Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Raila faces tricky political situation after Ocampo fingers Kosgey and Ruto


By PETER LEFTIE pmutibo@ke.nationmedia.comPosted Saturday, December 18 2010 at 21:00
In Summary
  • Naming of Raila stalwart, Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey, as one of chief instigators of the post-election violence seems to have caught ODM by surprise and could deal a body blow to PM’s political future

Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s statement in Parliament on Thursday afternoon aptly captured the central role played by Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey in ODM politics.
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“I am the party leader of ODM; my deputy party leader is there (on the Ocampo list), my national chairman is there . . . so I am the most agonised person,” the PM told MPs while responding to questions about the government’s stand on the ICC process.
Mr Odinga was referring to Mr Kosgey, the ODM national chairman, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, the deputy party leader.
The PM was responding to a query raised by Belgut MP Charles Keter about why of the six persons accused of bearing the greatest responsibility for the mass killings after the 2007 election three are from the Kalenjin community.
Addressing a press conference a few hours later, the party’s other deputy leader Musalia Mudavadi also spoke out in support of Mr Kosgey, saying ODM would give him and the other five “all the moral support they may require”.
“It caught all of us by surprise, that is all I can say,” Mr Mudavadi told the Sunday Nation in a subsequent interview.
On Saturday, politicians and political analysts were in agreement that Mr Kosgey’s exit from the scene as a result of the ICC trials may dent the party and deal Mr Odinga a body blow from which he may find it hard to recover.
Until the announcement Wednesday by the ICC prosecutor, Mr Kosgey remained the face of ODM in Rift Valley and Mr Odinga’s most trusted political ally in a region that has been fast drifting away over differences between the PM and Mr Ruto.
In Mr Kosgey, the PM found a vastly experienced political ally who could be counted on to stick out his neck even in the most difficult political situations. The minister is said to be a wealthy man with vast business interests.
With Mr Ruto leading the Kalenjin community towards the ‘No’ camp during the referendum campaigns, it was to Mr Kosgey that the PM turned to spearhead the ‘Yes’ campaign in the Rift Valley.
It is Mr Kosgey who had also stuck his neck out for Mr Odinga when he ran into trouble with the community over the controversial Mau evictions.    
“As a community we are mourning, our people are really affected given that out of the six names, three of them are from the Nandi community, I do not want to speculate on what Kosgey’s situation means to ODM,” the party’s Director of Elections Joseph Misoi said on Saturday.
“This violence was not planned by the community; it was spontaneous and caused by the stolen vote,” he added.
Biggest losers
Uasin Gishu Narc-Kenya pointsman Kipkorir Menjo said Mr Ocampo¹s move would have a serious impact on the country¹s political landscape.
For him, the biggest losers are Mr Kibaki and Mr Odinga because their two closest allies, Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Kosgey, may be out of the political equation come 2012 as a result of the ICC trials.
“We may have a new political realignment altogether with a new crop of leaders. I foresee parties perceived to be small benefiting a lot. We should expect new faces in the presidential race because I fear the cases against the six may not be concluded before 2012, and they will therefore not be eligible to run for any public office,” he said.
Similar views were echoed by university don and political analyst Prof Macharia Munene, who said Mr Kosgey’s inclusion on the list of six was a big blow to Mr Odinga’s fortunes in the North Rift.
“The mentioning of Kosgey is, of course, a big loss to Raila. Kosgey is one of the few Kalenjins still with him. He was the face of Raila and ODM in the region. The fortunes of ODM have been seriously eroded in the region,” Prof Munene told the Sunday Nation.
A source close to Mr Odinga, who did not want to be named because of fear of antagonising his relationship, said the PM’s biggest headache was finding a replacement for Mr Kosgey in Kalenjin land in the event that Mr Kosgey is forced to leave the political scene.


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Raila faces tricky political situation after Ocampo fingers Kosgey and Ruto

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By PETER LEFTIE pmutibo@ke.nationmedia.comPosted Saturday, December 18 2010 at 21:00
In Summary
  • Naming of Raila stalwart, Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey, as one of chief instigators of the post-election violence seems to have caught ODM by surprise and could deal a body blow to PM’s political future

“Sally (Kosgei, the Agriculture minister) is perceived as elitist in that region, while Bett (Franklin) has not come out strongly and also lacks the clout and muscle Mr Kosgey brings to ODM. That is the problem. They are all lightweights and rather inexperienced,” said the source who is based at the PM’s office.

That Mr Kosgey brings invaluable political clout to ODM, especially in the North Rift, has been demonstrated by the spirited defence Mr Odinga’has always accorded him whenever he runs into trouble when discharging his ministerial duties.
When Mr Kosgey ran into trouble recently over the appointment of the new Kenya Bureau of Standards (KEBS) director with demands that he steps aside, Mr Odinga was quick to defend him, saying nobody should be hounded out of office on “mere allegations”.
When he was publicly accused by his assistant minister Nderitu Mureithi of improperly firing three heads of parastatals in July last year, it was Mr Odinga who intervened and ordered that the directors remain in office until the correct procedures could be instituted to remove them. They remain in office to date.
Additional reporting by Wycliff Kipsang

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