Saturday, December 25, 2010

Raila ahead of the pack in race for President, latest survey shows

Related StoriesBy PETER OPIYO
Prime Minister Raila Odinga would win the presidential race if elections were called today.
In an opinion survey conducted by Synovate (formerly Steadman), 42 per cent of those interviewed chose the PM for the top job.
Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta took second spot at 14 per cent and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka came third at 12 per cent.
Gichugu MP Martha Karua has five per cent, Eldoret North MP William Ruto is at four per cent, while Eugene Wamalwa has two per cent.
In the survey conducted between December 17 and December 23, Raila’s rating, however, dropped by six points from 48 per cent in October, while Uhuru and Kalonzo’s ratings remained the same over the same period.
Ruto’s rating also fell by six points from ten per cent in October to four per cent, while Karua’s dropped by one point.
Ruto’s grip in Rift Valley has, however, dropped from 28 to ten per cent while Uhuru’s rating in his Central backyard massively dropped from 49 to 27 per cent.
Synovate lead researcher Tom Wolf attributes this to their names being mentioned by ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo.
"For Uhuru, maybe the people are unhappy with him being named by Ocampo and this also applies to Ruto. Also the suspension of Ruto from the Cabinet over graft charges may have contributed to this," said Mr Wolf.
In the provincial category, Raila leads in Nairobi by 39 per cent, followed by Uhuru at 15 per cent, Kalonzo at eight per cent, Karua four per cent, and Ruto at three per cent. Uhuru has 27 per cent in Central Province, Raila has 22, Kalonzo 15, Karua 12, and Ruto has nothing.
In Eastern, Raila is neck and neck with Kalonzo at 28 per cent, and 27 per cent, Uhuru registered 16 per cent, Karua six and Ruto four.
Raila has 58 per cent in Coast, Kalonzo has six per cent, Uhuru has five, and Ruto registered four per cent, while Karua has two per cent.
Of the respondents interviewed in Nyanza, 67 per cent prefer Raila, seven per cent opt for Kalonzo, six per cent prefer Uhuru, four per cent would vote for Karua, while one per cent prefer Ruto.
In the Rift Valley, perceived to be Ruto’s stronghold, Raila is leading with 29 per cent, Uhuru has 20 per cent, Kalonzo has 12 per cent while Ruto has ten per cent. Karua registered six per cent in the province.
Running mateIn Western, 54 per cent would vote for Raila, six per cent for Uhuru, five per cent for Kalonzo, while Ruto and Karua registered three per cent each. North-Eastern has Raila as the preferred candidate at 45 per cent, followed by Uhuru at 17 per cent, Kalonzo and Karua at four per cent each, and Ruto at three per cent.
Although the new Constitution requires a presidential candidate makes known his running mate prior to the polls, the pollster did not float the idea to respondents.
The polls, in which 2,011 respondents were interviewed, ODM remains the most popular party registering 38 per cent approval, followed by PNU at 18 per cent, ODM-Kenya two per cent and Narc-Kenya two.

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