THERE was definitely rigging in the December 27, 2007 general election but the American embassy could not decide who actually won the poll, according to the latest Wikileaks cables released last night.
Other cables reveal that President Kibaki was extremely reluctant to accept Raila Odinga into his government saying, "It is impossible to work with him".
WikiLeaks has over 2,500 cables sent by the American embassy in Nairobi to Washington DC but has so far has released less than 50. On January 17, 2008, three weeks after the disputed presidential election, Ambassador Michael Ranneberger dispatched an unclassified cable looking at the results of the election. "We found evidence of rigging on both sides and confirmation that some of the rigging took place inside ECK headquarters itself. By analysing various datasets, we developed scenarios that could point to either a Kibaki or a Raila victory. We do not think it will ever be possible to tell definitively who won the election. This is due in part to the compromise of the election officials and election-related ballots and forms, but also because our estimated number of 'ghost votes' (i.e. stuffed ballots) from both sides easily exceeded Kibaki’s margin of victory," states the cable.
The cable adds, "the cheating" in vote tallying at the Electoral Commission of Kenya between December 28 and 30 "was done exclusively by PNU partisans in Kibaki’s favour".
However the cable makes clear, "there was cheating at constituency level by the ODM and PNU". The cable then sets out an analysis trying to determine who won or lost the election.
It starts by pointing out that in six out of eight provinces there was a substantial difference between the number of presidential and parliamentary votes yet normally voters will vote for both an MP and a President. "Those discrepancies total 459,100 votes, or 4.6 per cent of all votes cast, dwarfing Kibaki's margin of victory (230,478 or 2.3 per cent of all votes cast). It is impossible to conclude definitely how many of these 'ghost votes' went to each candidate," states the cable.
The official result was that Kibaki received 4,583,358 votes compared to Raila's 4,352,880. The first dataset analysed by the US embassy comprised returns collected by the Standard newspaper for 198 out of 210 constituencies. In 117 constituencies, the results match the ECK but in 35 constituencies Kibaki gained 191,894 votes through discrepancies.
Elsewhere there were "141,579 votes inexplicably gained by Raila, indicating there was vote rigging by ECK returning officers on both sides". Under this scenario, the embassy concluded that Kibaki was still a narrow winner.
In a second dataset, the embassy subtracted from the ECK figures "discrepancies reported from the constituency level by a number of observers, monitors and other sources including two ECK contacts who provided documentary evidence to us of vote padding in favour of Kibaki in six constituencies by Nairobi-based ECK officials".
When these adjustments were made, Raila had a narrow margin of victory of 26,538.The embassy then combined the two datasets from the Standard and the observers and found that either Raila or Kibaki could have been the winner, depending on who was given "the benefit of the doubt". "All of these scenarios assume extensive cheating on both sides. In all cases, the margin of victory for either side is slim and ultimately unknowable". "Whoever won likely did so by a very slim margin. This flies in the face of the position adopted by the ODM and others as mantra: that the election was brazenly stolen by Kibaki's ECK insiders at the last moment and that Raila should have won by a large margin. It also contradicts any perception or conviction within the Kibaki camp that the latter clearly won the race," concludes the cable.
In an interesting postscript, a cable on February 8, 2008 stated that three ECK officials had received visa bans as they were "suspected of accepting bribes to fix election results tally at ECK headquarters".
Other cables detail international attempts to resolve the crisis caused by the disputed election. Ranneberger became a go-between, according to a cable on January 22.
Raila told the ambassador that he was ready to meet Kibaki "without preconditions" and Kibaki reluctantly agreed. "However the President made it clear that he has certain bottom lines and that he is deeply sceptical that Odinga will ever agree to anything 'reasonable'. Kibaki said 'I cannot have Odinga in the government. It is impossible to work with him. Some of his Penelope could come into government, but not him, and not Ruto’.”
Kibaki blamed Eldoret North MP William Ruto for the continuing violence in the Rift Valley and said, “Odinga must help restore normalcy" — although Kibaki said he did not blame Raila personally for the violence.
Ranneberger also met Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka who supported the idea of a meeting between Raila and Kibaki although he believed that “Odinga should remain outside of government as leader of opposition in Parliament”.
Ranneberger therefore concluded that a meeting between Kibaki, Raila and Kofi Annan was viable when the former UN Secretary General arrived on January 22.
A cable on January 22 said that Uganda President “Museveni’s preferred outcome was a power-sharing arrangement” as he was “apparently in agreement with our argument that the actual vote in Kenya was a virtual draw”.
A final cable of February 27, 2008 raised concerns that “hardline elements from both sides are organising for more violence should the peace talks fail”.
It states that Kenya “has generally enjoyed an interlude of relative calm” although “ethnically motivated evictions continue to occur around the country, including in parts of Nairobi”.
The cable referred to reports of militias being formed in the Rift Valley, Central Province (Mungiki and the ‘Forest Guard’) and at the Coast.
The embassy was also concerned that the police boss in Nyanza had reportedly just “issued a stunning directive to his station commanders telling them that during any future political protests in the region, deadly force is immediately authorised”. “Whether the genie of ethnic based violence can be put back in the bottle or not clearly hinges on the outcome of the Kofi Annan talks,” the cable concludes.
Other cables reveal that President Kibaki was extremely reluctant to accept Raila Odinga into his government saying, "It is impossible to work with him".
WikiLeaks has over 2,500 cables sent by the American embassy in Nairobi to Washington DC but has so far has released less than 50. On January 17, 2008, three weeks after the disputed presidential election, Ambassador Michael Ranneberger dispatched an unclassified cable looking at the results of the election. "We found evidence of rigging on both sides and confirmation that some of the rigging took place inside ECK headquarters itself. By analysing various datasets, we developed scenarios that could point to either a Kibaki or a Raila victory. We do not think it will ever be possible to tell definitively who won the election. This is due in part to the compromise of the election officials and election-related ballots and forms, but also because our estimated number of 'ghost votes' (i.e. stuffed ballots) from both sides easily exceeded Kibaki’s margin of victory," states the cable.
The cable adds, "the cheating" in vote tallying at the Electoral Commission of Kenya between December 28 and 30 "was done exclusively by PNU partisans in Kibaki’s favour".
However the cable makes clear, "there was cheating at constituency level by the ODM and PNU". The cable then sets out an analysis trying to determine who won or lost the election.
It starts by pointing out that in six out of eight provinces there was a substantial difference between the number of presidential and parliamentary votes yet normally voters will vote for both an MP and a President. "Those discrepancies total 459,100 votes, or 4.6 per cent of all votes cast, dwarfing Kibaki's margin of victory (230,478 or 2.3 per cent of all votes cast). It is impossible to conclude definitely how many of these 'ghost votes' went to each candidate," states the cable.
The official result was that Kibaki received 4,583,358 votes compared to Raila's 4,352,880. The first dataset analysed by the US embassy comprised returns collected by the Standard newspaper for 198 out of 210 constituencies. In 117 constituencies, the results match the ECK but in 35 constituencies Kibaki gained 191,894 votes through discrepancies.
Elsewhere there were "141,579 votes inexplicably gained by Raila, indicating there was vote rigging by ECK returning officers on both sides". Under this scenario, the embassy concluded that Kibaki was still a narrow winner.
In a second dataset, the embassy subtracted from the ECK figures "discrepancies reported from the constituency level by a number of observers, monitors and other sources including two ECK contacts who provided documentary evidence to us of vote padding in favour of Kibaki in six constituencies by Nairobi-based ECK officials".
When these adjustments were made, Raila had a narrow margin of victory of 26,538.The embassy then combined the two datasets from the Standard and the observers and found that either Raila or Kibaki could have been the winner, depending on who was given "the benefit of the doubt". "All of these scenarios assume extensive cheating on both sides. In all cases, the margin of victory for either side is slim and ultimately unknowable". "Whoever won likely did so by a very slim margin. This flies in the face of the position adopted by the ODM and others as mantra: that the election was brazenly stolen by Kibaki's ECK insiders at the last moment and that Raila should have won by a large margin. It also contradicts any perception or conviction within the Kibaki camp that the latter clearly won the race," concludes the cable.
In an interesting postscript, a cable on February 8, 2008 stated that three ECK officials had received visa bans as they were "suspected of accepting bribes to fix election results tally at ECK headquarters".
Other cables detail international attempts to resolve the crisis caused by the disputed election. Ranneberger became a go-between, according to a cable on January 22.
Raila told the ambassador that he was ready to meet Kibaki "without preconditions" and Kibaki reluctantly agreed. "However the President made it clear that he has certain bottom lines and that he is deeply sceptical that Odinga will ever agree to anything 'reasonable'. Kibaki said 'I cannot have Odinga in the government. It is impossible to work with him. Some of his Penelope could come into government, but not him, and not Ruto’.”
Kibaki blamed Eldoret North MP William Ruto for the continuing violence in the Rift Valley and said, “Odinga must help restore normalcy" — although Kibaki said he did not blame Raila personally for the violence.
Ranneberger also met Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka who supported the idea of a meeting between Raila and Kibaki although he believed that “Odinga should remain outside of government as leader of opposition in Parliament”.
Ranneberger therefore concluded that a meeting between Kibaki, Raila and Kofi Annan was viable when the former UN Secretary General arrived on January 22.
A cable on January 22 said that Uganda President “Museveni’s preferred outcome was a power-sharing arrangement” as he was “apparently in agreement with our argument that the actual vote in Kenya was a virtual draw”.
A final cable of February 27, 2008 raised concerns that “hardline elements from both sides are organising for more violence should the peace talks fail”.
It states that Kenya “has generally enjoyed an interlude of relative calm” although “ethnically motivated evictions continue to occur around the country, including in parts of Nairobi”.
The cable referred to reports of militias being formed in the Rift Valley, Central Province (Mungiki and the ‘Forest Guard’) and at the Coast.
The embassy was also concerned that the police boss in Nyanza had reportedly just “issued a stunning directive to his station commanders telling them that during any future political protests in the region, deadly force is immediately authorised”. “Whether the genie of ethnic based violence can be put back in the bottle or not clearly hinges on the outcome of the Kofi Annan talks,” the cable concludes.
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