OPPOSITION POLITICS: SUSPICION, ALLIES

Viewing cable 07NAIROBI1439, OPPOSITION POLITICS: SUSPICION, ALLIES, AND A

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Reference ID	Created	Released	Classification	Origin
07NAIROBI1439	2007-03-30 10:10	2011-03-14 21:09	CONFIDENTIAL	Embassy Nairobi

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C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001439 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2027 
TAGS: PREL KDEM PGOV KE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION POLITICS: SUSPICION, ALLIES, AND A 
HUMMER 
 
REF: NAIROBI 1128 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre for reasons 
1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Two opposition insiders recently shared 
their views on the current state of play within ODM-Kenya 
party ranks.  While there is plenty of suspicion and 
alliance-making, there is still no apparent movement towards 
consensus on a single ODM-K presidential candidate or even on 
how to pick that candidate.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) In a recent conversation, Njee Muturi, Acting 
Executive Director of the KANU Party and personal assistant 
to Uhuru Kenyatta, and Member of Parliament Kiema Kilonzo, 
self-described best friend to top-polling ODM-K presidential 
hopeful Kalonzo Musyoka, told poloff that the opposition 
coalition ODM-K party is suffering organizational 
difficulties and mistrust (mostly directed at MP Raila 
Odinga).  Muturi and Kilonzo represent the camps of two of 
ODM-K's seven presidential hopefuls.  Muturi and Kilonzo also 
indicated that the party has yet to agree on a mechanism for 
selecting a candidate among the aspirants. 
 
Suspicions Abound 
----------------- 
¶3.  (C) Muturi and Kilonzo both expressed frustration at the 
progress of their coalition ODM-K party.  Confirming media 
reports that the administrative organization of ODM-K is 
overwhelmingly Raila-centric, Muturi commented that KANU, a 
"corporate" member of the coalition, is operating entirely on 
its own, parallel to ODM-K.  He indicated that one of his 
goals was to integrate KANU more closely into the ODM 
secretariat, which is essentially LDP (Raila's and Musyoka's 
 
SIPDIS 
party) with a name change. 
 
¶4.  (C) Despite this goal, Muturi confessed that he thought 
after the "London fiasco" that ODM was finished.  Muturi was 
referring to the planned ODM retreat in London in early March 
that was abruptly called off when several of the party's 
presidential aspirants backed out (reftel).  Raila, on his 
way back from the US (bringing a gift armored, red Hummer), 
went ahead with the London fundraiser.  The money he gathered 
from supporters such as expat Kenyan Gilbert Deya, whose name 
has been mentioned in connection with an alleged baby selling 
scam, would go straight into Raila's pockets, and not the 
ODM-K party treasury, Kilonzo and Muturi remarked.  Both men 
joked about Raila,s arrogance, recounting a story that Raila 
or his people told: the reason the other ODM candidates 
backed out of the London trip was that there were 16 people 
signed up to sit with Raila at a fundraiser dinner (at 1,000 
pounds a seat) two for Uhuru, and none for Kalonzo. 
 
The Twist in the ODM Plot 
------------------------- 
¶5.  (C) The men disagreed, however, on Raila,s true 
intentions this election year.  Muturi was certain Raila does 
not actually expect to be president.  Raila knows he will not 
win, and he is a clever man, Muturi offered.  Instead, he 
wants to be kingmaker, but not for a renegade king like 
Kibaki turned out to be.  Raila wants a king who will jump 
when Raila says jump, he said.  (COMMENT: Raila is 
overwhelmingly popular among his own Luo people, who make up 
about 14 percent of Kenya's population.  However, he has 
"high negatives" almost everywhere else in the country.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
¶6.  (C) Who does Raila want to be president?, poloff asked 
Muturi.  Musalia Mudavadi, a late-entrant to the litany of 
ODM presidential aspirants, a former VP whom Raila convinced 
to enter the contest, Muturi said.  When a national 
delegates, conference fails to give any one aspirant 51 
percent (as stipulated in the ODM-K constitution), Raila will 
push for Mudavadi as a compromise candidate, he explained. 
(NOTE: ODM is considering two methods for choosing its 
candidate: the delegates' conference and "consensus" by which 
all aspirants will agree among themselves who will run.  END 
NOTE.)  Raila does not even want the national conference 
process to work, Muturi added.  Raila's ally and ODM-K 
Executive Secretary MP Peter Nyong'o told PolCouns recently 
that Mudavadi would be a good compromise candidate, but he 
preferred one of the first tier candidates, i.e. Raila or 
Musyoka. 
 
¶7.  (C) Kilonzo thought otherwise, noting that he did not 
think it possible that Raila would step aside to support 
someone else.  Kalonzo Musyoka, on the other hand, does want 
a national delegates conference.  Kalonzo "naively" thinks it 
will work out, Kilonzo said.  In his own opinion, however, 
Kilonzo added, the process of selecting delegates will be so 
prone to abuse and rigging (by the government), it will be 
worthless.  If Kalonzo is not the candidate, he will throw 
his support to Uhuru, Kilonzo stated.  Kilonzo and Muturi 
offered two possible presidential/vice presidential candidate 
combinations: William Ruto (another ODM hopeful) would be 
Mudavadi,s running mate, or Uhuru would be Kalonzo,s.  Both 
agreed, however, that a ticket with both the president and 
the vice president from neighboring regions would not work, 
which is exactly what the two scenarios they described are. 
 
"Our" Votes Falling Behind? 
--------------------------- 
¶8.  (C) Both men said they were frustrated that by "rigging" 
the voter registration process, Kibaki had pretty much locked 
up the necessary votes to win later this year.  Muturi said 
with an increase over 2002 in the number of registered voters 
among the Kikuyu, Embu and Meru ethnic groups they now total 
5.1 million votes of the 12.5 million total. 
 
¶9.  (C) COMMENT: Show-boating is one of Raila's best skills 
and the Hummer achieved exactly the effect he hoped for: 
front page coverage from all the dailies.  It also earned him 
derisive comments from those who are ostensibly supporters of 
a unified ODM party.  While it is difficult to imagine that 
Raila's proclamation that he is the one to next occupy State 
House is merely rhetoric, there is a precedent for him 
stepping aside to support a "national" candidate.  He 
recognized in 2002 that Kibaki was the only one who could 
beat Uhuru.  One certainty is that the whispering suspicion 
and mistrust within ODM undermines the party's public claims 
of unity.  END COMMENT. 
RANNEBERGER