Gichugu MP Martha Karua may back Prime Minister Raila Odinga in the 2012 presidential race, according to an assessment by US ambassador Michael Ranneberger.
A diplomatic cable released by Wikileaks yesterday says the ambassador told Washington DC that Karua may act as a “spoiler” for Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta's presidential bid.
The cable dated April 24, 2009 says Karua could not eclipse Uhuru in the Central Kenya vote but she could easily deny the Finance minister 2012 victory if she backed Raila. “We think the chances are small that Karua will eclipse Kenyatta due to her lack of a financial base and a strong cultural bias against women leaders. However, she has the potential to play the spoiler. Karua made a point of reaching out to Prime Minister Raila Odinga when she was a sitting minister. Short of being the GEMA (Gikuyu Embu Meru Association) candidate in 2012, Karua may ally with Odinga to ruin Kenyatta's chances of victory as well as position herself for a senior position in an Odinga government,” said Ranneberger.
Ranneberger sent his cable after meeting with Kikuyu MP and Local Government assistant minister Lewis Nguyai, who is considered close to Uhuru. Nguyai had estimated that if Karua managed to deliver 10 percent of Central Kenya votes to Raila that would be enough to deny Uhuru the presidency.
Describing Nguyai as a "reformed-minded Central Province MP", Ranneberger said the MP had estimated that "if Karua could deliver ten percent of the Kikuyu vote, it would be enough to secure an Odinga victory in 2012."
Ranneberger told Washington of "a second potential front of opposition to Uhuru" presented by "the youthful and reformist" Planning assistant minister Peter Kenneth who is the Gatanga MP. "A group of approximately 20 MPs from the GEMA communities have coalesced around Kenneth. He is widely accepted as a non-nationalist voice of reason and has good relations with other ethnic communities. Thus, Kenneth might be inclined to lead this bloc to a less GEMA-focused approach to alliances,” added the envoy.
The diplomat said Uhuru's wealth could easily be used to eclipse his political opponents. "Kenyatta, who is far better off financially than either Karua or Kenneth, will not hesitate to use his wealth to buy off his rivals' supporters, thereby diminishing their prospect to derail his political ambitions,” said Ranneberger.
In his assessment, the envoy said “the candidate of the GEMA establishment” would need to reach out to other ethnic groups to expand his or her power base.
Ranneberger mentioned talk of a possible 2012 political alliance between Uhuru and Eldoret North MP William Ruto whom he described as the leader of the “Kalenjin bloc.” “A Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance makes sense for two reasons: it would expand support for Kenyatta and undercut Odinga, who relies heavily on Kalenjin support. We believe that tactical cooperation between Kenyatta and Ruto will continue where they have mutual interests, but that a formal alliance is unlikely, at least in the short-term,” the ambassador told Washington.
An embassy analysis of the situation indicated that such an alliance would not yet be acceptable to the Kalenjins at the grassroots level who still felt aggrieved by unaddressed land issues and perceived Kikuyu condescension towards them. “Also, Ruto has his own presidential ambitions and would be unlikely to enter into an alliance to play second fiddle to Kenyatta. The Kikuyu, too, would be sceptical of any alliance with Ruto, who is widely believed to have organised and financed attacks on Kikuyu in Rift Valley in the post-election violence,” the envoy added.
Though he is one of the six suspects summoned by the International Criminal Court over the 2007-08 post-election violence, Ruto has vehemently denied that he was involved in financing or organising the mayhem.
In his assessment, Ranneberger claimed the decades-long nearly “monolithic support" that Central Province and the Gema communities had given the political establishment controlled by President Kibaki and his circle had started to wane with political and economic depression opening up the region to increasing political competition. “If either Karua or Kenneth succeed in attracting significant support away from the political establishment, GEMA voters may be forced to make political choices based on the direction of the country and implementation of the reform agenda rather than ethnic considerations,” added Ranneberger.“The GEMA political establishment is aware of the dangers of splitting the GEMA vote, as happened in 1992 when Kibaki and Kenneth Matiba split Central Province, allowing Daniel Moi to be re-elected, and will fight hard to marginalise these challenges," the envoy said.
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