Why Mutava Musyimi is a man to watch

By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, November 6 2010 at 13:22

The PNU 2012 presidential strategy, which pivots on the KKK alliance, has virtually collapsed.

The suspension of Cabinet minister William Ruto, a pillar of the KKK axis, is undoubtedly a nail in that coffin.

Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta, the other key pillars of that trio, are gasping for political air.

By equivocating on the new Constitution, the two gave Prime Minister Raila Odinga an early gift in the race for State House. President Mwai Kibaki now appears more comfortable with Mr Odinga than at any time in his life.

This means that Mr Kibaki may want to go down in history as the Kikuyu who anointed Mr Odinga, a Luo, for President. But Mr Kibaki may not hold the key to who succeeds him.

That’s why it’s highly unlikely that the house of Mumbi will retain the State House unless it comes up with a plausible alternative to the line up of presidential hopefuls sympathetic to its cause.

Which begs the question – does the house of Mumbi have a Plan B? I believe the Reverend Mutava Musyimi, the MP for Gachoka, could be PNU’s secret weapon for 2012. Mr Musyimi is a PNU stealth candidate who will catch ODM off guard.

Mr Musyimi is a dark horse, but he could quickly catch fire and give Mr Odinga a run for his money. This scenario is neither implausible, nor farfetched.

Once the KKK is decimated by the ICC, PNU may turn to Mr Musyimi as the only credible untainted outsider with a chance to trip Mr Odinga.

Why Mr Musyimi, a man who has not exactly distinguished himself in Parliament? That’s precisely the point. Mr Musyimi has flown below the radar.

That’s why he has relatively little baggage. Although he sympathised with the No campaign, he was not out front. This was smart politics.

He was not rabidly obstructionist but kept the Church on his side. Mr Musyimi may believe that overexposure could lead to public fatigue and damage his chances.

He is counting on Kenya’s socially conservative electorate to favour him against the more politically aggressive Mr Odinga.

There is no doubt that Mr Musyimi is a calculating and well connected political animal. He has a reformist legacy from his leadership of the NCCK and Ufungamano when he took on the Moi dictatorship.

The big office

When he announced his departure from the church organisation in 2007, he summed up his 14 years of service saying “I have fought the good fight, I have finished the race, I have kept the faith”.

Around that time, talk was rife that he was going to run for the big office with questions being raised as to whether he was the great leader that the country had been waiting for. But Mr Musyimi went for the Gachoka parliamentary seat and snatched it from Cabinet minister Joseph Nyagah.

As things stand today, PNU would turn to Mr Musyimi because of a tribal calculus. If you assume that PNU is largely the party of the “Bantu” – or at least anchored in that demographic – then Mr Musyimi is the perfect choice.

He is the quintessential “Mundu”. He is the perfect composite of the Kikuyu, Kamba, Embu and Meru. He is Gema itself. He speaks all the four languages and has extensive kinship ties and deep cultural links with all of them.

He could be a member of any of these groups on instant recall. He is a “Kamba” who is an MP in Embu. I do not know of any other senior politician from the region who can claim to be a true melting pot of the four groups.

You might wonder why the House of Mumbi would abandon Mr Musyoka for Mr Musyimi, especially after the former helped secure State House for Mr Kibaki in the wake of the disputed 2007 elections.

The answer is simple. Mr Musyoka may not sell as easily in the Mt Kenya region after the collapse of the KKK.

Then there is the trust factor. Mr Musyoka comes across as too wily and scripted. Why would Gema – and Mr Kibaki – trust him to protect their interests?

Mr Musyimi, on the other hand, is a better known quantity to Gema and a darling of the clergy in the region. He is “one of them”. He is a non-Kikuyu “Kikuyu” they can vote for in 2012.

Mr Musyimi is reputed to be close to Mr Kibaki. This is not insignificant because absent a clear PNU successor, the house of Mumbi will look to Mr Kibaki for some guidance.

I have a strong feeling that if Mr Kibaki doesn’t endorse Mr Odinga, he would go with Mr Musyimi.

Greatest roadblock

Kenyan history shows that moderate, status quo politicians usually emerge victorious. The country is a graveyard for progressive politics. Maybe that will change in 2012.

Perhaps it won’t. This is the big unknown that Mr Odinga must worry about. His greatest roadblock to State House could be Mr Musyimi.

Mr Musyimi is a powerful and eloquent orator. He cuts the figure of a statesman. He was touted once as a compromise presidential candidate. He enjoys international support, including from some quarters in the United States.

While at the NCCK, he cultivated grassroots support among the laity and clergy across the country. He is connected to wealthy businesspeople in the Mt Kenya region. If he runs – which I bet he will – Mr Musyimi could be a formidable candidate.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.