ICC,” said Egerton University lecturer Dr Moses Malawi Rotich.

Other leaders, who are aware of the goings-on behind the scenes, said the government was exploring all possible ways to stop The Hague trials, including calling a snap election or a postponement of the next general election to allow two of the suspects who have declared an interest in the presidency to run.