Kibaki ‘set Raila up’ in Migingo dispute

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni (right) and Prime Minister Raila Odinga met at State House, Entebbe. The two leaders held talks on settling the territorial controversy between Kenya and Uganda over the Migingo Island. Photo/PMPS 

By Macharia Gaitho mgaitho@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Tuesday, March 8 2011 at 22:00

In Summary

• US ambassador Ranneberger thought the President did not react strongly enough about island as a way of taking wind off the premier’s sail

President Kibaki did not take strong action against Uganda for ‘grabbing’ Migingo Island to politically undermine Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

That was the thinking by US embassy officials in Nairobi, as revealed by secret diplomatic cables made public by whistleblower website WikiLeaks.

“There is some speculation that Kibaki’s silence on the issue is designed to embarrass Prime Minister Odinga, showing him to be powerless to resolve the dispute which negatively affects his ethnic Luo community,” American ambassador Michael Ranneberger wrote in a despatch to his superiors in Washington.

The cable analyses the background to the tiny disputed island on Lake Victoria, the way it has impacted on Kenya-Uganda relations and also become a political dispute in Kenya.

The Ugandan “seizure” of Migingo island is an emotive issue among Kenyans living around Lake Victoria, who also form the bedrock of Mr Odinga’s political support.

While the Prime Minister was quick at the onset of the dispute to declare that the island was Kenyan territory and suggest strong action to regain it, President Kibaki always emphasised a diplomatic approach.

“Odinga has called strongly for his government to defend its territory, but the coalition government has been lax to act,” Mr Ranneberger wrote, “many see this as part of Kibaki’s PNU party attempting to make Odinga’s ODM party look feeble. Kibaki’s refusal to act on Odinga’s call to defend the nation is both political and practical: Kibaki sees Museveni as a close ally and he has nothing to gain at this point by forcefully attempting to assert Kenyan sovereignty.”

The cable goes on to look at how the dispute has impacted on Kenya-Uganda relations; and particularly on relations between Mr Odinga and President Yoweri Museveni, that were already strained over suspicions that the latter was too quick to recognise President Kibaki’s victory claim after the disputed 2007 elections.

There were also allegations at the beginning of the post-election violence that President Museveni had sent soldiers into Kenya to support government effort at containing fighting in Kisumu and other parts of western Kenya.

“The dispute has elevated the political drama in the Kenyan government, and brought into focus the long-simmering rivalry between PM Odinga and Ugandan President Museveni,” Ranneberger wrote.

“The dispute has threatened relations between the two traditional trade partners.  Anti-Ugandan sentiment has become more widespread in Kenya, especially in the western districts and in a Luo-dominated Nairobi slum. A section of the Kenya-Uganda Railway, one of Uganda’s major commercial arteries, was ripped up in Nairobi’s Kibera slum by angry Kenyans who were demanding the return of Migingo.  Kibera happens to be in the Prime Minister’s parliamentary district, and is home to many ethnic Luo from western Kenya. Vehicles in Kenya bound for Uganda have also been held up by Kenyan civilians in western Kenya.  The dispute has provided an outlet for many Luo who believe that Museveni sought to influence the outcome of the 2007 presidential elections in Kenya by sending an early congratulatory message to Kibaki and allegedly dispatching Ugandan soldiers to western Kenya to help put down dissent over the election results.”

The cable goes on to indicate that an expensive new re-mapping of the border was unlikely to resolve the issue unless it came with a political solution, noting that both sides had ignored British government offer to help resolve the exact boundary line.

The British High Commission in Nairobi offered officials from Kenya and Uganda access to its records which indicated that Migingo lay in Kenyan waters.

“In the meantime, the dispute has proven to be an excellent distraction as the nation grapples with severe drought and food shortages, high unemployment and inflation, and growing public frustration with the coalition government’s inability to improve conditions and its dithering over implementation of meaningful reforms.”